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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:09 AM
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Treasury Premium Triples for U.S.’s Newest Bonds


Even in the world’s safest debt market, investors are paying triple the average premium for the easiest-to-sell securities as the 19-month credit-market freeze shows few signs of ending.

Buyers requiring only the newest, most-traded 10-year Treasuries are giving up about 0.4 percentage point of yield compared with older debt of similar maturity, according to Barclays Capital Inc., one of 16 primary dealers required to bid at government debt sales. Before the subprime mortgage crisis began in August 2007, the gap was about 0.13 percentage point.

Treasuries already lost 2.85 percent this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data, as the government accelerated bond sales to finance a federal budget deficit that President Barack Obama’s administration forecasts may expand to $1.75 trillion. Sacrificing returns for so-called benchmark bonds shows how skittish investors remain as financial markets deteriorate in the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

“It’s a pretty telling sign that things are not back to normal,” said Wan-Chong Kung, who helps manage $76 billion in fixed income at FAF Advisors in Minneapolis, the asset- management arm of U.S. Bancorp.

For investors who don’t need benchmark Treasuries, the older off-the-run securities, as they’re known to traders, are bargains, according to Kung.


Long article, see full story at link


New issues are being bought, but older ones aren't - Does this mean that IF the US gov't were to selectively default, they'd start with the oldest issues?




posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:14 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 
I would guess they'd try to...to stem losses, but, I don't think the holders would be to agreeable...


This is a good subject to look into further...hhhmmm...

steady as she goes...

S&P 500 -5.90 748.70 3/16 2:00am
Fair Value 753.29 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -4.59

NASDAQ -5.50 1162.50 3/15 10:32pm
Fair Value 1169.50 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -7.00

Dow Jones -43.00 7136.00 3/16 1:22am

[edit on 3/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:20 AM
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John Hancock Value Fund invested $46 Million Friday into Citi

Now that could be a telling indicator boys and girls!


www.mffais.com...



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:29 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
Multi-Cap Value 1.08 % 2009-03-12 2,118,900 $3,771,642 $233,079 6.58 % Sold Some -886,300 -29.49 % $-97,493

Pacific Region 4.16 % 2009-03-11 2,626,269 $4,674,759 $630,305 15.58 % Sold Some -3,563,914 -57.57 % $-855,339

ECT ECT ECT...need to look through the WHOLE page...hhhmmm




posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:29 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
John Hancock Value Fund invested $46 Million Friday into Citi

Now that could be a telling indicator boys and girls!


www.mffais.com...


They manage 38.8 Billion. What point are you trying to make? Them throwing 46 million to Citi for a positive news story is like me saying Big Red gum must be great because I just bought a pack.



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:33 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
John Hancock Value Fund invested $46 Million Friday into Citi

Now that could be a telling indicator boys and girls!


www.mffais.com...


Maybe, I think a more telling indicator though is the 80+ firms that sold ALL of their Citi holdings and the 100+ firms that sold some (none of them unsubstantial sells)



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:36 AM
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Originally posted by elston

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
John Hancock Value Fund invested $46 Million Friday into Citi

Now that could be a telling indicator boys and girls!


www.mffais.com...


They manage 38.8 Billion. What point are you trying to make? Them throwing 46 million to Citi for a positive news story is like me saying Big Red gum must be great because I just bought a pack.


Yeah, if there were only 1000 purchasers of Big Red, your logic is flawed

[edit on 16-3-2009 by GreenBicMan]



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:37 AM
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Originally posted by redhatty

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
John Hancock Value Fund invested $46 Million Friday into Citi

Now that could be a telling indicator boys and girls!


www.mffais.com...


Maybe, I think a more telling indicator though is the 80+ firms that sold ALL of their Citi holdings and the 100+ firms that sold some (none of them unsubstantial sells)


True, I am just saying though, to start a position there is good indicator.. looks like funds have been buying lately



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:39 AM
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reply to post by Hx3_1963
 


It is quite an interesting page isnt it?

BTW - I used to live in Stevensville, do you know where that is?



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:43 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
True, I am just saying though, to start a position there is good indicator.. looks like funds have been buying lately


FUNDS?? Some, true:

Funds buying shares: 449

Funds selling shares: 871

Reduced Existing: 555

Liquidated: 316

Buying %: 32.25 %

Selling %: 62.57 %

That's almost double the amount of sells vs the # of buys even with 130 firms buying as new holders

Plus if you look there are 1678 firms holding C right now and 555 of them are reducing their position in C, that's pretty close to a 3rd of the holders dumping the stock

I really feel that those indicators are much stronger than a new holding by hancock



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:44 AM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
Yep...west of me...

