It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

page: 300
189
<< 297  298  299    301  302  303 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:09 PM
link   
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


I don't listen to republican radio ( you want my ears to bleed???) and I'm sitting on my money (literally and figuratively)

and I'll give you your point that you'll make out if you bought your 200k house this year...BUT only if you bought it cash and have no debt or mortgage. However the majority doesn't live like that and cannot afford to buy things and remain debt free

if you have mortgage or debt, i'm sure the interest rates would reflect hyperinflation and you'd still end up paying more than you should.

Sure the collapse could be horrendous and your mortgage company goes up in flames and there is no long any law, etc...then certainly your argument would be right that it would be better to be in debt.

HOWEVER, like I said before, hyperinflation could be temporary, it could just be the trigger to institute the change needed to spark a recovery, and everything doesn't all go hell in the handbasket... and then you're still liable for your 200k house plus your 5mil bicycle..




posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:10 PM
link   
reply to post by worldwatcher
 




maybe hyperinflation is all hype for the moment


There is actually quite a bit missing to form the grounds for hyperinflation. And it's also very frightening when you see the line we are trying to walk that separates easing inflation, and hyperinflation..

The Central Bank has been printing - more - then usual, to the tune of Trillions. Mean while the Treasury is spending obscene amounts, throwing the funds mostly at banks.

First off, the Central Bank, the number we so often see "14 trillion" or high numbers like that, are often guarantees. For instance, we guarantee 360 billion in a Back Stop Loan to Citi Mortgage. This is money promised, but not created.. it doesn't exist, but if need be, the assurance that it's there is sufficient. Still though the amount pumped into the economy is astonishing.. but it cannot in it's self create hyper inflation. To get to that point, we need the money injected into the economy.. the money for the most part is sitting at the banks. When CDS defaulted, or where paid out the liabilities the CDS covered where exposed.. without a cash base, the bank couldn't lend.. most of the money is sitting and acting like deposits to cover the liabilities or "bad assets" that CDS contracts once voided out.

With out expanding capital, we are seeing the monetary base of the actual economy shrinking, or Deflation.

In order for the Hyper Inflation to occur, the Central Bank or Treasury would have to inject trillions into plans like Bush's Rebate plan.. send every American a check. Or make cash and capital exceedingly easy.. or print more money into circulation (which the amount actually printed into circulation has not changed).. We could see, like under Bush, inflation accelerate from the devaluing of our dollar... which imo, the Central Bank and the Treasury is actually trying to do.. this makes the price of goods more expensive.

The easiest way to determine if Hyperinflation is upon us, is to watch Wage Growth .. our wages are not growing.. and with unemployment, it's not likely to increase anytime soon. Wage Growth usually occurs in times when skilled workers are more scarce, like in the 90's. Without wage growth, or money injected into the economy through rebates, or money increased into circulation .. there cannot be Hyper Inflation .. only Inflation, through devaluing the dollar.

Is it "Good" to have higher debt in times of inflation? No, Inflation indicates a decrease in value of the Currency through increased supply.. this would essentially be terrible to have debt obligations AND have the cost of every day life increase dramatically.. as most Americans have experienced lately.

The level of hyper inflation that Green is talking about is not likely to ever occur, if it did it would indicate a complete economic collapse. But the type of inflation that many of us DO think is possible (within the next 4 years as the economy rebounds and the capital injected into the economy is expanded and not destroyed by the central bank) would take debts at an average of 10% and make them 20% interest, with 10% hikes in inflation.

Basically, debts rise in value as fast as the money supply.. unless it's a fixed rate mortgage, or car loan, all Credit Cards are Variable Rate.

(House or Car in a period of inflation, assuming you bought it at low interest rates = good, Credit cards = worst mistake of your life)

Anyone who lived during Carters administration will see that I am right, Green is wrong.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:22 PM
link   
reply to post by Rockpuck
 


We are heading the path to inflation that is no doubt about it, just look how government is now buying its own debt and the deficit is becoming unsustainable.

