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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on May, 11 2009 @ 01:39 PM
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Hmm, KD did a great ticker today re: tax receipts & economy (and more)

The Economic Tsunami Is Curling Over

And another one that covers Fed Oversight

As I have been on and "extended vacation" I am still catching up on all the news and there is quite a bit to catch up on.

Today's report from California which says the White House has said either stop the wage cuts (to the union state workers) or lose stimulus money was enough to make my hair stand up.

One just has to wonder how a supposed "senior lecturer on constitutional law" who becomes president can have so little regard for state's rights and the limits of power to the Federal Government.

Oh and the Budget Deficit at 1.8 Trillion!!! and we will have to BORROW 50 cents on EVERY DOLLAR the .gov spends.

Wow the interest rates on the bonds & T-bills are gonna go sky high just to entice people to buy our debt in the first place




posted on May, 11 2009 @ 02:32 PM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


I tell you what redhatty, we need to e-mail that report on your link to our morons, I mean geniuses in congress and the Obama financial team because so far they are clueless of what is needed for this nation to recuperate.

You are right the record deficit and is not even 6 months of the year is unacceptable.

from your link,


A bottom? Where?

To be fair employment is a lagging indicator; there is no pickup in hiring for some time after the economy truly bottoms, usually about 6-9 months. The reason is that people are both slow to fire (they're nice) and slow to hire (they're not convinced the recovery will "take") and as such there is a lag in both the firings when things slow down and the hirings when things begin to recover.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 04:35 PM
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Ford is offering 300 million shares to pay for retiree healthcare trust.
finance.yahoo.com...

Stock is down 6% AH.

They already offered shares to pay for debt and the stock moved up substantially from there. This stock offering probably will not be viewed as the same because they are paying for retirement benefits and it has already moved up 400% from the march lows. Just my analysis.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 04:53 PM
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Oh boy, as I am catching up on things after my extended vacation, I find this wonderful news:

401(k)s Hit by Withdrawal Freezes

Investors Cry Foul as Some Funds Close Exits; Perils of Distressed Markets


Some investors in 401(k) retirement funds who are moving to grab their money are finding they can't.

Even with recent gains in stocks such as Monday's, the months of market turmoil have delivered a blow to some 401(k) participants: freezing their investments in certain plans. In some cases, individual investors can't withdraw money from certain retirement-plan options. In other cases, employers are having trouble getting rid of risky investments in 401(k) plans.

When Ed Dursky was laid off from his job at a manufacturing company in March, he couldn't withdraw $40,000 from his 401(k) retirement account invested in the Principal U.S. Property Separate Account.

That fund, which invests directly in office buildings and other properties, had stopped allowing most investors to make withdrawals last fall as many of its holdings became hard to sell.

Now Mr. Dursky, of Ottumwa, Iowa, is looking for work and losing patience. All he wants, he said, is his money.


Well, can't say I didn't warn the folks here...

And for a link to the info from my earlier post, Strings Attached

the title of the article referenced in the above link:

U.S. threatens to rescind stimulus money over wage cuts
The Obama administration threatens to rescind billions in stimulus money if Gov. Schwarzenegger and lawmakers do not restore wage cuts to unionized home healthcare workers.

Welcome to the Obama Dictatorship folks

[edit on 5/11/09 by redhatty]



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 05:00 PM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


The investments concerned in this story are invested in illiquid real esate funds. They own buildings and the such and cant simply liquidate to pay out disributions. It is all in the prospectuses. The question is did the fiduciaries of the plan adequately disclose possible delays from these funds and also did they did do proper due diligence by allowing thses funds in their 401k's.

In otherwords the fault lies with company they work for rather than the investment managers who are only doing what was laid out for anyone doing proper due diligence.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 05:47 PM
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Originally posted by RetinoidReceptor
The government seems to be stepping aside now that banks have raised their capital. . .



