The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Interesting info on unemployment and the stock market -

Monday, September 08, 2008
Unemployment Lags Stock Market Returns

A picture is worth a thousand words and the below chart fits that mantra. As Argus Research notes in the chart, courtesy of Charles Schwab & Co. (SCHW), the unemployment rate is often referred to as a lagging economic indicator. As such, it tends to peak after the market has already begun to recover.
The Fannie/Freddie bailout may be the event that puts a bottom into this market.

Originally posted by TH3ON3
reply to post by redhatty

 

Yes but don't you mean the AAA rated that should really be BBB- rated?

Did anyone happen to catch the CNBC program on tonight called "House Of Cards?"

It was a shocking expose of just how we got into this mess, but it focused on mainly the housing mortgage bust.

What about the credit crisis forming even now by those who aren't able to refinance their homes any longer because of the falling values. Most have already maxed out their cards and combined with the other troubles it is a very bad indication of things to come.

That is the self perpetuating part that has yet to raise it's ugly head.

I still think we will rally in the markets until the final shoe on this eight legged octopus falls, which will be in the fall just after the 3rd quarter retail
reports and unemployment info comes back so negative.

I cant really argue that, but I believe the last retail sales report was actually positive wasnt it?

Pension Bills to Surge Nationwide

Many state and city governments reeling from financial woes are about to get whacked again, this time by an unforeseen increase in their pension bill thanks to market declines.

In an effort to stave off tax increases, New Jersey lawmakers on Monday will consider a bill that would allow municipalities to defer payment of half their annual pension bill, due April 1, for one year. Those towns, counties and schools that opt to defer would face a higher pension bill for years to come.

Other states and municipalities are facing similarly difficult choices. In Pennsylvania, the state employees and public teachers pension funds both have warned that employer contribution rates could surge seven-fold from about 4% of payroll to 28%, starting in 2012. The Detroit police and fire pension plan might have to double employer contribution rates to 50% of payroll by 2011, according to the fund's outside actuary.

Two of the nation's biggest public pension funds, New York State Common Retirement Fund and the California Public Employees' Retirement System, also have warned state employers to brace for future rate increases.

"It's going to be huge showdown" between taxpayers and public employees, said Susan Mangiero, president of Pension Governance Inc., a consulting and research firm in Trumbull, Conn. "The anger is more acute today when people are feeling economic hardship."

Oh boy... Much more at link to full article

Warning: the following will set off all the alarms on your BS meters...

Summers argued today that the Obama administration has sought to limit the AIG bonuses.

"We are a country of law. There are contracts. The government cannot just abrogate contracts. Every legal step possible to limit those bonuses is being taken by Secretary Geithner and by the Federal Reserve system," Summers said.

"What the Obama administration has done, based on the advice of attorneys, is done everything that it can to, within the law and within the tradition of upholding law that we have in this country, to limit these bonuses. And they have as a result of Secretary Geithner's efforts been scaled back," he said.

Source

So how is the employment contract for AIG execs an enforceable one, yet mortgage contracts by J6P are subject to cramdowns and modifications?

Hattip to sandra @ TF:

They set up this pool and contract in Jan 2008 before they went to the gov't in Aug, but a year after the trouble first started. There is probably plenty of evidence that those that set it up knew TSHTF that year and that is why they did it. If the gov't wanted to, they would certainly have legal recourse, they just don't want to rock the boat or deal with the messy consequences. So, they will just tell the public that a contract is a contract. This is probably fraudulent conveyance of some sort, but I guess if you can show fraud, you would bring on other problems resulting in things like downgrades, etc. which would result in bankruptcy......huge can of worms, but I definitely don't buy their excuse...

[edit on 3/15/09 by redhatty]

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Still plenty of time before market open but...

S&P 500 -4.80 749.80 3/15 11:44pm
Fair Value 753.29 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -3.49

NASDAQ -5.50 1162.50 3/15 10:32pm
Fair Value 1169.50 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -7.00

Dow Jones -39.00 7140.00 3/15 11:44pm
---
Shanghai Composite 2,123.053 11:18PM ET -5.795 (-0.27%)
Jakarta Composite 1,326.82 11:58PM ET -0.62 (-0.05%)
Straits Times 1,561.24 12:01AM ET -16.28 (-1.03%)
Nikkei 225 7,745.24 11:42PM ET 175.96 (2.32%)

Hang Seng up 165 as well.. hopefully this dominoes into Europe and we keep this train running

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Yes and Citi Bank actually "made" money after getting bailed out to the tune of billions.

If you believe everything you hear coming from our government, then I have a bunch of triple AAA rated CDO's I would like to sell you for half price.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Hey I'm with you guy...I just have a bad habit of actually pulling my head out of the sand to take a look around from time to time.

