The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Interesting tidbit on the subject of "housing": chatted with a friend in Ohio last night,well-employed and hard working.
Has not missed a mortgage payment in 16 years and thought she'd go for a re-finance...NOT!
Because SO many homes in her zipcode have been forclosed on and sold below "estimate/appraisal",her property has also been severaly devalued and now she doesn't qualify for a lower rate...not a thing she can do about it.
So let me get this: you default on your house and move on and oh well and the hard working people among us who pay their bills can't get a break?
It stinks.

Shadow Inventory?
by CalculatedRisk on 4/08/2009 11:06:00 AM
From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: Banks aren't reselling many foreclosed homes
Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources.
...
"We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market," said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac ...

"There is a real danger that there is much more (foreclosure) inventory than we are measuring," said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com in Pennsylvania.
...
In the Bay Area, a Chronicle analysis of data from San Diego's MDA DataQuick shows that more than one-third of foreclosures are in shadow territory - that is, they are not registering in county records as having been resold.

For the 26 months from January 2007 through February 2009, banks repossessed 51,602 homes and condos in the nine-county Bay Area, according to DataQuick. Yet in the same period, only 30,823 foreclosures were resold, leaving about 20,000 bank repos unaccounted for.
I'm not convinced. There might just be a built in a lag between when the banks foreclose to when the properties are finally sold. Instead of using aggregate statistics, it would probably be better to do a survey - follow some number of foreclosures and see what happens to them each month.

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Here's how yer rewarded for a take over these days...

PULTE HOMES, INC. 9.65 10:43AM ET Down 1.12 (10.40%)

CENTEX CP 9.13 10:44AM ET Up 1.51 (19.82%)

Bass Ackward these days...

Larry Krudlow sayz: "Shrinking inventory's good for economy/business"

Sure...right...Uh huh...

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Huh? Acquiring companies always tend to go down on takeovers. This is nothing new. don't tell me you are actually new to the markets? That may explain some of the conclusions that you make.

Inventories of durable goods, those long-lasting items such as metals and furniture, also dropped a record 2.4 percent, while their sales rose 2 percent. Nondurable inventories were down a much slimmer 0.2 percent.

Doesn't that mean that the production will restart because the inventories are going down? Or something else?

So the economy is reversing? People are buying? Or what?

Has not missed a mortgage payment in 16 years and thought she'd go for a re-finance...NOT!

So does that mean that he gets a higher rate or he doesn't get a loan at all?

[edit on 8-4-2009 by Vitchilo]

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
No Star 4 U

Yer probably right, being a stock market guru and all, but, I think it kinda sucks...

Why would I bother acquiring a failing company, just to get shot down by shareholders...

Kinda like Dow's recent deal with R&H...lose either way, once ya announce it...

Take a hit fer re-nigin' or take a hit for completing it...

Don't make much sense to me...of course years from now it might workout, but, in this market...


[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by irishchic


They have been sitting on them for a few years now irish. Many of the houses close to me are still empty after two or more years as the bank can't sell them for the "highs" of the housing market boom. I saw 3 houses on the auction block that I looked at 3 years ago. They are still over priced but better than 1.5 to 2.5 million a pop.
Them sitting on the houses is no big surprise here everyone know's it but no one will talk about it. They have a pipe dream going that one day very SOON they will be worth that much again.

[edit on 8-4-2009 by xoxo stacie]

reply to post by irishchic


hey irishchic, It's going to be right outside the Alamo. Definitely hoping you'll come!

Interesting the Home Builders are half up half down this morning...

No Carp...amazing what people believe...it'll be alright...

Danger lurks behind banks' results
www.reuters.com...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. banks' first-quarter results will show that losses from credit cards and commercial and real estate loans have not yet peaked, and perhaps dash hopes that the worst of the banking crisis has passed.

The January-to-March period is the first full quarter since the industry got hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer bailout money and mergers weeded out several troubled lenders.

Results at large banks such as Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) are expected to improve from the fourth quarter, helped in part by a surge in mortgage refinancings, lower deposit costs and fewer writedowns.

But investors will approach with abundant caution as bank results stream in over the next two weeks. They know the bottom lines will reflect a new accounting rule that may further limit writedowns without actually improving bank balance sheets. And the government is conducting "stress tests" to see which of the 19 biggest lenders may need more capital.

"It's going to be such a muddy picture, which will keep a lot of investors on the sidelines," said Michael Nix, who helps invest $650 million at Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in Greenwood, South Carolina. "There is an expectation that we see a more favorable earnings environment, but that's relative -- it's a question of whether we've caught the falling knife."

The fourth quarter was the sector's first in the red since 1990. Banks now face a deep recession that may not end before 2010, worry over how much new capital they need, and conjecture over how long executives will keep their jobs.

The chief executives of Bank of America, JPMorgan and Citigroup -- Kenneth Lewis, Jamie Dimon and Vikram Pandit, respectively -- said their banks made money in January and February, though Lewis and Dimon said trading results ebbed in March.