S&P 500 -5.70 748.90 3/16 2:23am
Fair Value 753.29 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -4.39

NASDAQ -5.50 1162.50 3/15 10:32pm
Fair Value 1169.50 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -7.00

Dow Jones -44.00 7135.00 3/16 2:24am
---
Gold $925.76
---
Shanghai Composite 2,145.54 2:27AM ET -16.70 (-0.78%)
BSE 30 8,739.23 2:33AM ET -17.38 (-0.20%)
Jakarta Composite 1,327.41 2:43AM ET -0.03 (0.00%)
Nikkei 225 7,704.15 2:00AM ET 134.87 (1.78%)
Straits Times 1,561.35 2:43AM ET -16.17 (-1.03%)

looks like nikkei had it's own thing going on tonite...



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:45 AM
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reply to post by redhatty
 


I would imagine they would be taking profits along the way.. it has increased quite a bit the last few days..

I think you make a good point though



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:47 AM
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reply to post by Hx3_1963
 


Nice, I actually used to be in "lincoln township".. but yeah, beautiful area



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:52 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by redhatty
 


I would imagine they would be taking profits along the way.. it has increased quite a bit the last few days..

I think you make a good point though


Hancock could also be buying for no other reason than to secure a place in the new TALF program.

In that program, even if they lose, the .gov will backstop the losses, so it would be a win-win situation for Hancock



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 01:54 AM
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Originally posted by redhatty

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by redhatty
 


I would imagine they would be taking profits along the way.. it has increased quite a bit the last few days..

I think you make a good point though


Hancock could also be buying for no other reason than to secure a place in the new TALF program.

In that program, even if they lose, the .gov will backstop the losses, so it would be a win-win situation for Hancock


I'll partake in this program please.. Why wouldnt everyone else just jump on this bandwagon then do you think?



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 02:03 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I'll partake in this program please.. Why wouldnt everyone else just jump on this bandwagon then do you think?


In the 1st place, you have to be an investment fund to participate, then, iirc, you have a "minimum" buy in - starting at $1MM

So a firm would have to be fluid enough in todays economic storm to risk $1MM that they cannot touch for 3 years (while it is locked out)

I don't think there are as many firms that can qualify today as there were a few years ago.

And we sure don't want a Madoff or Stanford firm buying in to this now do we?



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 02:05 AM
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Originally posted by redhatty

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I'll partake in this program please.. Why wouldnt everyone else just jump on this bandwagon then do you think?


In the 1st place, you have to be an investment fund to participate, then, iirc, you have a "minimum" buy in - starting at $1MM

So a firm would have to be fluid enough in todays economic storm to risk $1MM that they cannot touch for 3 years (while it is locked out)

I don't think there are as many firms that can qualify today as there were a few years ago.

And we sure don't want a Madoff or Stanford firm buying in to this now do we?


But if you cant lose..

You havent heard of the hottest new investment firm GreenBicMan Funds? So hot right now lol



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 02:10 AM
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US - Empire State Mfg Survey (Mar, 2009) 8:30 AM Mar, 2009

US - Treasury International Capital (Jan, 2009) 9:00 AM Jan, 2009

US - Industrial Production (Feb, 2009) 9:15 AM Feb, 2009

US - 4-Week Bill Announcement () 11:00 AM

US - Housing Market Index (Mar, 2009) 1:00 PM Mar, 2009

US - 3-Month Bill Auction () 1:00 PM

US - 6-Month Bill Auction () 1:00 PM

US - Equity Settlements (3-20-09) 8:00 PM 3-20-09


Couple of announcements that could put a crimp in things...

...and short term auctions...see how that goes...

[edit on 3/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 02:11 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
But if you cant lose..

You havent heard of the hottest new investment firm GreenBicMan Funds? So hot right now lol


Oh you can always lose. Like if the US is declared insolvent within 3 yrs...

And if it was only so easy... to create an investment firm, just by declaring yourself to be one


I posted this earlier, but this is a basic recap of how this "opportunity" works

Use the new US Governments TALF program to purchase AAA rated Asset Backed Securities (ABS).

TALF program provides up to 20:1 leverage for 3 years.

Current fixed rate financing rate will be around 3% while the current yield on the securities is 4.5% to 5%.

Leverage allows for annual returns of 15% to 20%.

Fund I will make monthly distributions of current income minus expenses.

Fund I will require a 3 year lock out of principal due to use of leverage.

TALF loans will have a term of up to3 years, be non-recourse to the borrower, and will be fullysecured by eligible ABS.

In event of default, the ABS collateral is transferred to an Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and the first $20 billion in losses will be absorbed by the treasury via TARP funds.

Underlying credit exposures initially must be auto loans, student loans, credit card loans, or small business loans fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the U.S. Small Business Loan Administration.

Any U.S. company that owns eligible collateral, may borrow from the TALF, provided the company maintains an account relationship with a primary dealer.

A company can borrow from the TALF twice a month, one fixed-rate and one floating-rate loan each.



posted on Mar, 16 2009 @ 02:12 AM
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reply to post by Hx3_1963
 


Isn't this also OPEX week???

That always has an effect



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