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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:34 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


Stress tests where planned with stats they didn't expect to see until 2010.. however most of the stats used in the stress tests have already passed, or are now predicted to occur within the second quarter..

One example, they used Credit Card defaults at 20% -- could the bank withstand.. well Credit Card defaults passed 20% this month, and the largest retail creditor actually went out of business..

For all the effort they put into "transparency" the tests are not transparent at all.. when testing a banks solvency it's quite easy: Do they exceed their leveraging ratio? If their deposits are not enough to cover obligations then they are technically insolvent..... and we know they are all insolvent, otherwise they wouldn't have needed those capital injections? So the stress tests basically try to determine how much MORE capital will be needed if the predicted rate of defaults continued. Most still failed.




posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:36 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
The guy in your article says he thinks the stress tests were too easy?

Do you agree?


YES


They planned for much worse scenarios than present correct?

That's what the .gov CLAIMS


Also, if you link to something, with a opinion of the market, and what he/she would hold, is that not also advice? As in the bottom of that page?

Im interested to know... but mostly what you think of the stress tests personally


The only advise I gave is for people to read the article. Martin Weiss & Weiss Research are Licensed Market Analysts, see here

They are legally allowed to give TA both general and specific. I am not, therefore all I CAN do is to link to them and recommend the article.

As to the stress test, I think that was the biggest sham of the decade, and maybe even the century. The banks are INSOLVENT, yet the numbers are deliberately being manipulated (fudged) to make them "appear" healthy, while they continue to fleece the public through .gov capital injections and dilution of stock values.



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:38 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Transparency, I dont think is the issue

I dont think any of this is an issue to be honest

I agree somewhat with you, but i will also add

This was mostly a show to detract from the circus, banks are going to survive no matter what, its already been stated, and for anyone to dispute that is ridiculous, because we can print as much money as we want to make it so. Right or not, thats not my call, but I am just stating the facts.

In your opinion, is $20/share under or overvalued for a bank like wells fargo?

I think the market is extremely undervalued based on what the fed/govt. has been telling us



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:40 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


I hear ya

People in the county where I live have the same worries... we are nice and most other's from around California are in shock when they come here. You try and be rude to a lady here and you will have at least three men escort you all the way to your car

I really do understand how people feel about the way the budgets have been handled here over the years though. Way to much money has been allocated and spent on really stupid "crap" basically.
I am just glad I live in the place I do we have a real community spirit here and people still help one another like they used to. You might actually like it rock it isn't like the "real" California, we must have succeeded
They forgot to tell us to spend like mad and be rude to everyone



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:41 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


It might be a sham to a retail player looking from the outside in, but I still cant get over that .gov/fed says they will still be ok, and I cant go against that

Plus, they are borrowing at 0%.. I mean it wont take too long to get it all back, wouldnt you agree?

EDIT: also, as much as i dont agree most times, i think rockpuck made a pretty good explanation of what is going on a few pages back if anyone is interested

[edit on 14-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:49 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 




Transparency, I dont think is the issue


ZOMG DUDE ... seriously.. that's the crux of the problem!!!!!!!

Is the economy better or worse??? Are the banks getting better or worse??? HOW THE HELL DO WE KNOW WHAT THE GOVERNMENT KEEPS HIDING, MANIPULATING, DISTORTING, LYING, CHEATING, COVERING UP AND MAKING IT SO DAMN IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A STRAIGHT FORWARD ANALYSIS?????

Are the banks insolvent, can they lend, can they survive the next 6 months.. these tests are pointless unless we can see: The tested scenarios. The exact results. The EXACT market value of all assets the banks have, total deposits, total obligations, total expected exposed obligations etc..

But what do we get form uncle sam? "Ah, the banks are fine.. just need a few billion, no big deal they can raise it on their own."



In your opinion, is $20/share under or overvalued for a bank like wells fargo?


Does Wells Fargo produce a profit? Can they post a Dividend? If they cannot post a Dividend, why the hell do I want a stock that doesn't pay out? NO.. Wells Fargo isn't worth the paper it's printed on, it's a defunct, insolvent bank.