Regional banks may fare worse than big banks, given large relative exposure to accelerating losses from consumer loans such as credit cards, commercial and industrial loans, and commercial real estate.

Analysts on average expect Comerica Inc (CMA.N), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB.O), KeyCorp (KEY.N), Regions Financial Corp (RF.N), SunTrust Banks Inc (STI.N) and Zions Bancorp (ZION.O) to lose money in every quarter this year, Reuters Estimates said.

And yet bank shares have rallied, gaining roughly 50 percent since March 6, though they have still lost roughly three-quarters of their value over the past two years.

"The rally in bank stocks got way ahead of itself," said Michael Mullaney, who helps invest $9 billion at Fiduciary Trust Co in Boston. "We would expect a pullback as earnings announcements come in, pretty morose for the most part."

More at Link...

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


There is more mention of that stress test. Too bad it hasnt come out because Obama delayed it.

I'm pretty sure it has some horrible information on it that will take a huge chunk out of the already low investor confidence.

reply to post by irishchic


I had figured out that is nothing but a scam, been played by the mortgage companies, for one side they are abiding by the wishes of the government to help the home owners but is loopholes so they are creating this you don't qualify I am sorry .

Is not isolated to your friend, my husband can not get a rate under 7 on our home, a friend of him can not get anything even closes to 4.6 right now.

Every body that has tried to get into the low rate deal is been turned down.

Is nothing but a scam people.

reply to post by Vitchilo


Don't get confused the good numbers on consumer spending in this months are due mostly on the good ole tax refunds that some are lucky enough to enjoy, as soon the money is gone the numbers will plunge again.

Remember is many factors behind why right now sales may be better for the month of March, April and even may.

reply to post by marg6043


Once the "holiday" season officially ends it is going to dive like mad. It always has. But in the current economic times it is going to be much worse due to the level of unemployment and people flat out not spending as much.
I think perhaps this may be one of the reasons why they are trying to hold off on any more announcements of bad banks and what ever else they have hidden right now. They need to make sure that as many companies as possible can try and get some income before the season ends.

Can anyone say, "Insolvent"?

What a Black Hole...

Bank of America Needs to Raise $36.6 Billion in Capital, Oppenheimer Says
www.bloomberg.com...

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank, needs to raise $36.6 billion in equity to bring capital ratios in line with its peers, according to Oppenheimer & Co.

With investors reluctant to commit new funds to lenders, Bank of America is more likely to raise capital by converting preferred stock to common, or issuing 5.2 billion shares through the Treasury Department’s Capital Assistance Plan, said analyst Chris Kotowski in a report to clients today. Under the Treasury program, Bank of America may issue shares for $6.24 each, the report said.

Bank of America has already accepted two rounds of taxpayer support totaling $163 billion that included preferred stock purchases and asset guarantees. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis has said the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company will rebound from a fourth-quarter loss without more government assistance.

“It is perhaps unusual to model highly dilutive equity raises into earnings forecasts, but we believe that in the current environment, until credit quality stabilizes and capital requirements are more precisely known, it is the prudent thing to do,” Kotowski wrote.

Oppenheimer cut quarterly earnings estimates for Bank of America to 2 cents a share from 10 cents because of expected higher losses on credit cards and other loans. Among New York- based banks, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is likely to earn 16 cents a share, down from 29 cents, while Morgan Stanley may post a 59- cent loss, compared with a previous estimate of a 37-cent profit, Kotowski said in the report. He raised the profit estimate for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to $1.29 from 99 cents.

Doubling Bank of America’s ratio of tangible equity capital as a percentage of risk-weighted assets to about 6 percent would put the company in line with the 6.3 percent average of the 25 largest U.S. banks, Kotowski said.

BTW: How ya like my new avatar?

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Tentickles


Will let you know for sure!
The Alamo is a bold move,those DOA (Daughters of the Alamo,caretakers and socialites) are a tough bunch who don't mess around,LOL! SO glad it's going to be very public,there had mentioned several bars and such due to it being "Fiesta" (a 10 day celebration of again,society,old-money and perceived rank...much like Mardi Gras but with more of a Hispanic flair...) and it will no doubt started to get packed downtown.
I will U2U my plans as it gets closer.

And Hx3...OMG...you are so freakin' adorable,LOLROF!!!
I love the new avatar!!! You are a Super-Hero of sorts!!!

Tried to find one of me in a scanty bunny-costume but the one I have is like 15 years old and yes,it's adorable but not accurate and God knows we are dealing with enough "lies" out there...the one posted is current and there no mis-representin' here on this thread,HAHAHA!

Here we go again,they can't AFFORD to take over more banks! Good chart too:

FDIC Insurance Commitments 34% Higher Than Reported:

optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com...




[edit on 8-4-2009 by irishchic]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


eh, didn't BoA say they were profitable? I'm confused. Maybe I don't understand what profitable means..

reply to post by Avarus
Amazing ain't it???