Just after the two back to back bailout next month will be another one, and so this will be the trend in order to support the nation's spending.

How far can this goes on I don't know but we will find out soon enough.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:23 PM
link   
reply to post by Rockpuck
 


thank you for your informative post, however I find myself thinking that I have recently read supporting AND contradicting information of whether it's going to be deflation or inflation or even hyperinflation that we face next. I will certainly pay attention to your "signs" however I'll have to do some research later to link with the articles I have read to show you just how confusing this is to everyone including the bankers, economists and so-called gurus. No one seems to know exactly what will happen and there is a huge mistrust in the data that the government provides to the public...so I guess that is why the case can be made for any of the scenarios happening.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:27 PM
link   
reply to post by marg6043
 


Until someone stops buying our debt.. until then we techincally payback the debt's capital plus interesting, limiting the level of inflation the monetary expansion would normally cause, by say, just printing the money.

(money paid back to the Fed is then pushed back into the Treasury, it is not capital that is destroyed or recycled, and is simply a way to devalue the currency)

Which is why I say, when we loose our buyers, and all we have left is our self, we could see higher inflation.

I don't see that happening anytime soon.. I just see the Dollar being devalued, the gap between rich and poor accelerate, and continued Deflation. Then again, which is worse.. hyper Inflation or hyper Deflation? I would say we are in a deflationary spiral at the moment. Unemployment, consumer spending, consumer price index all indicates that we are still deflating, even given the incredible amount of money pumped into the economy. Kind of says a lot about our situation.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:39 PM
link   
reply to post by worldwatcher
 


Well, no one does know what will happen. This is an economic storm never seen before.

What we DO know, is that we are in a deflationary spiral..

Credit is contracted, the value of the dollar is low (2007) unemployment rises for the first time.

Credit contracts again as credit defaults accelerate from job losses.

Due to unemployment companies lay off further employees in light of lower consuming.

Credit contracts due to higher levels of defaults from unemployed

Unemployment rises due to Consumer Prices falling, consume spending contracts due to Credit Contractions

Credit contracts due to higher levels of defaults from unemployed

Consumer price index falls, companies lay off workers, some companies go under due to Credit contractions

Credit seizes up from waves of defaults causing derivative losses

Unemployment increases due to Credit drying up, consumer price index plummets, Credit Defaults rise

This goes on, and on, and on... until something stops it. since the 1970's we have always relied on a "New Market" to drive a Bubble to bring about a way to end a recession. Usually, it didn't have to be a big Bubble, just enough to get people working. As years went by, Dot Com Bubbles, Energy Bubble, Housing Bubble.. all saved us from a recession, and each Bubble was bigger then the last.. until the whole scheme pops and we see our first real deflationary spiral since the Great Depression. I think the administration hoped for a "Green Energy Bubble" .. but with unemployment and dollar devaluations.. who can afford the new Green Energy? not many.

IMO, from what I have researched and understand about this particular economy.. we will continue with a Deflationary Spiral until a time comes where the Government manages to increase wage growth via a new technological Bubble.. or a major increase in economic output is needed due to, say, a very large war. I believe the extent of damage to the Economy is drastic and beyond repair of typical interest rate changes and capital expansions... a failing economy that could prolong a recession by 10 years or more, regardless of the drastic "bailouts" the government is promising. They only create Zombie Corporations that don't produce wealth.

Hyper Inflation is the furthest fear of mine.. a devaluing of our Currency (Consumer Price Inflation) is my greatest fear... seeing food costs rise, energy costs rise.. all while wages don't, bringing with it an acceleration in Deflation. Have you seen oil prices rising? Dollar dropping against world currencies? Food prices rising? These are all signs of Deflation as wages cease to expand. This is the way I see it, though like you say, many are town "Inflation or Deflation", these are my conclusions but it will take reading many peoples conclusions to decide which you believe your self to be true.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:54 PM
link   

Originally posted by redhatty

Originally posted by stander
And WHY would they POSSIBLY made the distinction between "last April" and "April 2008?"