Meanwhile, Bank of America (BAC 12.94, -1.23) was told last week that it needs more Tier 1 capital [$34 bil.], but the company didn't offer any immediate plans to satisfy the measure during a conference call today


Marg wasn't home when BofA called, and the execs didn't leave a message. That's why the immediate plans are not known.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 06:06 PM
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reply to post by stander
 


I thought that the government reduced the amount of capital for the banks in order to make it easier for them to comply after they were crying foul play.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 06:11 PM
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Watch out for those stocks sales, because history can repeat itself.

Stock Pullbacks Then and Now: Is History About to Repeat Itself?


With stocks jumping 35 percent in less than two months, you can't help but ask the question: Is history repeating itself?

Remember the pictures back in history line,

Crowds panic in the Wall Street district of Manhattan due to the heavy trading on the stock market in New York City on Oct. 24, 1929.

Investors who want the stock market to go up had better hope not.

The market's moves after the 1929 market crash serve as a scary template that investors hope the current market won't follow.

At that time, stocks plunged about 48 percent in just two months following the Oct. 29 crash, only to surge 48 percent in the next six months.

But the next two years saw a crushing drop in the Dow Jones industrial average—which at that time was trading off a Sept. 3, 1929 high of 381.17—that saw the index lose 86 percent from the high of the rally.


Banks move to sell stocks to raise capital need more scrutiny and people needs to be very careful.

www.cnbc.com...



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 06:25 PM
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Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by redhatty
 


The investments concerned in this story are invested in illiquid real esate funds. They own buildings and the such and cant simply liquidate to pay out disributions. It is all in the prospectuses. The question is did the fiduciaries of the plan adequately disclose possible delays from these funds and also did they did do proper due diligence by allowing thses funds in their 401k's.

In otherwords the fault lies with company they work for rather than the investment managers who are only doing what was laid out for anyone doing proper due diligence.


True for Principal U.S. Property Separate Account, but the article does mention other accounts that are also blocking withdrawals.


Some stable-value funds also are blocking the exits. These funds, available only in tax-deferred savings plans such as 401(k)s, typically invest in bonds and use bank or insurance-company contracts to help smooth returns. But in cases of employer bankruptcy and other events that can cause withdrawals, these funds can lock up investor money for months at a time.

[snip]

Retirement plans offered to employees of energy company BP PLC last fall tried to withdraw entirely from four Northern Trust Corp. index funds engaged in securities lending. Certain holdings in Northern's collateral pools had defaulted, been marked down, or become so illiquid that they could only be sold at low values, according to a BP complaint filed in a lawsuit against Northern Trust.

[snip]

State Street Corp. in March notified investors of new withdrawal restrictions in its securities-lending funds. Until at least the end of the year, plans can make monthly withdrawals of only 2% to 4% of their account balance, the notice said.


Most companies simply sign on to fund provider company to manage the employees 401(k)s and have limits (10% of contribution) to how much can be invested into the employee's company's stock.

Fidelity, Prudential, Principal and many other companies are fund providers/managers. These companies and their funds were, most likely, doing just fine when the Employee's company created the contract with these fund companies to manage the 401(k)s for the company.

But now, when the layoff happen & the economy is in crisis, people need their money. Most people. of course, do not realize that a 401(k) is really a tax-deferred savings account and not a "retirement" account, and most people also have NO IDEA where the fund managers actually invest their money.

Once the Employee's company signs the contract with a Fund provider, they expect that provider to do a diligent job in investing safely for their employees. Rarely do you have a person within the employee's company that knows all the ins and outs of the actions taken by a fund provider/manager company, So placing the blame on the employee's company is not justified, IMO.

While I do believe that personal responsibility is a big factor, and that anyone who invest money, in any way, should at least try to learn the basics of investing and keep a close eye on their accounts, this does not happen. At least it does not happen often enough.

This is just the beginning, we will see more and more that 401(k)s will not be available for withdrawal, even when the employee leaves the company, for whatever reasons. As these first few examples set a precedent, the rest will soon follow.

I would not be surprised if very soon we hear of a new directive from the Obama Admin that restricts 401(k) withdrawals.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 06:40 PM
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I read this article and I found it very interesting amid the banks big sell.

