It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
A bottom? Where?
To be fair employment is a lagging indicator; there is no pickup in hiring for some time after the economy truly bottoms, usually about 6-9 months. The reason is that people are both slow to fire (they're nice) and slow to hire (they're not convinced the recovery will "take") and as such there is a lag in both the firings when things slow down and the hirings when things begin to recover.
Some investors in 401(k) retirement funds who are moving to grab their money are finding they can't.
Even with recent gains in stocks such as Monday's, the months of market turmoil have delivered a blow to some 401(k) participants: freezing their investments in certain plans. In some cases, individual investors can't withdraw money from certain retirement-plan options. In other cases, employers are having trouble getting rid of risky investments in 401(k) plans.
When Ed Dursky was laid off from his job at a manufacturing company in March, he couldn't withdraw $40,000 from his 401(k) retirement account invested in the Principal U.S. Property Separate Account.
That fund, which invests directly in office buildings and other properties, had stopped allowing most investors to make withdrawals last fall as many of its holdings became hard to sell.
Now Mr. Dursky, of Ottumwa, Iowa, is looking for work and losing patience. All he wants, he said, is his money.
Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
The government seems to be stepping aside now that banks have raised their capital. . .
Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC 12.94, -1.23) was told last week that it needs more Tier 1 capital [$34 bil.], but the company didn't offer any immediate plans to satisfy the measure during a conference call today
With stocks jumping 35 percent in less than two months, you can't help but ask the question: Is history repeating itself?
Remember the pictures back in history line,
Crowds panic in the Wall Street district of Manhattan due to the heavy trading on the stock market in New York City on Oct. 24, 1929.
Investors who want the stock market to go up had better hope not.
The market's moves after the 1929 market crash serve as a scary template that investors hope the current market won't follow.
At that time, stocks plunged about 48 percent in just two months following the Oct. 29 crash, only to surge 48 percent in the next six months.
But the next two years saw a crushing drop in the Dow Jones industrial average—which at that time was trading off a Sept. 3, 1929 high of 381.17—that saw the index lose 86 percent from the high of the rally.
Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by redhatty
The investments concerned in this story are invested in illiquid real esate funds. They own buildings and the such and cant simply liquidate to pay out disributions. It is all in the prospectuses. The question is did the fiduciaries of the plan adequately disclose possible delays from these funds and also did they did do proper due diligence by allowing thses funds in their 401k's.
In otherwords the fault lies with company they work for rather than the investment managers who are only doing what was laid out for anyone doing proper due diligence.
Some stable-value funds also are blocking the exits. These funds, available only in tax-deferred savings plans such as 401(k)s, typically invest in bonds and use bank or insurance-company contracts to help smooth returns. But in cases of employer bankruptcy and other events that can cause withdrawals, these funds can lock up investor money for months at a time.
Retirement plans offered to employees of energy company BP PLC last fall tried to withdraw entirely from four Northern Trust Corp. index funds engaged in securities lending. Certain holdings in Northern's collateral pools had defaulted, been marked down, or become so illiquid that they could only be sold at low values, according to a BP complaint filed in a lawsuit against Northern Trust.
State Street Corp. in March notified investors of new withdrawal restrictions in its securities-lending funds. Until at least the end of the year, plans can make monthly withdrawals of only 2% to 4% of their account balance, the notice said.
Banks are overvalued and the government enabled them to have better first quarter earnings than they should, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.
"At a core basis, I would not own these stocks," Whitney said in a live interview. "Their business models are not going to come back."
Whitney, a former analyst at Oppenheimer who has her own firm, is renowned for calling out the problems with banks' toxic assets before the issue became widespread.
"This is the great government momentum trade," Whitney said on why bank stocks had seen some improvement lately. "But the underlying core, earnings power of these banks is negligible."
At that time, stocks plunged about 48 percent in just two months following the Oct. 29 crash, only to surge 48 percent in the next six months. But the next two years saw a crushing drop in the Dow Jones industrial average—which at that time was trading off a Sept. 3, 1929 high of 381.17—that saw the index lose 86 percent from the high of the rally.
In every economic crisis or mushrooming recession, the MSM and the leadership classes always talk up how great things really are, and how great things are going to get in just a little while, putting on a brave face and putting out optimistic talk—and that's fine: That sort of mild deception is not only acceptable, it is in fact necessary. Putting on the happy mask is not the issue.
The issue is, what's behind the happy mask. In other words, what are the people in power actually doing, and do they have any sense that they know what they're doing, or where they're going? Or are they making it up as they go along? Are they on a path—even if it's the wrong path, or one I don't agree with—or are they lost in a wilderness and just going around in circles?
