The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by Vitchilo


Okay - First I recommend reading the pdf

Derivatives are basically the Credit exposure that the bank has.

reserves vs lending. Goldman Sachs is leveraged a tad over 1000:1, so for every $1 in reserves they have lent $1000.

Since defaults on credit loans are the talk of the town, this means that they have the biggest risk out there and the implosion that they *could* face will make the past bailouts look like pennies in a wishing well

reply to post by redhatty


We should thank for that Bernanke and Geihner's printing presses that are burning over night to keep the financial afloat.

Devaluation of the dollar.

reply to post by redhatty
Climbing pretty fast now...1.67% now...1.74%...1.75%...

WTH?!?



[edit on 3/31/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


and still ramping

Japanese Yen 99.1200 0.0101 +1.6800


Yen as the new carry trade currency????

reply to post by redhatty


Isn't that was is supposed to be heading our way next the burst of the credit card defaults?

What can anybody expect when the unemployment is at a new 25 year high.

reply to post by marg6043


Derivatives are not JUST Credit Cards, it's loans for commercial real estate, loans for businesses, of course mortgage loans, trade credit, etc.

ANYTHING that is 'credit forward' is included in Derivatives

But yes, CC default is coming next

reply to post by redhatty


So then this means that the numbers keep growing everyday now, meaning that the government has been trying very hard to hide how much all this financial bailing is going to cost to the tax payer and how much will increase the debt.

If now we stood at 10 trillion dollars of debt been added this in one year with 6 trillions just in the first two months of this year, now the amount was raised to 12. some trillions and the derivative debt was up to 50 trillions and some perhaps in the US alone, the 200 trillion means world wide?

This numbers are getting to hard to understand, how much can US afford of all this debt?

reply to post by Vitchilo

This is ridiculous. Fortis reported a 28 billions EURO loss, still their shares are up and so are the shares of all the others banks... RIDICULOUS.

Reminds me so much of this thread.

The more you lose, the better your prospects...

Maybe we should replace capitalism with an economy based entirely on bailouts.

reply to post by pause4thought
Not much action there since I found our inside "crew"...

Found them a nice office though...natural air conditioning...secluded...



USD/JPY still on the move...up 1.79% at one time...

Originally posted by marg6043
If now we stood at 10 trillion dollars of debt been added this in one year with 6 trillions just in the first two months of this year, now the amount was raised to 12. some trillions and the derivative debt was up to 50 trillions and some perhaps in the US alone, the 200 trillion means world wide?

This numbers are getting to hard to understand, how much can US afford of all this debt?

Government debt is not even part of the picture from the PDF

From the PDF:

Derivatives activity in the U.S. banking system is dominated by a small group of large financial institutions. Five large commercial banks represent 96% of the total industry notional amount and 81% of industry net current
credit exposure.

Regardless of where the money is lent it is the US bank that is the one exposed, so it really matters not in this case whether it is world wide or just in the US, since it is a US bank(s) that will bear the brunt of defaults.

Since included in the derivatives is also a substantial amount of credit default swaps (CDS) this means that 2 parties bear the brunt in the event of defaults - this is exactly the problem that "supposedly" cause the original bailout to happen.

But instead of CDS exposure being reduced since the bailout, it has increased.

US Commercial banks at the end of 2008 had a $200 TRILLION derivatives exposure. And that is ONLY the stuff that is on the books, there is still the off-book accounting that we have literally no clue about.

There is basically NO WAY for exposure to ever be settled in this economic climate. Sooner or later, that reality is going to be "in your face" to other countries. When that happens, as I said, We are SCROOMED.

reply to post by marg6043


In October or so (when they were first trying to secure the Automaker "loans") the hot news spreading through Detroit was the revelation that "The Big Three" get more federal R&D funding than NASA.

Remember, GM builds those Hummers that are being blown up in Iraq. Ever wonder what they might be working on and NOT letting on about?

We really cannot underestimate the significance of a strong domestic auto industry during times of war. Right now we have two wars going on.

This is why it would be a "disaster" to let them fail. These guys are every bit as integral to the black-budget world as the aerospace firms.


[edit on 31-3-2009 by theWCH]

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Secluded just doesn't meet the bill. We're sitting back till the whole operation goes underground.

FTSE 100 3926.14 up 163.23 4.34% !

Source

reply to post by redhatty


Thanks Redhatty, now I got the picture I guess I was too taken by so many figures coming from everywhere.

You are right is not way in the world that our printing presses can afford to print so much.

reply to post by theWCH


Thanks I see where the "agenda" here may be coming from. I never had put one on one together before.