I Would Not Own Bank Stocks: Meredith Whitney


Banks are overvalued and the government enabled them to have better first quarter earnings than they should, well-known analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

"At a core basis, I would not own these stocks," Whitney said in a live interview. "Their business models are not going to come back."

Whitney, a former analyst at Oppenheimer who has her own firm, is renowned for calling out the problems with banks' toxic assets before the issue became widespread.

"This is the great government momentum trade," Whitney said on why bank stocks had seen some improvement lately. "But the underlying core, earnings power of these banks is negligible."


www.cnbc.com...



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 07:57 PM
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From Marg:


At that time, stocks plunged about 48 percent in just two months following the Oct. 29 crash, only to surge 48 percent in the next six months. But the next two years saw a crushing drop in the Dow Jones industrial average—which at that time was trading off a Sept. 3, 1929 high of 381.17—that saw the index lose 86 percent from the high of the rally.


The "W" bottom that occurred after 1929 crash is a fairly common pattern. We saw that in the Dow after 9/11. Double bottoms of varying period lengths often signal the end of a decline.

Markets have rally's and they have pull backs regardless of what the underlying economic truth turns out to be later once you have 20/20 hind sight.

GBM seems to have pretty good handle on market psychology. You go with the trend until it breaks and try to keep your own ego bias out of the decision as much as possible.

My friends that are long thought the top might be 8000 back in March, but they have continued to shift their estimates higher as the rally continued.

If there is a pullback no one knows where the slide might end.
Usually we have a long string of rising bottoms or at least bottoms to use as a trading range guide. We have had declining bottoms after every major rally since 2007 up to now.

Once we have a clearer trading range to establish trend the markets will be a little more attractive to investors. DCA is great for getting rid of daily, weekly or even some monthly fluctuations, but folks that have chased the stock market down using DCA since 2007 without selling, like my parents may not live to see a profit.

[edit on 11-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]

[edit on 11-5-2009 by fromunclexcommunicate]



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 10:00 PM
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Zero Hedge Guest Post: Why I Am Freaking Out.


In every economic crisis or mushrooming recession, the MSM and the leadership classes always talk up how great things really are, and how great things are going to get in just a little while, putting on a brave face and putting out optimistic talk—and that's fine: That sort of mild deception is not only acceptable, it is in fact necessary. Putting on the happy mask is not the issue.

The issue is, what's behind the happy mask. In other words, what are the people in power actually doing, and do they have any sense that they know what they're doing, or where they're going? Or are they making it up as they go along? Are they on a path—even if it's the wrong path, or one I don't agree with—or are they lost in a wilderness and just going around in circles?

That's my problem. That's why I'm freaking out.

Sixteen months into this Millennial Depression, and less than a business quarter into Obama's administration, it is inescapably clear that Team Obama hasn't the slightest idea what it's doing. To pretend otherwise is self-deception. The louts and Constitutional traitors of the Bush administration didn't much know what they were doing either—but they were flat stupid. Team Obama doesn't have that excuse.


More at link.

And this is pure ATS material; a Zero Hedge Exclusive: One Whistleblower's Fight Against Goliath Over The Definition of Risk

Finally, Zero Hedge: Some More CRE Venus Fly Trap Shoots


Between RealPoint and TREPP, any investor who has the reading comprehension of an 8 year old, the excel skills of a moderately well-trained primate and access to either or both of these databases, should be able to extract sufficient data that will promptly indicate just what commercial real estate is shooting up these days. Whatever it is, it sure ain't green. Also begs the question of just what qualifications one needs these days to be a REIT analyst for a major recently acquired investment bank (or for a real-estate focused asset manager that just happens to rhyme with colon and sneers, for that matter) if failure in either of the above categories is not grounds for flunking the application process.

Some more CRE charts coutresy of TREPP.


Charts at link.

This is on the horizon ... New York Times: Banks Brace for Credit Card Write-Offs


The bank stress test results, released Thursday, suggested that the nation’s 19 biggest banks could expect nearly $82.4 billion in credit card losses by the end of 2010 under what federal regulators called an adverse economic situation.

