The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Hmmm...Hmmm...

Fed says plan now to avert inflation
www.reuters.com...

TULSA, Oklahoma (Reuters) - The United States economy will skid more deeply into recession in coming months, Federal Reserve policy-makers warned on Thursday, but it is time to start planning how to wind down spending to avert an inflationary surge.

The president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, Thomas Hoenig, said that hard as it was to predict when the winding-down process must be initiated, it will happen.

"We know it has to happen, but the timing I can't tell you. Nobody knows. We will watch every indicator of data that suggests a recovery is on the way," Hoenig said in response to audience questions after a speech in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

"Failure to do that at the right time means you risk a much higher inflation environment," he added.

Hoenig acknowledged the economy remains "under significant stress" from the ongoing banking crisis. But he said the U.S. central bank cannot wait until it is well into recovery and the job market is strong before acting.

The Fed's second longest-serving policy-maker added that he expects resistance "almost immediately" to any move to raise interest rates or, for example, to start selling off its stash of mortgage-backed securities.

Hoenig and a second regional Fed bank president, Gary Stern of Minneapolis, said there were still significant credit strains holding the economy back and cautioned that an eventual rebound likely will be mild.

"The recession is likely to persist for some time longer, and the initial stage of the recovery seems likely to be subdued," Stern said in remarks prepared for the South Dakota economic summit in Sioux Falls.

"In view of the state of the credit markets, it seems a fair bet that it will take time for momentum to build. But ... as we get into the middle of 2010 and beyond, I would expect to see a resumption of healthy growth," he added.

A third speaker, White House Economic Adviser Lawrence Summers, told the Economic Club in Washington that there were "substantial downdrafts" hindering a U.S. recovery. "Economies don't go from losing 600,000 jobs a month to a terribly happy path overnight," he said.

But Summers added that overstocked inventories were being drawn down and "the sense of a ball falling off a table, which is what the economy has felt like since the middle of last fall, I think we can be reasonably confident that that's going to end within the next few months."

Hoenig said getting the banks back into good health was vital for a sustained recovery.

"The restoration of normal financial activity depends on how we deal with the problems of our largest financial institutions," he said, and policy-makers need to be mindful of public dissatisfaction with costly taxpayer-funded bailouts.

More at Link...

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by Seany
reply to post by spinkyboo

 

lurker Attack

this is one of the "better" job loss statements youve posted in awhile

number wise

- under 10,000 - is better than over 10,000 -
I like the weekend numbers... under 5,000

I'm having such a hard time wrapping my head around this craziness.
It's rather surreal - isn't it?

reply to post by spinkyboo


it truely is, i can honestly say , as a Lurker here , the stuff I see you guys

reporting , HARD NUMBERS , has me worried like nothing else



BTW , doin a great job

Nikkei 225 8,964.11 2:00AM ET Up 48.05 (0.54%)
Seoul Composite 1,336.04 2:02AM ET Up 19.69 (1.50%)
Taiwan Weighted 5,781.96 1:46AM ET Up 114.16 (2.01%)
Shanghai Composite 2,444.23 3:00AM ET Up 64.35 (2.70%)
===
Gold $883.19
===
Yep...and we're supposed to trust Citi, BofA and Wells Fargo ???

online.wsj.com...

Sumitomo Mitsui `Reality Check' Hints at Cracks in Japanese Banks' Capital
www.bloomberg.com...

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. posted an unexpected $3.9 billion loss and announced plans to seek capital, adding to evidence that Japan’s biggest banks may struggle to weather the deepening recession.

The Tokyo-based lender, Japan’s second-largest by market value, yesterday said it may raise as much as 800 billion yen ($8 billion) to restore a balance sheet weakened by bad loans and losses on investments including Barclays Plc. The news came a day after Moody’s Investors Service cut the credit ratings of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and said the bank may need more cash.

Sumitomo Mitsui, Mizuho and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. plowed a combined $11 billion into ailing Western rivals, fueling speculation that they would seize on the global credit crisis to expand abroad. The banks are now retrenching under the weight of swelling investment losses and a recession that’s pushed bankruptcies in Japan to a six-year high.

“It is now reality-check time for those who thought the Japanese banking system had weathered the storm and was going to be a bastion of strength in the global banking system,” said Kirby Daley, a strategist at Newedge Group in Hong Kong. “Mountains of bad loans, topped with cross-shareholdings and stock portfolios which are in the red, in the current environment makes for a very bad mix.”