This is what myself and others have told you about the S&P, stock prices are rising but the companies are posting losses, not posting dividends and yet the value to profit ratio is so distorted it's never been seen at these levels in the S&P's entire history.

"Over Valued" would be an under statement.

And before you try and spin this as me giving advice, I know you will, these are my opinions based on the fact that in "normal" economics, if a company doesn't earn money for quarters on end, it's not worth anything and should be devalued.

Think of it like Enron crashing.. but the Government throwing billions of dollars at it and telling everyone to invest in Enron stocks.

WTF is the difference with these banks, gm, etc?



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:51 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


No, i didnt ask you that to back you into a corner, im not like that my friend

I wanted your opinion

And I dont agree that someone like wells should be valued at "present", but priced for the future

EDIT: and im pretty sure WFC posts a dividend

[edit on 14-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 10:52 AM
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reply to post by stander
 


Nah, I am no risk taker when you get to live four decades and see what has become in this nation, the government, the corporate raise to corruption you think two times before taking risks.

And as for the bikini, well at least you are nice enough and no asking for naked pictures, like somebody else ask me on another thread (as a joke)




posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:05 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Well if you look at all the rats working in Washington and how they are now embedded in government from the Federal Reserve Bernanke to the treasury Geithner and the Obama financial team you pretty much knows that is big names like Goldman Sachs behind the policies that are now been dictated in government.

It make look like "government is taking over companies and financial" but don't get fooled is big financial the ones behind the government.



[edit on 14-5-2009 by marg6043]



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:05 AM
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reply to post by Tentickles
 


Occurs is going to burst, we knew that from the begining didn'we, right now our government knows no other way to keep the economy working but with bail outs they will become part of everyday business as long as is money to print.



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:06 AM
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In addendum to my previous post


YM 0906 Real Time


Looks like the base is holding up..

with the 20 EMA being only 8 pts below the low here..

markets looking healthy



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:07 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
It might be a sham to a retail player looking from the outside in, but I still cant get over that .gov/fed says they will still be ok, and I cant go against that

Plus, they are borrowing at 0%.. I mean it wont take too long to get it all back, wouldnt you agree?

EDIT: also, as much as i dont agree most times, i think rockpuck made a pretty good explanation of what is going on a few pages back if anyone is interested

[edit on 14-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]


You actually TRUST the .gov and the FED? Well, that explains a lot doesn't it.

Youth is the time for being naive, enjoy it. Maybe you need to learn a little about the history of fraud, corruption and cover-ups perpetrated by the US .gov, here's a good start. There are MILLIONS of other sites with historical records.

as to "borrowing" at 0% - do you REALLY think that any of the $$ is ever going to really be paid back? I don't. We have de-facto nationalization of the banks, but we just don't find it PC to call it what it is, Nationalization of the banks.

Now that the .gov literally owns the banks, the .gov will make all the rules for the banks & help them further cover-up the fraud and abuses still being perpetrated.



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:08 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


you're right, Wells Fargo is the last remaining back as a top dividend payer. Most banks have ceased or cut but 80% their dividends.

However all current articles suggest a dramatic cut in dividends is coming.

Regardless given their exposure to the market there's not a shot in hell they are worth $20 a share. They may not be as bad off as Citi but they won't be profitable for a while.



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:09 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 




Youth is the time for being naive, enjoy it.


HEY.. excuse me good sir, but was that a shot at the young'uns on the board? I take personal offense seeing as I am younger than GMB!



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:12 AM
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In the markets news, and this is very important.


Unemployment Worse Than Expected; PPI Up 0.3%,

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, government data showed Thursday, pushed up by auto plant shutdowns related to Chrysler's bankruptcy.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits increased 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 637,000 in the week ended May 9, the Labor Department said, reversing an easing trend of the previous two weeks.


Whos to blame? well now is Chrysler,


Chrysler Seeking to Eliminate Nearly 800 Dealerships in US,

Chrysler wants to eliminate 789 of its U.S. 3,200 dealerships, saying in a bankruptcy court filing Thursday that the network is antiquated and has too many stores competing with each other.