But if unemployment breaches 10 percent, as many economists predict, the rate of uncollectible balances at some banks could far exceed that level. At American Express and Capital One Financial, around 20 percent of the credit card balances are expected to go bad over this year and next, according to stress test results. At Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, about 23 percent of card loans are expected to sour.

Even the government’s grim projections may vastly understate the size of the banks’ credit card troubles. According to estimates by Oliver Wyman, a management consulting firm, card losses at the nation’s biggest banks could reach $141.5 billion by 2010 if the regulators’ loss rate was applied to their entire credit card business. It could top $186 billion for the entire credit card industry.


More at link.

[edit on 11-5-2009 by theWCH]

[edit on 11-5-2009 by theWCH]



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 10:28 PM
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Originally posted by marg6043

Banks move to sell stocks to raise capital need more scrutiny and people needs to be very careful.

www.cnbc.com...

No, they don't, coz that doesn't make sense -- it's like if you borrow money from yourself. Equity capital is essential to the banks, coz it determines the amount you can lend out. Equity capital are essentially banks' shares. The fed regulation says that the amount you can lend out must not exceed 15 to 30 percent of you equity capital. The exact percentage is determined by the government and is usually those 15 percent of equity capital. But most banks consider even this percentage too high, and most of the banks have their own in-house rule that says to cut the 15% by another 50% to avoid a single exposure.

The stress test measured the ability of the banks to withstand losses incurred by unsecured loans. The number of such defaults is expected to rise with rising unemployment.

But the point is that even if the economy improves, the banks got their capital equity depreciated. BofA shares once traded for $40 and now they do for $13. This economy depends on borrowing to raise capital necessary to invest in economic expansion. The traders know that if the economy is to expand, banks will blow into the balloon and make money. So it's a gamble. If you buy BofA shares for $13 each and the economic forecast says that the economy would be okay in the last quarter of 2011, then buying BofA shares is a good two year investment. There is no way to have a good economy with BofA shares trading for $13. But everything depends on IF. The crystal balls are not that simple to see through as it used to be.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 11:45 PM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


The point is that very few 401k's are effected by this and it is only done to prevent a rush to the exits which destroys the value for the remaining investors and only in three types of funds, those that allow securities lending, REITS, and stable value funds. Th REITS are up 60% from the bottom. These folks are lucky they couldn't sell. You shouldn't blame the fund companies as they disclose that withdrawls could be delayed if too many people try to sell at one time. Investors in the same 401k's who chose different funds have no problems. It is fund specific and not 401k specific.



posted on May, 11 2009 @ 11:59 PM
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LAYOFF DAILY
MAY 11, 2009


Crocs -37
Hoover, AL school board -16 J
apan Air announces job cuts -1,200
United Solar continues temporary layoffs -425
Dell NC layoffs revealed -260
American General Finance -140
Vista, CA Unified School District -12
Arcelor Mittal temp layoffs -912
Spokane, WA Public Schools -193
State of NJ layoffs looming -700
Capstone Theraputics -7
Jack in the Box Distribution Center -64
Berryville Graphics -47
FS Elliott to cut global workforce by 10%
Caterpillar (France) -733
Mecalux (Spain) -987
Taft City, CA School District -12
National Research Group -30
Quad City Die -120
CBC (Canada) faces potential layoffs -800
BBDO Atlanta -30
NASA cuts in FL lead to lost jobs -3,500
San Diego, CA County -770
Maimonedes Health Center -170
Shelby County, TN -100

EU officials warn of impending social crisis due to high unemployment
www.neurope.eu...

Chart: job losses in this recession compared to previous ones
economix.blogs.nytimes.com...
UM RECESSION????

Krugman - get ready for a "lost decade"
uk.reuters.com...

Targeted job cuts hit workers due to collect pensions
www.motherjones.com...

White House forecasts zero job growth until 2010
www.nytimes.com...




posted on May, 12 2009 @ 01:17 AM
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Originally posted by redhatty
Hmm, KD did a great ticker today re: tax receipts & economy (and more)

The Economic Tsunami Is Curling Over


California is responsible for thirteen percent of the total US GDP and if it were an independent nation it would be the tenth largest economy in the world.

