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Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by Hx3_1963
As long as the unemployment keeps rising is not way that the economy can see any signs of recovery not matter how much the markets are propped by funneling money into the banks.
It's a symptom of the real estate market crashing. The Manhattan residential market is now in free fall, after holding up better than every major market in the country for years. Rents have fallen up to 25% since the Lehman bankruptcy in September, dragging down condominium and co-op prices almost as fast. Hardest hit have been units priced in the $1-$2 million range that appealed to up and coming Wall Street traders. This class of newly unemployed former owners is now fleeing the Big Apple en masse. The stratospheric end of the market, the mega mansions and penthouses with those fabulous Central Park views and live-in nanny suites in the $30 million on up range, are still holding up. With industry job losses this year expected to exceed 100,000, expect this downtrend to continue. www.madhedgefundtrader.com.
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Commercial Real Estate Collapse Picking Up Steam
Even if banks were being completely honest about their marks -- which we know they're not -- the accelerating collapse of the commercial real estate market would mean billions more in writedowns.
WSJ: The delinquency rate on about $700 billion in securitized loans backed by office buildings, hotels, stores and other investment property has more than doubled since September to 1.8% this month, according to data provided to The Wall Street Journal by Deutsche Bank AG. While that's low compared with the home-mortgage delinquency rate, it's just short of the highest rate during the last downturn early this decade.
Some experts say it now looks as if the current commercial real-estate slump will rival or even exceed the one in the early 1990s, when bad commercial-property debt played a big role in dragging the economy into a recession. Then, close to 1,000 U.S. banks and savings institutions failed. Lenders took about $48.5 billion in charges on commercial real-estate debt between 1990 and 1995, representing 7.9% of such debt outstanding.
Economists played down the chances of the US entering deflation, in spite of the consumer price index falling 0.1pc fall in March, meaning consumer prices are now 0.4pc cheaper than a year ago, the first fall in the annual rate since August 1955.
White House economic adviser Larry Summers warned that "concern about deflation in the nearer term can be entirely discounted."
But many economists took solace in the fact that the core rate of inflation – stripping out food and fuel – rose by 0.2pc last month.
Originally posted by pause4thought
Incidentally, can you, or somebody else, tell me why the Nasdaq is currently doing a right angle?!
Late Day Trading Summary (Attempt)
Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:28 PM
A different way to look at the late market rally is that it is options related ahead of tomorrow's option expiration... Since index options expire on the opening print, any trading has to be completed today, explaining the trading spike late in the day. Thus, dealers who are short SPX calls have to keep buying futures or SPX cash baskets to keep their hedge on, resulting in purely technical fluctuations in the market.
Couple this with the rumored tremors in quant land and the entire rally, again, is likely not related to individual equities
San Francisco Art Institute -9
Southwest Airlines Buyouts
Raleigh Super Kmart -71
Rochester MN Schools -78
Best Buy -1,000
Harley Davidson -300
Reading Hospital -250
CSX Current Tally -2,300
Innovating Converting Closed -11
Chicago Mayor Warns -1,600
Kane County Court -11
\Land O'Lakes Closing Plant -120
City of Mansfield -50
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center -83
Elyria OH Firefighters -10
Callaway Golf -162
Southfield Schools -150
SPX Dielectric -17
TOTAL - 6,750+
Page County VA Unemployment 17.7%
6 Million People Getting Unemployment
Utah Past Year -32,800
Rutgers University Planning Layoffs
The latest crop of quarterly numbers from the banking industry has proven promising so far. But with every harvest, there's always bound to be a few rotten apples in the bunch.
This quarter, it's likely to once again be Citigroup.
Analysts predict that the embattled bank will be one of only a few major financial institutions to record a net loss this quarter. Citigroup is scheduled to deliver its first-quarter results before Friday's opening bell.
According to current consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters, Wall Street is forecasting a loss of $1.39 billion, or 34 cents a share.
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Fed officials see signs of improvement
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Two top Federal Reserve policy-makers took divergent views on the U.S. economy on Thursday, with the head of the Atlanta Fed seeing a return to growth later this year, while the head of the San Francisco Fed saw the potential for an even deeper contraction.
Lockhart said he expects the recession to end by mid-year with growth slowly picking up in the following months. "Today, the economy is still very weak, but there are some encouraging signs that support cautious optimism," Lockhart told the conference at the Levy Economics Institute in New York.
Yellen, however, took a more cautious interpretation of the latest economic data, saying signs of improvement should not be taken to mean the U.S. economy is out of the woods. "The negative dynamics between the real and financial sides of the economy have created severe downside risks," Yellen said. While Fed credit policies have created "a few welcome signs of stability", financial markets remain highly stressed, making them an impediment to recovery, she warned.
General Growth brings more bad news for banks
"The outlook has worsened," said Anton Schutz, president of Mendon Capital.
In addition, banks could also be forced to renegotiate some loans in order to avoid further losses.
"The banks not necessarily want to own the shopping centers. Prices are very low, so the banks may be under pressure to give more leeway to stressed mall operators or shopping centers operators to continue to operate with the hope they can get through the recession rather than seizing the property, selling it at a fire sale price and having to suffer a large loss," Ellman said.