The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan



PPT + mystery GS move + what's left of the dumb money =

Watch what happens later this week with the US Treasuries sale..DOH!!!

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
So are you shorting/buying puts? I mean what good is a predicition if you aren't acting on it?

Well, if you really must know ...I'm all in metals.....my prediction stands

[edit on 26-5-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Dont let them surprise you to the upside..

That would send this market into another buying frenzy and would push us ABOVE MAJOR RESISTANCE LEVELS..

But that is thinking very positive of course.. but you know there is 2 sides to every coin..

IMO it is very dumb to be short this market

The problem with consumer confidence is that it can be correlated with the stock market and the news. If the stock market is rising through new barriers like there is no tomorrow and the news is talking about a recovery, consumers can start believing it.

I noticed something very stupid in the CNBC article.

www.cnbc.com...

U.S. consumer confidence soared in May to its highest level in eight months as severe strains in the labor market showed some signs of easing, though Americans' moods remained depressed by historical standards.

The labor market showed some signs of easing

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


From my post on another thread

Well, it's less bad and less bad can only mean green chutes...right? I mean look at all the positive economic news....like....uhhh..... well it FEELS, less bad doesn't it? I mean Kudlow and Cramer told us that things are getting better....so things must be getting better....right?.....I feel great....I'm gonna go out and buy that new house now......ooops....I'm gonna buy that new house as soon as I sell mine.....uhhhh...why is my house worth less than 30% than what I owe on it....I still feel great about this economy...wow, this grape coolaid tastes phenominal,can I have some more????

BTW, I'm not shorting anything..IMHO, you can't play this market casino with ANY confidence...loading up on silver

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


what you didnt see the labor market easing? only over half a million lost theor jobs last month, ask them they will agree... it aint that bad.

what? government the largest hiring force? well, someone had to ease the job losses..

and the markets? 5 depressing news articles i read this morning, and one about consumer being more confident...

how the [#% can you be confident when for instance i read an article on bloomberg that 8% unemployment is our new "normal"... ???? oh unemployment isn't high, this is our new low...

oh lets go to walmart i feels so better now...

read between the lines of the story:

America, the propaganda is working. We are a nation of dumbasses, gov says its a good time to spend all you got and you waste no time blowing your savings.

am I the only one who finds this country disgusting?

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

Am I the only one who finds this country disgusting?

I see more and more people waking up to the scam.....

BTW...this consumer confidence # means NOTHING

[edit on 26-5-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by Rockpuck


Agree with the "disgust": I have seen MORE overt squandering lately instead of less,the "nouveau attitude" is "Well,it's all going to chit anyways so we're gonna' live it up now..."Lots of frivolous (IMO) buying and overbuying among those I know.How many flippin' TV's do you really need???
I've heard some say they "expect" a bail-out of sorts in regards to their maxed-out credit cards so they're now spending weekly income.

My sis is an HR director for a noted/large company on 2 coasts: she was told this am to "cut 70-75 full-time jobs" this week. With benefits lost as well...she was in tears and hates being in her position but she has a "good job" and needs to keep it as well.

I am personally sort of galvanized in that I am refusing to be duped any longer but at the same time,realize there is money to be made in investments...trying to dollar-cost average in slowly but the "what if's" and worst-case scenarios are preventing me from doing much...when did I get to be such a chicken-chit? LOL!

My gut tells me we're nearing the end of a lot of things...who's going to BUY all the vacant properties??? It's hard to get a loan from the smaller local banks around here now and if you dare act as if you can afford to buy anything outright,they are taxing people to death!!!

The circle is closing in on itself...it's not "consumer confidence"it's consumer ARROGANCE because so many truly think (and are probably correct) that "something will happen" and it will allllllll be smoothed over for them because "it's too big to fail" and "they won't let us lose our house" and "the credit card company will have to give us a break..."
They see no reason to alter their habits and the BAD thing is: there hasn't been "enough" to affect most of them first hand so they continue living the "dream..."

[edit on 26-5-2009 by irishchic]

www.bloomberg.com...

Consumer confidence was at a near record low in March 2009. Do you think there is any coincidence to when the stock market fell to new lows and the news was talking about a new depression? This number doesn't foretell anything as is obvious in above article.



[edit on 26-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RolandBrichter

Homes: Almost 20% cheaper

S&P/Case-Shiller index reports huge decline of 19.1% for the first quarter.

From CNN, right above the article "Consumer confidence Brings Rally"

Some idiots who have never (actually) traded may think this is rational.. consumers are deciding they are safer to spend money and thus the economy rises. But this is NOT a rational market, and this rally is the most preposterous I have seen in weeks.. This kind of activity in the markets is, I would hope, keeping your average day trader incredibly nervous or out of the markets all together. When I started trading I would research the companies I bought, sometimes even a few days in advance and just waiting for my In. Now, I notice, you cannot determine the way a stock will move in this market based on their corporate profit, their business plan through the next quarter, their forecasts, or even news..

IF I where "playing" in the market today (playing because it's a slot machine anymore) I would have sold my positions.. based on the news.. based on corporate profits in comparison to stock prices.. based on Federal regulator's forecasts..