Of course, it's strange to summarize the whole month in its first quarter, but "last April" is "last April," not "April a year ago," especially if the distinction was made just a few lines bellow.

Are you going to tell me what they actually meant by "last April?" It takes a bit of competency to present data with no doubt to the reader what time frame reference they apply to. Are you telling me that this is just a negligible mistake? Then I can tell you that the 50.9% decline in the sales taxes could be a another mistake.

You present data from rogue economists who equal "last April" to probably "April 2008" but never doubt that those 50.9% could be probably 35.7%.

Explain this to me: Why did the Controller Office use the term "last April" with the sales taxes data and "April 2008" with the corporate taxes if you think that you see clearly through anything?

Edit: I actually figured that out, sort of.

What actually matters is this info:


Compared to April 2008, General Fund revenue in April
2009 was down $6.3 billion (-39%). The total for the three
largest taxes was below 2008 levels by $6.3 billion


Here, the time comparison is made. This index is more representative than anything else. It doesn't compare itself with any budget projections -- it's the real deal. How to translate this figure into overall economic decline for the state . . . Maybe Rockpuck knows how.


And don't forget that in the right hand side of the report it also clearly states


This Summary Analysis covers
actual receipts and disbursements
for April 2009 and year to date for
the first 10 months of Fiscal Year
2008-09. Data are shown for total
cash receipts and disbursements,
the three largest categories of
revenues, and the two largest
categories of expenditures.
This report compares actual receipts
against historical figures from 2008

and the 17-month spending plan for
the current and following fiscal years
that was adopted in February.


So If I was reviewing this April against 2008, I would easily call it "last April"

Maybe you would call it something different

That's what it was. The Controller Office didn't follow up consistently on the definitions, which were put on the side of the page (Definitions go always first and are centered.) The consequence . . .


Sales taxes were $452 million lower (-50.9%) than last April, and personal income taxes were down $5.7 billion (-43.6%).

Fifty percent?! FIFTY?

market-ticker.org...

. . . bold and capitalized excitment on the part of those who missed the misplaced definitions and ran into "April 2008" and "last April" in the text. That's why the questionmark tails the word FIFTY -- "last April" capitalized the word and put the questionmark there.

[edit on 5/13/2009 by stander]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 06:59 PM
link   
Thanks for your opinion GBM! This thread has been getting more and more off the topic of up to the minute market information. The longer term bearish commentary is more useful for guessing where the market will be next year or later if it turns out to be correct. Options expiry is driving the market this week and as you say once the market goes low enough to make a call option worthless the selling pressure eases. The 20 day EMA still has a lot of the last rally push in it but the 50 might be a good spot for a bounce if the news turns.

[edit on 13-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:17 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by worldwatcher
 


Ok.. lets say this..

I buy a 200,000 house this year

In 5 years a schwinn bicycle costs 10,000,000 dollars

I say I'd make out quite well

And at anytime there is hyperinflation (that people are stating in this manner) there is regime change/collapse of that economic entity.

Facts are facts, and all I was saying is, put your money where your mouth is before spreading more misinformation/bull**** you heard on the local republican radio station


I am with Bicman on this one. Hyperinflation is nowhere on the horizon. In order to have hyperinflation there needs to be an excess of money. Right now there is nowhere near enough money for the public as a whole. Thats why people have stopped buying and employers have fired millions. We are so deep in debt on a consumer level that most people will be paying off debts for many years before they start spending on unneccesities again. Interest rates will fall further and the dollar will get weaker.

The thing is the American people as a whole could really use a good bout of hyperinflation. Since it will help the little guy in the end it has little chance of happening.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:19 PM
link   
Here is a good comparison between our current situation and how the same situation went down in Germany. History can be our friend if we don't forget it.



