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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on May, 29 2009 @ 06:50 PM
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Dow closed at the top of the trading range on low volume. GBM called the spike to resistance level perfectly, this is getting boring. The GM bankruptcy must be priced into the market so what do we have in store next week that could move the markets?




posted on May, 29 2009 @ 07:10 PM
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Next week's news
Jun 01 08:30 a.m. Personal Income
Jun 01 08:30 a.m. Personal Spending
Jun 01 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending
Jun 01 10:00 a.m. ISM Index May
Jun 02 10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Apr
Jun 02 02:00 p.m. Auto Sales May
Jun 02 02:00 p.m. Truck Sales May
Jun 03 08:15 a.m. ADP Employment Change May
Jun 03 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders Apr
Jun 03 10:00 a.m. ISM Services May
Jun 03 10:30 a.m. Crude Inventories
Jun 04 08:30 a.m. Initial Claims
Jun 04 08:30 a.m. Productivity-Rev. Q1
Jun 04 08:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs Q1
Jun 05 08:30 a.m. Average Workweek May
Jun 05 08:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings May
Jun 05 08:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls May
Jun 05 08:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate May
Jun 05 02:00 p.m. Consumer Credit



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 07:26 PM
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reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 


Thank you for those kind words.

NASDAQ is what we should all be looking at, i keep harping on it, but its super important



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 07:28 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


No doubt, there are a few that have exponentially "raised the roof"

J CREW is one for sure...



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 08:39 PM
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So I have been talking a lot about natty gas lately..

Here is something that might clear it up a little bit

Even though, this is not exactly what I follow UNG (NAT GAS ETF) finally broke out of a YEAR LONG DOWNTREND

Now, this is obvious, even to a moron like myself..

Remember, when something breaks out, it will shoot up, fall back and either bounce or test the resistance and use that as a support (in a perfect world) And I believe this is what is happening

Now im sure no one remembers when I was harping on SP500 breaking its yearlong resistance at around 690 or 710 when everyone was hating on me.. but this is almost the same exact chart....

Ill let you all make up your minds from here..

I have drawn both support and resistance in RED


Naaaattty Gas (UNG) - ETF



EDIT:

Also, please notice the correlation in high volume at these new levels..

[edit on 29-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 08:45 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
914-916 on the ESM9 for a breakout to the positive side as well...

Ive been pretty good at reading these lately with some studies I have been doing (i.e. call on dow earlier this afternoon)

Not that I am always right or anything, but I have a better chance than flipping a coin



Closed at 919 on the SP 500....

IMHO next week could be a blockbuster.. we need to break those #1 Resistance points though that I showed in multiple posts who knows how many pages back...

NASDAQ - SP500 at KEY LEVELS

DJIA is always a laggard.. but will follow what they do.. espically NASDAQ.. remember NASDAQ, like the HANG SENG is a catalyst for what is to come...

______________________________________


So IrishChic - 500 more points till you are taking me out to dinner.. Im quite high maintenance, just to let you know ahead of time. And dont try backing out, Ive already forged your signature in a poorly drawn Paint bitmap that I cant even post b/c it is too ******* up for even me hahahaha



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 08:47 PM
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reply to post by Hx3_1963
 


Hey man whats up, youre not on this thread too often anymore...

GOLD at 97x.xx ....

Have to admit I was fooled on that one, that is for sure.. good call brother



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 08:53 PM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


Well the 3 I named are standouts in their sector, and I think as the markets move higher, so do they of course, but exponentially against their respective competitors..

I think equities should trade in triple digits that are the pinnacle of their "niche"

AAPL, GS, GOOG all fit into these "stereotypes" I believe



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 09:38 PM
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reply to post by RolandBrichter
 


Roland, time to test this theory

While I actually agree with everything this chart says (plus more, that I have outlined in previous posts with my resistance levels..) I can't but help seem to feel that this rally hasn't even begun yet...

We need some REALLY GOOD NEWS THOUGH.. I think RR has outlined the news for the coming week in a previous post at the top of this page.. that could totally correlate with a breakout..

Time will tell..



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 10:19 PM
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That ramp in the last minutes of trading was all from big financials. That was an offer-side collapse and it was triggered in the pit.

both GS and JPM were buying hand over fist into the close. JPM bought 1000 spoos (5000 /es minis) in the last _TWO_ minutes.

KD's guess is that one of their hedgie clients (Perquot?) got liquidated at the bell - and was short. ALL of the short stops were cleared up to 928.

there is very little resting inventory short below 928 - no price support.

it was all just computers, hegies and big players like gs/jpm trading against each other

also, somebody was buying treasuries and driving down the rates all day. (wonder who?? Oh Bennie...)

a HUGE amount of money drawn from FX accounts today to prop up T's and MBS. I don't know for sure who was doing it, but I would suspect the usual suspects, GS, MS, JPM.

As a TF poster explains...


When the bond market closed, there was this huge coiled spring effect in the FX market. Everything had moved so much that it was only natural to pull back some, that pullback was in the direction it needed to go for equities to go up.