Sumitomo Mitsui’s shares didn’t trade at the open of the Tokyo market today as sell orders overwhelmed buy offers. They were poised to drop 14 percent following a 16 percent decline in the company’s American depositary receipts. Mizuho slumped 9.6 percent at 9:40 a.m. in Tokyo, it biggest decline in five months, while Mitsubishi UFJ dropped 3.6 percent.

Key developments for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (8316)
investing.businessweek.com...

:snip:

Citigroup To Reportedly Hold 2nd Round Of Bidding For Nikko Cordial
03/20/2009

Citigroup Inc. is planning to hold another round of competitive bidding as early as April for the final selection of a buyer for Nikko Cordial Securities Inc., The Nikkei learned on March 19. Citigroup has initiated opening up Nikko Cordial's books to potential buyers for due diligence, according to sources familiar with the matter. Senior executives of Nikko Cordial are also holding explanatory sessions for potential buyers and replying to inquiries about the company's operations and business structure. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. all expressed interest in acquiring the operations when Citigroup held its first round of bidding in February. Market observers believe that Nikko Cordial could be sold for ¥300 billion or so, but the final figure could be much higher as Citigroup is struggling to sell the company for the highest possible price. At the same time, Citigroup is believed to be emphasizing on selecting a buyer with which it can build a partnership of its own.

Citigroup Reportedly Mulling Stake Sale In Monex
03/5/2009

Citigroup Inc. is planning to sell its 26% stake in Monex Group Inc. as part of the group’s efforts to raise cash, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on March 6. The stake was worth around ¥15.3 billion as of March 5, shares of the company plunged 5.7% after the report. Yumiko Iuchi, a spokeswoman at Nikko Citigroup, declined to comment on the report. It appears that Citigroup has already sounded out several financial companies on the sale of its stake in Monex, the Yomiuri reported. Other Internet-based brokerages and large financial institutions that are looking at boosting up their retail businesses could be interested in the stake, the paper added. Citigroup is also trying to sell Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. Sources told Reuters that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Mizuho Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. have all shown interest in acquiring Nikko Cordial, sources have told Reuters.

Citigroup Reportedly Starts Receiving Interests For Nikko Cordial
02/13/2009

Citigroup Inc. is believed to have started accepting applications from firms interested in acquiring Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. It is believed that nearly 10 firms, which include life insurers and investment funds have received invitations to participate in the auction. It is expected that bidding will revolve around Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc.

UPDATE 6-Japan's SMFG facing loss, to raise up to $8 bln
www.reuters.com...

Nikkei edges higher, but banks hit as worries grow
www.reuters.com...

Bank of Japan Members Say Market to Stay Stressed After Fiscal Year End
www.bloomberg.com...

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Really...you can...we are...really...

Just Trust Us, the Banks Are Fine!
finance.yahoo.com...

It's springtime for banks and financial stocks.

The sector at the epicenter of the credit crisis has moved sharply higher off the March lows and was in rally mode again on Thursday thanks to:

* Wells Fargo, which forecast first-quarter profits of $3 billion, far beyond analysts' expectations.

* Continued strength in life insurance stocks amid reports the government will open TARP to the industry.

* A New York Times story, citing officials involved in the government's stress test, which declares "all 19 banks undergoing the exams will pass them. "

The first two points are somewhat self-evident. The last one, however, is a continuation of what many believe is a hoax (or outright crime) being perpetrated on the American people by its government.

By presumably leaking this "news", the government wants to reassure Americans "the banking system, broadly speaking, seems to be in better shape than many people think," as The NY Times reports.

That could be very significant if the problem really is one of a lack of confidence, as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (and his predecessor) seems to believe. But as we discuss in the accompanying video with Jon Najarian of OptionMonster.com, such confidence-boosting measures are counting on the majority of Americans to take the government's word for it and not consider the following:

* The stress tests are being conducted with little transparency - and by the banks themselves.

* The "baseline" stress-test scenario is for unemployment of 8.4%, which is below the actual March reading of 8.5%, which itself understates the pain.

* The "adverse" scenario is for unemployment of 10.3%, which many mainstream economists believe is very likely given current trends - even if the economy already has bottomed since hiring lags a recovery.