Still I was looking at the privacy angle of it, after all it was the GM the first ones to add the black boxes on new vehicles and also the first ones to add GPS systems on their cars.

That was the angle I was looking at.

reply to post by marg6043


That could well be a valid angle, also.

In 10 years of studying "black" projects, I've learned that you just shouldn't trust the people who make their career in that world.

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE 7,604.38 12:28pm ET 82.36 (1.09%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 796.24 12:28pm ET 8.71 (1.11%)
NASDAQ Composite 1,524.27 12:28pm ET 22.47 (1.50%)
===
Russia 689.63 6.72 0.98% 03/31
London 3926.14 163.23 4.34% 17:12
Paris 2807.34 88.00 3.24% 18:01
Frankfurt 4084.76 95.53 2.40% 18:01
Turkey 25764.83 621.22 2.47% 17:07
Hungary 11071.85 178.47 1.64% 16:36
Austria 1696.62 76.08 4.70% 17:36
Poland 24036.12 56.04 0.23% 16:40
Czech 749.70 4.60 0.62% 17:40
Sweden 653.04 19.96 3.15% 17:45
Finland 4601.24 99.70 2.21% 18:31
Norway 203.72 4.96 2.50% 17:25
Greece 1684.37 54.69 3.36% 17:19
Italy 12855.00 435.00 3.50% 17:51
Luxembourg 883.36 12.78 1.47% 17:40
Netherlands 216.98 5.87 2.78% 18:02
Iceland 217.44 2.12 0.99% 16:40
Denmark 228.36 0.46 0.20% 17:21
Switzerland 4927.43 181.67 3.83% 17:31
Spain 820.67 22.54 2.82% 17:49
Portugal 2081.83 43.86 2.15% 17:08
Ireland 2193.95 64.60 3.03% 17:00
Israel 728.35 6.83 0.95% 15:29
Egypt 400.65 -4.51 -1.11% 14:29
S. Africa 18441.62 433.12 2.40% 17:00
Morocco 22041.95 -123.48 -0.56% 03/30
Jordan 2708.15 -1.62 -0.06% 13:59
UAE Dubai 1568.46 -9.93 -0.63% 13:58

Well for some reason, I think the Chrysler/Fiat-Opel deal is not going to happen,

From BBTV: FIAT Credit Rating Cut to Junk by S&P

OOOOooopppppsss

Japan's New Stimulus PLan

If you missed it, Dylan Ratigan was on the Radio

DEUTSCHE BANK SECURITIES Assigned 8,500 gold contracts If I am interpreting this correctly, DB wants delivery of $820 million worth of gold. That would be about 29% of registered (available for delivery) COMEX gold. What are they getting ready for???

Oh yeah and GM & Ford guarantee loan payments, courtesy of the US taxpayer, of course

[edit on 3/31/09 by redhatty]

UK manufacturing failures seen up 52 pct in 2009
www.reuters.com...

Japan's Recession Deepens as Jobless Rate Jumps to 3-Year High, Wages Fall
www.bloomberg.com...

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s recession deepened as the unemployment rate surged to a three-year high, wages fell and job openings plunged at the fastest pace in three decades.

The jobless rate rose to 4.4 percent last month from 4.1 percent in January, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo. The ratio of jobs available to each applicant tumbled to 0.59 from 0.67, the biggest drop since 1974, the Labor Ministry said.

Companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to NEC Corp. are firing thousands of workers, increasing pressure on the government to give more assistance to the nation’s jobless, most of whom don’t receive benefits. Prime Minister Taro Aso said the government plans to unveil a stimulus package in mid-April that will include aid for households.

“We don’t think this is the ceiling for the unemployment rate,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo, who expects it to reach a record 5.7 percent this year. “Manufacturers are going to keep cutting costs by suppressing employment.”

Wages slid 2.7 percent as a record slump in exports forced manufacturers to slash production and overtime. Household spending fell 3.5 percent, a 12th monthly decline, indicating domestic demand is unlikely to make up for the collapse in exports. Purchases by consumers account for more than half of the economy.

Japanese Corporate Bond Risk Jumps as Jobless Rate Climbs to a 3-Year High
www.bloomberg.com...

Australian Central Bank Abandons Growth Forecast, Says Recession Is Likely
www.bloomberg.com...

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s economy will probably contract this year for the first time in almost two decades amid slumping global demand for exports, central bank Deputy Governor Ric Battellino said.