I can't explain the exact relationships except on the most simplistic level: When people buy USD, it ends up in equities (usually, today it was T's and MBS) when people sell USD, the market drops because it's coming out of equities....

hattip Asimov

Here's a good recap on the events

remember, next week we have $88B in short term T's as well as 10 and 30 years, though I don't know the $ value of those.

Sidenote: GBM be cautious on NASDAQ longs, Obama's new "Cyber Czar" may have a wrench to through into tech's gears



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 10:24 PM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


wow 5000 ES MINI's???

Now thats capital!

But futures continued to rise into the close...

Was this just a continuation you think?

EDIT: how do you know this... do you have pit audio?

2x EDIT: read your link..

That website seems pretty bias tho IMO

Also, ride her till she bucks you!! (regarding $comp)

[edit on 29-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 29-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 10:25 PM
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ding ding ding page 333



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 10:54 PM
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Originally posted by redhatty
That ramp in the last minutes of trading was all from big financials. That was an offer-side collapse and it was triggered in the pit.



Yeah when things like that happen, either to the upside or downside, it is very peculiar. On another note, I have a friend who works at a clearinghouse for futures and he said that it is slowly becoming more electronic. That scares me a little.



posted on May, 29 2009 @ 10:57 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan

While I actually agree with everything this chart says (plus more, that I have outlined in previous posts with my resistance levels..) I can't but help seem to feel that this rally hasn't even begun yet...

We need some REALLY GOOD NEWS THOUGH.. I think RR has outlined the news for the coming week in a previous post at the top of this page.. that could totally correlate with a breakout..

Time will tell..


I am someone who is not bearish or bullish. I really have no idea how things will go, depends on the news. I just don't feel comfortable with this rally because I think it is highly manufactured. But I am with you, I say we see a big continuation of a rally before another crash. What will really do this is if banks report better earnings once again.

EDIT: I do think we see another big crash though.

[edit on 29-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]



posted on May, 30 2009 @ 01:22 AM
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What Was THAT? (Friday Market Close)

Follow link for full article & charts


There were 146,083 contracts traded in that one-minute period between 14:59 and 15:00 (Central); the next minute, when the real dislocation hit, traded 91,774 - after the cash market bell had rung.

The closing bell is usually busy. But this sort of volume is absolutely unheard of. To put it in perspective yesterday the same time recorded 26,540 contracts, and 36,642 the minute after.

Volume was light all day, as is somewhat common in the summer on a Friday. The close started its usual increase, and was up to 23,000 contracts at 14:57 with two minutes remaining.

Then all hell broke loose.

"Paper", or institutional representation, was stalking the close; the pit audio feed so stated. Directly in front of the bell 1,000 contracts were bought - as near as I could tell at the market.

Those are "Big" contracts, each being 5 of the /ES minis; this was, in effect, a 5,000 contract /ES market order.

The reaction was instantaneous. The offer side of the market collapsed and the /ES rocketed higher. In the pit, trades went off as high as 925, but on the E-Mini trades were recorded as high as 927.75. As quickly as it got there, it collapsed back to 922 - a nearly six-handle (3/4 of one percent) straight-up and down spike.

Now here's the problem:

For me to believe this was "organic", that is, this was an un-forced order, I have to believe that someone wanted to go home net long the equivalent of 5,000 /ES contracts into the weekend at a severely disadvantaged price. The market had been calm all day; if you wanted to buy 1,000 spoos (equivalent to 5,000 E-Minis) there was plenty of opportunity to do so all day long. This sort of market order was guaranteed to dislocate the market - so the buyer had to simply not give a damn what sort of price they got.

How bad of a fill was this? To put this in perspective each /ES point is worth $50 per contract.

Each single point that was disadvantaged to the buyer by this execution cost him a cool quarter-million bucks, and on average, the "disadvantage" was likely around five full handles, meaning that the buyer of these contracts, if this was an "organic" order, willingly ate $1.25 million dollars.

I don't believe for one second that is what happened.

There are only two possibilities that I can come up with, and both demand answers:

1. "Someone" was forcibly liquidated out of a short position - a fairly big one. 1,000 S&P "big" contracts has a maintenance margin requirement of $22,500,000 - that's not a small position, and each point, as noted, has a $250,000 move associated with it. Who was it and why?
2. "Someone" who didn't give a damn if they lost a sizable amount of money intentionally wanted to shove the cash market up through the 200DMA, a critical technical level. They were 1 minute late; they succeeded in doing so in the futures, but not the cash!

reprinted with permission from Karl Denninger



posted on May, 30 2009 @ 01:44 AM
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reply to post by RetinoidReceptor
 


I don't know man. Another big crash could totally ruin the USA, and I don't know if they are going to let that happen. Not to mention global markets would collapse as well, leaving us behind Brazil and India in the long run, which I find hard to fathom no matter how pessimistic people are.

I wasn't referring btw that you were signaling a strategy, just mentioned that you posted the news.