The idea that we can have some sort of economic recovery while the sales tax receipts - which are a direct measurement of consumer activity - are down by half is pure insanity. Where is the economic activity that is going to create this "recovery"?

Down by half? With respect to what?
I'm sick and tired of those "economists" who withhold an essential info -- those incompetent a-holes that the Internet is infested with.

California Taxable Sales stats for 2009 is not available yet. The projection shows that it will decline by 6% in 2009 from the previous year.
www.dof.ca.gov...

Where do these rogue economists get their data from? 50% decline in taxable sales from Q1 to Q2 means fiscal catastrophe that couldn't possibly go unnoticed by Sacramento.

How can anyone raise an argument based on some unrealistic figures that lack its primary source?



posted on May, 12 2009 @ 04:48 AM
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S&P 500 +4.30 913.30 5/12 5:30am
Fair Value 906.56 5/11 10:39pm
Difference* +6.74

NASDAQ +8.25 1405.00 5/12 5:13am
Fair Value 1394.35 5/11 10:39pm
Difference* +10.65

Dow Jones +34.00 8436.00 5/12 4:54am
===
FTSE 100 4,442.24 5:32AM ET Up 6.74 (0.15%)
CAC 40 3,254.50 5:47AM ET Up 5.83 (0.18%)
DAX 4,901.82 5:32AM ET Up 34.91 (0.72%)
===
Shanghai Composite 2,618.17 3:00AM ET Up 38.42 (1.49%)
Hang Seng 17,153.64 5:32AM ET Up 65.69 (0.38%)
Nikkei 225 9,298.61 3:00AM ET Down 153.37 (1.62%)
Taiwan Weighted 6,432.55 1:46AM ET Down 214.95 (3.23%)



posted on May, 12 2009 @ 06:32 AM
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reply to post by marg6043
 

marg, do you collect rarities? If so, I got something in my bag for you:


As the economy performs worse than expected, the deficit for the 2010 budget year beginning in October will worsen by $87 billion to $1.3 trillion, the White House says. The deterioration reflects lower tax revenues and higher costs for bank failures, unemployment benefits and food stamps.


Pretty cool, isn't it? The rare "worse than expected" kind.

Hey, marg, can you like look around if you can find a case where something goes "exactly as expected?" We can swap -- I give you the "worse than expected" for the "exactly as expected."





posted on May, 12 2009 @ 06:46 AM
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Originally posted by stander
Down by half? With respect to what?
I'm sick and tired of those "economists" who withhold an essential info -- those incompetent a-holes that the Internet is infested with.

California Taxable Sales stats for 2009 is not available yet. The projection shows that it will decline by 6% in 2009 from the previous year.
www.dof.ca.gov...

Where do these rogue economists get their data from? 50% decline in taxable sales from Q1 to Q2 means fiscal catastrophe that couldn't possibly go unnoticed by Sacramento.

How can anyone raise an argument based on some unrealistic figures that lack its primary source?


Stander, maybe you missed THIS which clearly states on page 2


Sales taxes were $452 million lower (-50.9%) than last April


Maybe you should retract a portion of your "rogue economist" comment, seems they are simply better informed than you are today



posted on May, 12 2009 @ 06:51 AM
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Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
reply to post by redhatty
 


The point is that very few 401k's are effected by this and it is only done to prevent a rush to the exits which destroys the value for the remaining investors and only in three types of funds, those that allow securities lending, REITS, and stable value funds. Th REITS are up 60% from the bottom. These folks are lucky they couldn't sell. You shouldn't blame the fund companies as they disclose that withdrawls could be delayed if too many people try to sell at one time. Investors in the same 401k's who chose different funds have no problems. It is fund specific and not 401k specific.


Oh I agree that it is fund specific. But....

I really do foresee that all 401(k) withdrawals will be blocked soon. I hope I am wrong, but there is nothing in the actions of the Obama Admin so far that make me doubt it for one second.



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