* The government has said banks that do fail the stress test will be given additional capital, i.e. we're keeping zombie banks alive - just like Japan! - even as bad loans in commercial real estate and other categories are starting to mount.

* "Many of the largest American lenders...probably need to be bailed out again," The Times reports in its otherwise upbeat story.

* Morgan Stanley is facing larger-than-expected losses on some leveraged loans, The WSJ reports.

* Berkshire Hathaway just got downgraded from Aaa by Moody's.

* GE Capital is sitting on a bad-debt time bomb, according to Steve Eisman of FrontPoint Partners.

Despite these uncomfortable facts - and related concerns about Geithner's Public-Private Investment Program for toxic assets - hope springs eternal the bottom for financial shares really is in.

Only in America.

UPDATE 1-PREVIEW-Life insurers in tough spot, may get Fed aid
www.reuters.com...

No U.S. banks will close due to stress tests: source
www.reuters.com...

U.S. Treasury asking banks keep quiet on tests: source
www.reuters.com...

Morgan Stanley May Take Bond Hit: Report
www.thestreet.com...

Moody's strips Berkshire Hathaway of top rating
www.reuters.com...

The Earnings Bomb Inside GE Capital
finance.yahoo.com...

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Pardon if a Re-Post...

Soros: "Danger of Collapse Has Passed," But Stock Rally Not Sustainable
finance.yahoo.com...

"The real danger of collapse has passed," says legendary financier George Soros. But the "fallout of the collapse" of the banking system "will linger."

In the wake of Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008, authorities were forced to put the financial system remains on "artificial life support, which is where it is now," says Soros, the chairman of Soros Fund Management and author of several books, including most recently The Crash of 2008 and What It Means.

As a result, the billionaire speculator says the stock market's recent rally is doomed to fail. "Now we will face reality," he says, referring to a belief policymakers "did not succeed in recapitalizing the banks to the point where they can lend freely." He added, "talk of zombie banks – unfortunately that's where we are now," Soros says. "Instead of providing lifeblood of credit, [banks] are effectively drawing the lifeblood of activity of profit to themselves."

That, in turn, will keep the economy from producing anything more than a fleeting bounce for the foreseeable future, says Soros, in this first part of our extensive interview.

Check out some of the comments at the end of the article...

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


I've had a close look at that interview (and another involving Mr S) in this thread. People talk about a shadow govt. If you believe that to be the case, this gentleman is surely a prime candidate.

PS, Hx, the avatar is a hoot. All it needs now is a brief interjection of Darth Maul...

reply to post by pause4thought
I liked some of the comments after the article...

Half thought he was talking things down to buy 'em on the cheap...

The other half thinks he already owns all of it anyways

Thanks fer the kudos...

I've had a few suggestions, as in, what to add...

1) Obama
2) Satan
3) Goofy
4) Hillary
5) GWB
6) Cheney
7) Summers
8) Volker
9) Darth Vader
and now
10) Darth Maul

There's more, but, those were the most common, that I can remember right off...

Some others I thought of: Lenin, Tsu, Chevez, Sham WOW Guy, Billy Mays, Tony Little, Terry Hanks (A local used car salesman), ect

Feeder Cattle
98.15 1.575

Pork Bellies
87 -1.05

Lean Hogs
58 -0.375

Live Cattle
84.60 0.825

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Why trust a man who gutted a whole country to get a 3billion dollar profit?
Soros makes me sick.

reply to post by Tentickles


Heretic. That's naked market capitalism. I say the guy gets a knighthood.



reply to post by Hx3_1963


How come nos. 1 to 3 are all the same?


PS A big welcome to all those lurkers out there. Nice to see y'all popping your heads above the parapet now & then.

PS A big welcome to all those lurkers out there. Nice to see y'all popping your heads above the parapet now & then.

I am a big fan of this thread and Mr. Skittles he just doesn't know it. I may need him in the near future to shower me with Skittles.

I keep having to bump up my bug out date every time i look at this thread

Overseas Borrowers Sell Dollar Bonds at Record Yearly Pace

By John Detrixhe

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea and Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. led overseas borrowers offering $10 billion in dollar- denominated bonds this week, as foreign issuers sell debt in the U.S. at the fastest pace on record.