That's my problem. That's why I'm freaking out.
Sixteen months into this Millennial Depression, and less than a business quarter into Obama's administration, it is inescapably clear that Team Obama hasn't the slightest idea what it's doing. To pretend otherwise is self-deception. The louts and Constitutional traitors of the Bush administration didn't much know what they were doing either—but they were flat stupid. Team Obama doesn't have that excuse.
Between RealPoint and TREPP, any investor who has the reading comprehension of an 8 year old, the excel skills of a moderately well-trained primate and access to either or both of these databases, should be able to extract sufficient data that will promptly indicate just what commercial real estate is shooting up these days. Whatever it is, it sure ain't green. Also begs the question of just what qualifications one needs these days to be a REIT analyst for a major recently acquired investment bank (or for a real-estate focused asset manager that just happens to rhyme with colon and sneers, for that matter) if failure in either of the above categories is not grounds for flunking the application process.
Some more CRE charts coutresy of TREPP.
The bank stress test results, released Thursday, suggested that the nation’s 19 biggest banks could expect nearly $82.4 billion in credit card losses by the end of 2010 under what federal regulators called an adverse economic situation.
But if unemployment breaches 10 percent, as many economists predict, the rate of uncollectible balances at some banks could far exceed that level. At American Express and Capital One Financial, around 20 percent of the credit card balances are expected to go bad over this year and next, according to stress test results. At Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, about 23 percent of card loans are expected to sour.
Even the government’s grim projections may vastly understate the size of the banks’ credit card troubles. According to estimates by Oliver Wyman, a management consulting firm, card losses at the nation’s biggest banks could reach $141.5 billion by 2010 if the regulators’ loss rate was applied to their entire credit card business. It could top $186 billion for the entire credit card industry.
Originally posted by marg6043
Banks move to sell stocks to raise capital need more scrutiny and people needs to be very careful.
MAY 11, 2009
Hoover, AL school board -16 J
apan Air announces job cuts -1,200
United Solar continues temporary layoffs -425
Dell NC layoffs revealed -260
American General Finance -140
Vista, CA Unified School District -12
Arcelor Mittal temp layoffs -912
Spokane, WA Public Schools -193
State of NJ layoffs looming -700
Capstone Theraputics -7
Jack in the Box Distribution Center -64
Berryville Graphics -47
FS Elliott to cut global workforce by 10%
Caterpillar (France) -733
Mecalux (Spain) -987
Taft City, CA School District -12
National Research Group -30
Quad City Die -120
CBC (Canada) faces potential layoffs -800
BBDO Atlanta -30
NASA cuts in FL lead to lost jobs -3,500
San Diego, CA County -770
Maimonedes Health Center -170
Shelby County, TN -100
EU officials warn of impending social crisis due to high unemployment
Chart: job losses in this recession compared to previous ones
Krugman - get ready for a "lost decade"
Targeted job cuts hit workers due to collect pensions
White House forecasts zero job growth until 2010
Originally posted by redhatty
Hmm, KD did a great ticker today re: tax receipts & economy (and more)
The Economic Tsunami Is Curling Over
California is responsible for thirteen percent of the total US GDP and if it were an independent nation it would be the tenth largest economy in the world.
The idea that we can have some sort of economic recovery while the sales tax receipts - which are a direct measurement of consumer activity - are down by half is pure insanity. Where is the economic activity that is going to create this "recovery"?
As the economy performs worse than expected, the deficit for the 2010 budget year beginning in October will worsen by $87 billion to $1.3 trillion, the White House says. The deterioration reflects lower tax revenues and higher costs for bank failures, unemployment benefits and food stamps.
Originally posted by stander
Down by half? With respect to what?
I'm sick and tired of those "economists" who withhold an essential info -- those incompetent a-holes that the Internet is infested with.
California Taxable Sales stats for 2009 is not available yet. The projection shows that it will decline by 6% in 2009 from the previous year.
Where do these rogue economists get their data from? 50% decline in taxable sales from Q1 to Q2 means fiscal catastrophe that couldn't possibly go unnoticed by Sacramento.
How can anyone raise an argument based on some unrealistic figures that lack its primary source?
Sales taxes were $452 million lower (-50.9%) than last April
Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by redhatty
The point is that very few 401k's are effected by this and it is only done to prevent a rush to the exits which destroys the value for the remaining investors and only in three types of funds, those that allow securities lending, REITS, and stable value funds. Th REITS are up 60% from the bottom. These folks are lucky they couldn't sell. You shouldn't blame the fund companies as they disclose that withdrawls could be delayed if too many people try to sell at one time. Investors in the same 401k's who chose different funds have no problems. It is fund specific and not 401k specific.