And this doesn't even take into consideration that we may have over 200 thousand jobs loses if GM move out of the naton after june.

www.cnbc.com...

www.cnbc.com...



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:12 AM
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GMB:



Plus, they are borrowing at 0%.. I mean it wont take too long to get it all back, wouldnt you agree?


If you are referring to the TARP funds most where Senior Preferred and have an interest rate of 10% annual. Except Citibank ... they don't have to pay their interest to the Gov. Yet. I said back in the begining, if the banks survive.. the Government will actually make a rather hefty profit. Assuming the economy is fixed, banks make profits and our dividends are paid. AIG has already collapsed and we won't be getting those funds back.. Citi just stopped paying two months ago... so far bad investment.



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:14 AM
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reply to post by marg6043
 


Most of the dealership jobs are commission only, and won't be counted in Unemployment.



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:16 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Actually you have dreamers, doers and losers, it doesn't matter how age they are, gender or else, obviously some shows more maturity than other when it comes to how they see what is happening around them.

While I see the spunk and naiveté of BGM and find it refreshing, I see you around the board as more down to earth and less of a dreamer.



[edit on 14-5-2009 by marg6043]



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:18 AM
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Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by redhatty
 




Youth is the time for being naive, enjoy it.


HEY.. excuse me good sir, but was that a shot at the young'uns on the board? I take personal offense seeing as I am younger than GMB!




I did NOT say that all youth is naive, I said it was the time for being naive


Don't let that shoe pinch your toes, it doesn't fit you

On to more news, Fed T Buyback was all on the short end T's today with a bid to cover ratio of 9:1

The purchase or sale of Treasury securities on an outright basis adds or drains reserves available in the banking system. Such transactions are arranged on a routine basis to offset other changes in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in conjunction with efforts to maintain conditions in the market for reserves consistent with the federal funds target rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

----- OPERATION 1 - RESULTS -----
Operation Date: 05/14/2009
Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase
Release Time: 10:15 AM
Close Time: 11:00 AM
Settlement Date: 05/15/2009
Maturity/Call Date Range: 05/15/2010 - 02/28/2011

Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $2,975
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $27,086


------ INCLUSIONS: ------

CUSIP ID ----- SECURITY ---- PAR AMT ACCEPTED ($)
912828DU1 - T 03.875 05/15/10 - 0
912828GR5 - T 04.500 05/15/10 - 0
912828JA9 - T 02.625 05/31/10 - 0
912828DX5 - T 03.625 06/15/10 - 0
912828JC5 - T 02.875 06/30/10 - 0
912828DZ0 - T 03.875 07/15/10 - 0
912828JF8 - T 02.750 07/31/10 - 0
912828ED8 - T 04.125 08/15/10 - 0
9128276J6 - T 05.750 08/15/10 - 0
912828JJ0 -- T 02.375 08/31/10 - 0
912828EG1 - T 03.875 09/15/10 - 0
912828JL5 - T 02.000 09/30/10 - 0
912828EJ5 - T 04.250 10/15/10 - 0
912828JP6 - T 01.500 10/31/10 --- 50,000,000
912828EM8 - T 04.500 11/15/10 - 0
912828JS0 - T 01.250 11/30/10 -- 375,000,000
912828EQ9 - T 04.375 12/15/10 -- 350,000,000
912828JV3 - T 00.875 12/31/10 - 1,325,000,000
912828ES5 - T 04.250 01/15/11 - 0
912828JY7 - T 00.875 01/31/11 -- 534,000,000
9128276T4 - T 05.000 02/15/11 - 0
912828KE9 - T 00.875 02/28/11 -- 341,000,000
912828EX4 - T 04.500 02/28/11 - 0

source

It's one thing when they buy back the 30 yrs, but when they buy back the ones maturing NEXT YEAR, ummm, that signals a problem in my opinion



posted on May, 14 2009 @ 11:18 AM
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reply to post by Rockpuck
 


Well thanks I didn't know that, does this include the parts, repair and dealership business also? or just the assemble line workers

Darn I can not even think about how many people will be losing jobs down the pipe line.



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