Overseas issuers sold $180 billion of debt in dollars this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. South Korea, Asia’s fourth-largest economy, sold its first dollar bonds in more than two years. Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa, the operator of phone, ports, property, energy and retail businesses in 54 countries, sold $1.5 billion of 10-year notes in its first dollar-bond offering since 2003.

Foreign companies and governments, seeking to sell longer- dated maturities to a deeper pool of investors amid a global financial crisis, are issuing debt in dollars to repair their balance sheets and ensure liquidity, said James Merli, head of U.S. fixed-income syndicate at Barclays Capital in New York. Pacific Rim borrowers issued $7.3 billion of dollar debt this week, the region’s second-biggest week this year.

The article goes on to describe how profitable it is to buy and sell dollars essentially. But they are missing the point. People are selling their dollar denominated debt instruments because they are SCARED OF THE DOLLAR.


And the Fed can switch to fighting inflation all they want. They have already crossed the threshold. Especially since they decided to monetize another $1.15 trillion in debt. Who do these people think they are kidding?

Originally posted by stander

This gets settled

Top US lawmakers said Thursday that Congress would take action if accounting regulators and rulemakers failed to quickly improve the mark-to-market accounting standard that has forced banks to record billions of dollars in asset writedowns.

and the banks will record only the good news. That will stabilize the banks in the eyes of the traders and in less than one month, the Dow will snake around the 8k beam.

Amen.

Hopes that the economic slump may be abating and some stabilization may be returning in the banking sector have helped underpin a month-long recovery in stocks from 12-year closing lows hit early last month.

finance.yahoo.com...

Ben, first thing first: You need to stabilize the banks. What? . . . . I don't care how you gonna do it. Just do it. Alright. Alright. I see you at the Congressional hearing. . . . You too. Amen.

What else needs to be done? Psalms . . . Ezekiel . . . Genesis . . . Numbers . . . Numbers!
www.bibletexts.com...

22:1-24:25, A Crescendo of Hope: Balak and Balaam and the Blessing of Israel.

Hello? Federal Reserve, please . . . . .
Ben? That's me again. I found the crescendo of hope for the banks guideline. Got your pencil ready?

Okay this is just outright crazy. Who can read this and feel that the banks are solvent. Fed Orders banks to be quiet!!!?

Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.



www.bloomberg.com...



I have a few choice words for the Fed that would get me banned from this site.

Happy Spring to all!

I'm off to hunt eggs and play with small children who yet give me hope...wishing y'all a beautiful weekend no matter what!

New word:

Bando: Someone who lives in an abandoned home.

From the NY Times: More Squatters Are Calling Foreclosures Home

When the woman who calls herself Queen Omega moved into a three-bedroom house here last December, she introduced herself to the neighbors, signed contracts for electricity and water and ordered an Internet connection.

What she did not tell anyone was that she had no legal right to be in the home.
...
Michael Stoops, executive director of the National Coalition for the Homeless, said about a dozen advocacy groups around the country were actively moving homeless people into vacant homes ...
So now we have organized bandos! And it sounds like the competition is fierce:
“At 10 o’clock in the morning, I went over to the house just to make sure everything was O.K., and squatters took over our squat. Then we went to another place nearby, and squatters were in that place also.”

Let's see how "they" start handling THIS lil' situation...in Texas,the "homestead act" is still in play and if you squat long enough,it's yours!

I'm going to go look for a nice 3 bedroom that's vacant and set up camp....wanna' join me? We could have lots of market-related chats,lots of swearing at the Fed,and above all,skittles galore!

[edit on 10-4-2009 by irishchic]

reply to post by irishchic


Well that is what happen when loopholes are there not only for the greedy and powerful but also for the needy and poor.

I am glad this happening.



I am going to research on my area to see what treasure I can find.

reply to post by Tentickles


Soros makes me sick as well. The world would be a much better place if we got rid of everyone worth over a Billion dollars.

Originally posted by elston
Okay this is just outright crazy. Who can read this and feel that the banks are solvent. Fed Orders banks to be quiet!!!?

Fed Said to Order Banks to Stay Mum on ‘Stress Test’ Results

April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.



www.bloomberg.com...



I have a few choice words for the Fed that would get me banned from this site.

The banks are better than most think. I believe they are just trying to stem outrage from us giving them so much money only to watch them turn billion dollar profits.

That said it is what it is, thus the market moves upwards.