Get some AIG infusions, TARP, "float" a "leaked" "memo" and yer profitable!!!

I think at this point everyone is so burned out by all this carp, their just tuning it out, either that are plain "mentally challenged"...

===
Dow Jones Industrial Average 7,867.21 1:15pm ET Up 77.65 (1.00%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 826.41 1:15pm ET Up 10.86 (1.33%)
NASDAQ Composite 1,590.60 1:15pm ET Up 28.99 (1.86%)
===
Bidders offer $2.42 for every dollar in notes sold
Indirect bidders buy 38.5% of 3-year Treasurys (Helicopter Ben)
Treasury sells $35 billion in 3-year notes at 1.385%

See...


Moynihan May Succeed BofA's Lewis: Report
www.cnbc.com...

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Is that Timmy the Tax Cheat as your avatar head?

That memo business is the only reason the stock market rebounded to it's current levels.

Mish points out...

Bernanke's Deflation Preventing Scorecard

In case no one is keeping track, Bernanke has now fired every bullet from his 2002 “helicopter drop” speech Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here.

Bernanke's Scorecard

Here is Bernanke’s roadmap, and a “point-by-point” list from that speech.

1. Reduce nominal interest rate to zero. Check. That didn’t work...
2. Increase the number of dollars in circulation, or credibly threaten to do so. Check. That didn’t work...
3. Expand the scale of asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets it buys. Check & check. That didn’t work...
4. Make low-interest-rate loans to banks. Check. That didn’t work...
5. Cooperate with fiscal authorities to inject more money. Check. That didn’t work...
6. Lower rates further out along the Treasury term structure. Check. That didn’t work...
7. Commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Check. That didn’t work...
8. Begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (bonds maturing within the next two years); enforce interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities at prices consistent with the targeted yields. Check, and check. That didn’t work...
9. If that proves insufficient, cap yields of Treasury securities at still longer maturities, say three to six years. Check (they’re buying out to 7 years right now.) That didn’t work...
10. Use its existing authority to operate in the markets for agency debt. Check (in fact, they “own” the agency debt market!) That didn’t work...
11. Influence yields on privately issued securities. (Note: the Fed used to be restricted in doing that, but not anymore.) Check. That didn’t work...
12. Offer fixed-term loans to banks at low or zero interest, with a wide range of private assets deemed eligible as collateral (…Well, I’m still waiting for them to accept bellybutton lint & Beanie Babies, but I’m sure my patience will be rewarded. Besides their “mark-to-maturity” offers will be more than enticing!) Anyway… Check. That didn’t work...
13. Buy foreign government debt (and although Ben didn’t specifically mention it, let’s not forget those dollar swaps with foreign nations.) Check. That didn’t work...

Bernanke has failed. "It" has happened. The proof is irrefutable as detailed in Humpty Dumpty On Inflation and Fiat World Mathematical Model.

What now Ben? More of the same stuff that failed miserably before, only on a grander scale?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...

So, what do they do? Start back at square one, and see if something will work the second time through? Wait it out, and see if one of their attempts has a delayed response, and turns out to work afterall? Make up something on the fly? Start a war? Literally climb into a helicopter and start dropping money into neighborhoods?



[edit on 8-4-2009 by theWCH]

reply to post by Tentickles
Yeah...Mr Super Skittles...Tiny Tim da Tax Cheat
Special huh?

Lawmakers Seek to Calm TARP Spending Worries
www.cnbc.com...

Recession to Ease, but Industry Set to Crumble
www.cnbc.com...

Muni Bonds May Face Downgrade
www.cnbc.com...

Moody’s Investors Service assigned a negative outlook to the creditworthiness of all local governments in the United States, the agency said Tuesday, the first time it had ever issued such a blanket report on municipalities.

The report signaled how severely the economic downturn was affecting towns, counties and school districts across the nation.

While Moody’s regularly reports on the financial strength of various sectors of private industry, its analysts have in the past considered America’s tens of thousands of towns and local authorities too diverse for generalizations.

The report suggests that the ratings of many governments could be downgraded in the coming months, something that would make it more expensive for them to borrow money to finance their operations.

In the most extreme cases, municipalities might default on some of their obligations, as Jefferson County, Ala., has been threatening to do for a number of months.

More at Link...

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by theWCH
Star 4 U!

Nice bashin'!!!

And all so true...think that's why he said he was so afraid of deflation...

Title of Article should of read, "Helicopter Bens Dirty "Bakers" Dozen"

Lucky # 13???

[edit on 4/8/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963



I found that "recession to ease" article to be optimistic at best. The reality of the situation doesn't reflect the new that has been being reported. Seems misdirection is being practiced. Can you even imagine how bad things will get this coming Holiday season when retailers need those higher sales to balance out the annuals? Can't buy toys for Christmas with food stamps.



GM Pensions May Be ‘Garbage’ With $16 Billion at Risk

www.bloomberg.com...

no real surpsise there but could affect a whole lot of people.