But we have a rally. Completely irrational.. and I almost consider it far more dangerous to the economy than a collapse of the markets.. This inspires in the ignorant confidence.. those not yet effected by the crisis will continue to spend on non-essentials.. keeping their savings levels at the same record low levels as before the crash.. because they feel safer seeing those bars and graphs and green numbers always going up .. they don't "play" the markets, or understand the fundamentals.. whatever CNN or FOX tells them, they believe.

reply to post by irishchic


Don't take this as investment advice, please.. for the most part simply because it varies so drastically in each individual market.

But you mention the vacant real estate, I believe there is a TON of money to be made int he distressed real estate markets, particularly 4unit plus residential properties. In many markets the investors sold off fast, or over leveraged and the bank took their properties.. for the most part this is due to financing under 20%, or being taken in by Balloon mortgages.. This leaves the Multi Family market under-valued.. as more and more are unemployed or have their home taken, they move into apartments.. The rent pays the mortgage (equity) and a small profit on top. The Distressed part of what I am talking about is key to profits.. the lower the value on the property the more overage you have on rent payments, to either pay down on the mortgage quicker, or if you have several properties to combine the overage and expand the inventory.

The only difficulty I see arising in my scheming is the ability to get the credit.. commercial loans are much harder to attain than residential. Then again, so long as there is under 4 units, the loan is technically a residential mortgage, and wouldn't be a bad idea to start out anyways.

I'm talking more to myself now lol. There are plenty of ways to make money in this economy, the stock market is far to risky for my liking though..

reply to post by Rockpuck



I agree with your sentiments.....when things got out of hand in 98-01 (tech bubble) nothing made any sense to me...and i got my arse handed to me on a cardboard platter....then we had this miracle rally to 2007...there was a lot of easy money to be made, but things REALLYstarted to feel surreal for me, so I dumped everything...Now, at least I have an idea why things are like this in the market, and like you I am disgusted....the whole show is based on....NOTHING....For the last 2 years, my entire position has been metals....this could bite me too, but precious metals have NEVER been worth $0....

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I would argue that it means something, in fact a lot of things..

Why dont you think CC is important?

reply to post by Rockpuck


While this is happening dont you see rates going to low's where it is much more economical to buy rather than rent?

This, of course, if you have the credit.

Rates are pretty outstanding.

I dont discount your theory though, you just have to have the credit worthiness to back it up. The time is very good for someone to get "into the business" if this is a starting point etc..

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Those "good rates" are for the top credit bracket.. banks are now basing mortgages based on credit worthiness... Someone just starting out will probably get a loan in the mid 5-6% still.

Is it a good time to buy? It's better than last year, and I have a feeling next year will be better than this year..

But, of course, if you moving into a new home and you plan on staying there, the actual housing market should mean nothing to you.. only if you plan on moving within the next 5 years or so, and is again based on your down payment and interest rate.

But for a first time buyer with 0-3% down, it's a horrible time to buy.. the last thing you want, good interest rate or not, is to be underwater in 3 months. I would wait for stability.

reply to post by Rockpuck


You do get a pretty sweet tax break though for 1st time HB

I dont even know how much this plays into a family that NEEDS a home (new family members etc.)

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by RolandBrichter

 

Why dont you think CC is important?

Because it's an arbitrary assumption based on.....nothing....Consumer confidence can go through the roof, but if consumer SPENDING doesn't follow...what correlation is there? There used to be a correlation, based on solid fact....in this bizzaro market...nothing seems to be adding up, but that's what one would expect if the markets were being actively manipulated...and I believe they are...

That being said...I do believe we will recover, but all the BS has to be blown out of the system first...the longer TPTB tries to hold of the inevitable, the worse the cleanout will be

Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
www.bloomberg.com...

Consumer confidence was at a near record low in March 2009. Do you think there is any coincidence to when the stock market fell to new lows and the news was talking about a new depression? This number doesn't foretell anything as is obvious in above article.

[edit on 26-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

That was then, this is now:

Stocks Bounce Back as Confidence Soars

Stocks recovered from a lower start Tuesday as consumer confidence hit its highest level in eight months and a broker upgrade on Apple buoyed the Nasdaq.

WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSH.


Did you see it? What was that?

Hmm. It couldn't be the housing prices. They don't fly that high.

Getting the market off to a jittery start after the three-day weekend, the decline in housing prices showed no signs of letting up and there were reports of another missile launch by North Korea.

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I like your sentiment, except there is always BS in the system, just how much you are willing to believe in is up to you of course

Lowest Libor Hides ‘Exceptionally Wide’ Bank Spreads (Update2)
www.bloomberg.com...

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- The drop in the London interbank offered rate, the benchmark for $360 trillion of financial products, to a record low masks a growing gap between the rates that the biggest banks charge each other for credit.

The difference between the highest and lowest interest rates banks say they pay for three-month dollar-denominated loans is near the widest this year, according to data compiled by the British Bankers’ Association. The spread signals that lenders still lack confidence in each other, even though measures ranging from the so-called Libor-OIS spread to corporate bond sales show credit markets have recovered from the freeze caused by the Sept. 15 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

“It’s premature to judge that the credit meltdown is fully over,” said Kazuto Uchida, chief economist in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan’s largest bank. “Banks remain wary of extending credit to each other due to strenuous concerns about counterparty risk.”

More at Link...