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity


I hope you are right but I would think they would like to release such news to show the public that things are getting better. Do you think people will be less upset when the news is released? Some headlines I have been reading lately still make me a little hesitant. But once again I hope you're right. Where are you getting your information?

Grounding (Dr. Joern Berninger...Financial Crisis Blog)

The last days of operational markets (Part 1)

We have experienced great decades of freedom and growth. If one looks back in the history of mankind this is a very unusual combination. Rarely such a long period of freedom was experienced in Europe and the rest of the western world. Enormous wealth was created by people and through the security and viability of the system, this freedom could be maintained for a very long period of time. One should keep this in mind, when looking at the recent financial and economic crisis.

Now, in the last days of March 2009, we experience a bear market rally. But there is an increasing chance that very soon this rally will turn into a disastrous downturn of the markets. For those who have forgotten about history, this will most likely become a costly lesson.

Remember what happened after the start of the First World War. Stock markets were closed around the world. Protectionism and attack of capital rights shocked investors – and if the war itself would not have come as a greater concern to many, it would have cost outrage in the streets. You might also recall that it took years for the stock markets to operate again.

Last year Nouriel Rubini predicted that markets would have to be closed. With his blunt statement he scared many people. Now he was amongst the first ones to warn of a bear market rally. In case he will be proven right, then we can anticipate that the markets will experience severe and more trouble than in 2008.

Another prediction which comes to match Roubini´s prediction somehow was my prediction on server market turmoil between April 7th and 5th of May 2009. There is little time left to go and the signs seem to confirm my deepest concerns.

The issues which piled up the last days are so massive that no one half way intelligent should consider this bear market rally as a sign for economic recovery.

We have utilized unprecedented expansive monetary and fiscal policies.
So far stimulus and bail outs show no sign of slowing down the deflationary pressures. Even the UK goes into deflationary mode, after having had negative deflation in Q1 2009.
The UK was also the first large country where central bankers and the prime minister got into discussions about the end of fiscal policy options. That means there is no room to maneuver.
Citizens in all western economies are increasingly unsatisfied with socialism for the rich. Some pessimists can even hear the sound of the Marseilles and the run on “la Bastille”.
The latest declarations on GM and Chrysler will significantly reshape the landscape of business and the bond industry. If these companies go into bankruptcy, as I predicted back in 2007, then a horrible mixture of losses in Bond markets and forced selling will hit the markets.
In this situation bank failures will be the consequences of the game, leading to the worst depression in western history.
Hold, one might say. Don´t be so pessimistic about the future. In reality, I have lost hope that anyone can solve the crisis from getting worse at this moment of time. Policy makers have maneuvered their economies directly into a no return situation. The spending of resources on failed banks and businesses drained the economic resources, which would have been of great help in the "real economy". It further drained trust, motivation and destroyed room for political maneuvers and joint actions. Protectionism will be a result of this.

What will happen in April?

Expect the bond markets to tank. Huge redemptions will strike hedge funds and drive down the leverage in the system, even further. This will create the need for banks to ask the government for more money. The money injected in the financial system to have stabilized the financial system will vanish like a drop of water on a hot stone. The funds the financial system will need to survive will make the former bail outs look like peanuts. In the first phase of the crisis, equity markets became insufficient in helping companies to raise fresh and adequate funding. In April the fire will jump to the bond markets sucking the last oxygen out of the lungs of the financial system. Within an environment where governments have already guaranteed commercial paper, this will collapse the chance for any kind of governmental support to businesses.

Most governments themselves will feel the heat, especially the Anglo-Saxon ones. The amount of debt which has to be issued and bought this year is exceeding demand by far. In an environment where the bond market collapses, investors will hold back even further, as they will expect the bond yields to raise within the short term future. This will become the precursor of significant inflation and state bankruptcy.

Keep further in mind that it wasn´t the year 1929 in which the US faced the most bank failures. It only started in 1930. Bank failures started to spark off as resources got scarce! The fastest way to reduce your resources is to throw them into fire and burn them, instead of keeping them away.

In April investors will experience that their flexibility will be frozen. This It will change the landscape and break with another paradigm. Bank failures of too big to fail institutions will take place or will at least be discussed. Stock markets will tank along with bond markets. Large, known companies will go out of business. Massive lay-offs will be announced. Bond markets will eventually be closed, even though governments need them to work.