The intent to transfer wealth is the key to understanding all economic catastrophes. It is also the key to understanding why this particular crisis more closely mirrors that of the German hyperinflation 1919-23, rather than the early years of the Great Depression in 1930s America. To fixate on the Great Depression, as Ben Bernanke is doing, ignores the true problem, and sets us off into wrong directions. Let me point out some comparisons:
1) Post WW I Germany was the biggest debtor nation in the world, at that time. Debtor nations are dependent upon foreign cash flows. In contrast, in the 1930s, like Japan in 1990, the U.S. was the biggest creditor nation in the world. That is why Germany had hyperinflation when it printed money, while 1990s Japan and 1930s America had deflation as they did the same thing. Because we are the biggest debtor nation in the world, the current money printing will result in hyperinflation, NOT deflation.
9) The Reichsbank claimed that it could control the events it created, just as the Federal Reserve does now. Questionable statistics were regularly published, just as is now the case in the USA. German authorities believed, just as American authorities now believe, that the perception is more important than economic reality. Eventually, however, when the foreign cash flows dried up, reality did reassert itself, as it always does, and the German economy entered hyperinflation.
10) Finally, most tellingly, the German "professional" economists called the 1918 post war depression, prior to the hyperinflation, "the credit crisis", or "the credit crunch", and the prevailing complaint was that banks were hesitant to lend money. Unwittingly, American professional economists, including Mr. Bernanke, have dubbed the present crisis with the same names, and the complaint is exactly the same. Notoriously, the prescribed remedy is also exactly the same, even though, from all the speeches given by Federal Reserve officials, rather than overtly intending to copy the Reichsbank, they seem to be blissfully unaware of the entire German event. Frightening...

seekingalpha.com...

More at link. Rockpuck, while I find myself in agreement with much of what you're saying, I would make the point that gov't can effect the wage side of the equation quite easily these days. They have created enough programs over the last few decades to mainline printed money right into the system, ie SS, MCR, MCD, Welfare and through the make work programs now being implemented. When the 'stimulus' money is used to over pay everyone involved in these programs, that is wage increase. I was just reading that all these gov't jobs are averaging like 75k.

Furthermore, the Fed cannot allow the money it's already printed to stay parked forever, at some point it will stop paying interest on those monies and they will have to go somewhere.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:23 PM
link   


I am with Bicman on this one. Hyperinflation is nowhere on the horizon.


That makes three of us. Despite all the money being printed for bailouts banks are not lending to the public. Credit card companies are reducing peoples available credit or even canceling cards and going out of business like Advanta.

As for the government jobs, Roosevelt did the same thing after the 1929 Depression. Remember reading about the Civilian Conservation Corps? Even that did not produce inflation and only WW2 really got the US moving again.

[edit on 13-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:32 PM
link   
reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate
 

You seem to be missing the fact that we were the worlds largest Creditor then. We are now the worlds largest Debtor, it makes a difference.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:40 PM
link   
reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 


Oh yes, the gov can effect the money supply of the actual economy very easily.. they just have not done so. Or rather, not to the extent needed to halt deflation. Eventually the money will trickle into the economy in some way or another, through credit or otherwise and we will see steep inflation. Not hyper inflation, but strong inflation.

Of course, if everyone is employed by the gov, I could care less what happens. That's not a country I want to live in.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:41 PM
link   

Originally posted by Vitchilo
GM is at 1$ a share... GM is in big trouble... Those living in Michigan are probably very pissed at the government... thanks globalization! Yay!

Yep, my cousin has been working all his life in the auto industry and he just cannot believe that they will let GM go to hell... he just can't imagine how big a problem this will create in North America... especially the US.


Russians have a word for it and the word is perestroika, which is a mix of "rebuilding" and "restructuring." But that word gained a different connotation right after the Soviet Union had "perestroyed" itself to be no more. That's the fate every superpower has to meet.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 07:58 PM
link   
reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar
 


Investor's Dictionary

hyperinflation - wonderful indigo child riding a diamond-studded tricycle handing over fixed-rate mortgages.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 08:13 PM
link   


We are now the worlds largest Debtor, it makes a difference.