“There are limits on how much we can insulate ourselves from what is happening abroad, and therefore there are probably still some difficult times ahead,” Battellino told a conference in Brisbane today. Gross domestic product is “likely to fall in 2009,” he said. In February, the bank tipped 0.5 percent growth.

More at Links...

Dynamic Decisions Hedge Fund May Be Placed Under Protection of Liquidator
www.bloomberg.com...

Hungary's Debt Rating Lowered by Moody's in Second Downgrade in Two Days
www.bloomberg.com...

Mexico Ready to Take IMF Credit Line of Up to $40 Billion, Calderon Says
www.bloomberg.com...

Peru Stocks Go to First From Worst in Latin America on Copper, Zinc, Gold
www.bloomberg.com...

Ukraine Capital Controls Spook Investors as Kazakhstan Threatens Exporters
www.bloomberg.com...

[edit on 3/31/2009 by Hx3_1963]

DJ INDUSTR AVERAGE 7,659.17 1:29pm ET 137.15 (1.82%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 801.96 1:29pm ET 14.43 (1.83%)
NASDAQ Composite 1,537.08 1:29pm ET 35.28 (2.35%)
===
Gold $922.37
Oil $48.50

Zombie banking
Commentary: Banks could write up dead assets under Frank plan
www.marketwatch.com...

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Mark-to-market accounting may be dead on Wall Street.
And dead assets may soon have new life via write-ups. Call them zombie assets.

Zombie assets at zombie banks could be the reality should Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., get his way. He wants the Securities and Exchange Commission to consider allowing banks to estimate the value of dead assets on their balance sheets.

As part of the deal, Frank is pushing for more transparency from the banks about securities they hold.

Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said Tuesday he plans to meet with the SEC regarding a possible rule change. See full story.

The term zombie refers to a banking system that is dead, but kept functioning, or undead, through government intervention.

What makes the Frank revision different from other proposed changes to mark-to-market is its retroactive component. Banks have written off hundreds of billions of assets that can't be sold in the market, but may have value because they contain loans that are still performing. In other words, those assets have a value if they are held to maturity.

The danger with any plan to abandon mark-to-market accounting is that the banks will mark up assets that really don't have value. Even if they accurately assess values, investors may become skeptical about the value of all assets. Banks haven't exactly burnished confidence by writing down $1 trillion during the last 18 months.

Some estimate Citigroup Inc. could see a 20% increase in profits in the future and could erase some past losses.

If the accounting changes come to pass, we can call them zombie profits.

Societe Generale Sees Further Asset Writedowns in First Quarter on Indices
www.bloomberg.com...

[edit on 3/31/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Treasury Buyback today:

Permanent OMOs: Agency
Fed purchases $3.223 billion in agency coupons

The current program to purchase direct obligations from housing-related GSEs is intended to reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for the purchase of homes.

Operation 1 - RESULTS
Operation Date: 03/31/2009

Operation Type: Outright Agency Coupon Purchase

Release Time: 10:30 AM

Close Time: 11:00 AM

Settlement Date: 04/01/2009

Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $3,223

Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $7,400

Inclusions:

Security Description Par Amt Accepted ($)
FNMA 04.375 10/15/15 0
FHLMC 04.750 11/17/15 0
FHLMC 04.750 01/19/16 267,000,000
FNMA 05.000 03/15/16 472,000,000
FHLMC 05.250 04/18/16 337,000,000
FHLB 05.375 05/18/16 317,000,000
FNMA 05.375 07/15/16 39,000,000
FHLMC 05.500 07/18/16 268,000,000
FNMA 05.250 09/15/16 222,000,000
FHLMC 05.125 10/18/16 0
FNMA 04.875 12/15/16 275,000,000
FHLB 04.750 12/16/16 0
FNMA 05.000 02/13/17 129,000,000
FHLMC 05.000 02/16/17 225,000,000
FHLMC 05.000 04/18/17 309,000,000
FNMA 05.000 05/11/17 79,000,000
FHLB 04.875 05/17/17 126,000,000
FHLMC 05.500 08/23/17 20,000,000
FHLB 05.000 11/17/17 0
FHLMC 04.875 06/13/18 99,000,000
FNMA 06.250 05/15/29 0
FNMA 07.125 01/15/30 6,000,000
FNMA 07.250 05/15/30 13,000,000
FNMA 06.625 11/15/30 20,000,000
FHLMC 06.750 03/15/31 0
FHLMC 06.250 07/15/32 0

In the above, the letter "C" following security description denotes that the security is callable.

source

another round of buying the long end - this will not end well