I mean, do we keep rocketing up and up till new highs... prob. not.. but I wouldn't be shorting lets say at DOW 9500 if we see that soon

My resistance #2 is at around 11000 on the dow right now, and realistically if it breaks #1 lets say and climbs, it would take an awful long time to get there most likely (ill call 1 year) and by that time the resistance would drop to about I don't know 9-10,000 (declining slope)

Honestly, if we break #1 and use that as support, I seriously wouldnt be surprised to see Dow 10,000 at some point this year.. I just cant go against the charts, no matter what.

The economics behind it don't worry me, and I have never been concerned about them, personally I think its a waste of time, and I have never really taken the time to truly understand the intricate workings. Because honestly, THAT IS NEVER GOING TO MAKE YOU $$$$ unless you have PhD or something etc... and Im talking about REAL $$$ btw, not some $150,000 year BS job where you are ultimately someones B

I think too many people are over thinking the market... but its real easy and ill give everyone the hint..

THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND

That is all, that statement will make you rich (of course if you have the capital backing
)

Not only that, but the more i get into my trading algorithms, I am realizing that SIMPLE IS BETTER, and its better to have the mind of someone totally UNBIAS - which is a tough pill to swallow-

When I am SIM'ing my futures trading I am finding its tough not to have an "EGO" and your ego will kill you, because you cant beat the market. So that why I have just stuck to my most simplest program, and so far that has been reaping the highest yields, and I'm not joking when I say I could trade 5 contracts at a time and make an average of 30-50 dow points a day which translates into $1,250 and with these #'s I am truly being "pessimistic" with my gains/losses to simulate all factors etc..

See, you all know me well enough now to know

1. I know basically nothing about the economy like you all

2. I dont really know the "key terms" or what happens when something happens etc..

3. Words like "bond dislocation" go right over my head (and I got some puffy curly hair right now lol)

4.. I honestly couldnt care less, because I think its actually way more profitable to see this market with the "dumbest" view possible or "through a childs eyes".. I dont know how to write this I guess..

5. If you were following what I have been saying this past 3-4 months or however longs its been, you would have a small fortune

I'm not boasting or anything, because #1 there is nothing to boast about, as I'm sure some have WAY bigger gains than I would, even though my short call on SKF at 135 (which got deleted by a MOD lol) I think was brilliant but anyone with knowledge of how markets trade could do the same thing, if they put an assload of time into it, because trust me I have, I have no life, I put in a legit 10 hours a day into my programs and index's .. yeah, I know, Im a hermit right now that only gets out of the house to play golf...


IMO people's ego's get in the way of their trades perhaps 50-100% of the time, and I am looking to have 0%, and thats why in the long run, just play the trends, you know?

So, that was a super long post, but I think I explained myself well, or at least my position/outlook in short term at least with pertinent (IMO) information... but you all know me, ill never go against the charts, i just don't think its very smart

At the same time, as I have spoken to people in private convo's, I love this thread, bc you can totally gauge retail sentiment, and its always smart to short retail. I wouldn't do that anyways bc I would just use my program, but in general I think that is a profitable side to be on in the long run, again IMO

[edit on 30-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on May, 30 2009 @ 01:55 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


Did you see the YM spike?

You should ALL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS

I have highlighted it very well..

and yes that is a 130 POINT MOVE IN 5 MINUTES with a huge spike up/down at the end...






BIG MONEY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



posted on May, 30 2009 @ 02:05 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


Yes, very unnatural and volatile movements into the close today.

Not the signs of a healthy market.

I know you are not actually having any money on the line GBM & I don't blame you for just running with your program, but be prepared to revise your whole strategy at any time these days because what we are seeing happen, all too often, is pure manipulation.

And if you aren't on the blackberry list of insiders, you could easily get your face ripped off in this.



posted on May, 30 2009 @ 02:58 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


See, but here's where I think I am somewhat a "lock" - I know, last words right? lol

My program buys and shorts, without getting into too much detail, the only way I can get totally F'd and I MEAN WIPED OUT is to have major whipsaw's at a common moving average, it usually doesn't happen this way though, especially with the indicators I am using..and the only time I really get screwed is in afterhours trading from 1-6am.. those are the worst hours IMO

So BIG VOLATILITY makes me a boatload, but big volatility trading in a linear straight line would kill me, and yes THAT IS A VERY BIG RISK... but I have backtested and backtested and backtested and I believe I have the best "average" of up and down...

I mean on a day like today I would have ran off with +9 pts on the short side and +127 on the other.. which is VERY profitable.. but today was an anomaly so..



posted on May, 30 2009 @ 03:04 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


ah but that is where so much theoretical comes into play.

Could you have borrowed the shares for the shorts?

Could you have bought in at the optimum price for maximum gains?

Plus, you focus on the DOW & NASDAQ - I focus on the S&P500

Dow is only 30 different stocks - not a really good indicator of the overall market

S&P is 500 different stocks, much better indicator of the markets

NASDAQ is tech. Of course I can see how you could be drawn back to it for revenge on BUYX


Your program runs futures? or just ind. stocks?

If ind. stocks, how many monitors do you have on your computer system? I have 2 and I still run out of space for what I track



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