In todays world devaluing the US dollar would raise the cost of imports make US exports more attractive in price and devalue US debts to foreign countries.

That is a good intermediate goal but it probably isn't going to happen very fast.
The eurozone central bank has more leeway to lower interest rates and that tends to strengthen the dollar. China isn't real happy at the prospect of the US devaluing the huge debt they took on from the US. I'm not sure what they can do to prevent it, but they have been fooling around with the Yuan and buying gold.

It appears China has some leeway to lower interest rates and force the dollar higher as well.

www.tradingeconomics.com...

[edit on 13-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 08:27 PM
link   

Originally posted by GreenBicMan

I havent been proved wrong once yet

/end of post


You may not have been proven wrong here on this board (one of the reasons is because we do not discuss when to buy and sell, I use other boards for that), but EVERYONE is proven wrong sometime. I have been trading for a while and I have done very well and make good calls usually but I of course make bad calls. Everyone does. Even Buffet does and JP Morgan did! It happens to all of us. I WISH drawing a diagonal line down a 5 day graph of the markets could predict the future, but it doesn't. Especially in this sort of news driven market.

[edit on 13-5-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 08:40 PM
link   

Originally posted by fromunclexcommunicate


We are now the worlds largest Debtor, it makes a difference.


In todays world devaluing the US dollar would raise the cost of imports make US exports more attractive in price and devalue US debts to foreign countries.

That is a good intermediate goal but it probably isn't going to happen very fast.
The eurozone central bank has more leeway to lower interest rates and that tends to strengthen the dollar. China isn't real happy at the prospect of the US devaluing the huge debt they took on from the US. I'm not sure what they can do to prevent it, but they have been fooling around with the Yuan and buying gold.

It appears China has some leeway to lower interest rates and force the dollar higher as well.

www.tradingeconomics.com...

[edit on 13-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]


OK, raising the price of imports, which is mostly what we consume, is good? Next, what exports? We aint' what we used to be.

I wouldn't underestimate what china can do about it. They are becoming very aggressive in making their currency a 'reserve' currency. We have to realize that all the Trillions held in 'reserve' status under the dollar around the world only have one place to go if they are unseated by foolish devaluation through deficit spending. They'll be coming home!

Beyond that one can see who china is standing behind in geopolitics: Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, etc. All working on furthering nuclear capabilities and ICBM capabilities. Nothing happens in a vaccum.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 08:56 PM
link   
So much fer Cali seceding from the Union... .gov will own a piece of them and fire their Governor next
Da Terminator is "Terminated"



California formally asks Geithner for TARP assistance
May 13, 2009, 9:21 p.m. EST
www.marketwatch.com...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- California Treasurer Bill Lockyer asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Wednesday to authorize assistance for his state from the federal Troubled Asset Relief Program, warning that depressed tax revenues may cut into basic services and halt the building of infrastructure.

In a letter, Lockyer asked Geithner for TARP assistance for California and "other financially strapped states and local governments which face a severe cash flow crunch."

"If we cannot obtain our usual short-term cash-flow borrowings, there could be devastating impacts on the ability of the State or other governments to provide essential services to their citizens," Lockyer wrote.

In particular, Lockyer cited fire and police protection, education and social services.
More at Link...



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 09:18 PM
link   
Already China has call for the drop of the dollar as the preferred currency, they already has prop their currency in the EU, EU officials, Russia, and OPEC countries, already are finding ways to stay away from the dollar.

If our nation doesn't stop the bailouts, the trade deficit, the budget and the financing of two wars it will be the end of the US currency.

When will the dollar be useless? like Paul Craig Roberts, One of America's Most Respected Economist said, when America can not longer afford to pay for imports.

One more year of US unrestrained spending and we all pretty much will see where we will be heading.

Meanwhile China will be waiting patiently because time is in their side, while we are running of it already.



new topics

top topics



 
189
<< 297  298  299    301  302  303 >>

log in

join