I hope it rallies and keeps on rallying...But I do have to face the facts, and so I'm not going to call this crisis over until I see more than some vague retail reports and monthly "earnings" coming from a nearly failed bank.

Originally posted by TH3ON3
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

Yes and Citi Bank actually "made" money after getting bailed out to the tune of billions.

If you believe everything you hear coming from our government, then I have a bunch of triple AAA rated CDO's I would like to sell you for half price.

Hey man, lets see what they end up reporting for this quarter, it doesnt matter at all what really happened, they posted it - you know thats the game.

If its as good as Im thinking, as i previously stated, I think Citi and BAC are generational buys.

Originally posted by TH3ON3
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

Hey I'm with you guy...I just have a bad habit of actually pulling my head out of the sand to take a look around from time to time.

I hope it rallies and keeps on rallying...But I do have to face the facts, and so I'm not going to call this crisis over until I see more than some vague retail reports and monthly "earnings" coming from a nearly failed bank.

Are you into charting?

reply to post by redhatty


Yes and if you heard the evening news that these bonuses are being given to the same execs responsible for bringing down the firm it really makes your cheeks match your favorite hat color too.



[edit on 15-3-2009 by TH3ON3]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Nope...I just find this subject so interesting now that I understand just how it went down.

I'm a little jealous that I missed the gravy train too...But no, not really, I don't think I could have done what went down as I do have some ethics.

Originally posted by TH3ON3
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

Yes and Citi Bank actually "made" money after getting bailed out to the tune of billions.

If you believe everything you hear coming from our government, then I have a bunch of triple AAA rated CDO's I would like to sell you for half price.

And... you do know about Iraq taking banking lessons from Citibank - right?
Absurd. Could this move be directly responsible in some way to do with Citibank's quick recovery from death?

Iraq takes banking advice from Citibank.

The Washington Independent’s Spencer Ackerman notes that at a press conference in Baghdad on Sunday, U.S. Embassy spokesman Adam Ereli boasted that the Iraqi banking sector is taking advice from Citibank: Beyond education and culture, in the field of economy and services, it’s worth noting that representatives of U.S. banks, JP Morgan and Citibank and others came to Baghdad on January 28th, participated in an international banking conference that explored correspondent banking relations that would deepen commercial ties between Iraq and the international community, business community.

.

thinkprogress.org...

S&P seems to be sliding a bit...as are some Asian Markets...

S&P 500 -6.00 748.60 3/16 0:11am
Fair Value 753.29 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -4.69

NASDAQ -5.50 1162.50 3/15 10:32pm
Fair Value 1169.50 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -7.00

Dow Jones -39.00 7140.00 3/15 11:44pm
---
Shanghai Composite 2,119.659 Mar 15 -9.189 (-0.43%)
Jakarta Composite 1,325.488 12:27AM ET -1.949 (-0.15%)
Straits Times 1,555.97 12:28AM ET -21.55 (-1.37%)
Nikkei 225 7,721.39 12:09AM ET 152.11 (2.01%)
Hang Seng 12,623.27 12:14AM ET 97.47 (0.78%)
---
Gold $925.30

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I cant really argue that, but I believe the last retail sales report was actually positive wasnt it?

Compared to what? The lie of January being good - but it was calculated on a month to month so we were still down - it was 1.6% less down than December, but still down. Feb was still down - just "not as much as forecast" and if you compare to last year - it is WAY DOWN

So declining sales is a positive thing?

Our economy fell 6.2% at the end of 2008, the worst showing in almost 27 years.

January saw that fall "rise" to an overall 4.6% February brought us back down to an overall 4.7% DOWN

How is this a positive thing?

Originally posted by redhatty

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I cant really argue that, but I believe the last retail sales report was actually positive wasnt it?

Compared to what? The lie of January being good - but it was calculated on a month to month so we were still down - it was 1.6% less down than December, but still down. Feb was still down - just "not as much as forecast" and if you compare to last year - it is WAY DOWN

So declining sales is a positive thing?

Our economy fell 6.2% at the end of 2008, the worst showing in almost 27 years.

January saw that fall "rise" to an overall 4.6% February brought us back down to an overall 4.7% DOWN

How is this a positive thing?

Its positive b/c it beat estimates

Originally posted by TH3ON3
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

Nope...I just find this subject so interesting now that I understand just how it went down.

I'm a little jealous that I missed the gravy train too...But no, not really, I don't think I could have done what went down as I do have some ethics.

Hahah, I could ride SKF all day and feel like a million dollars, if its in play its fair game brother

reply to post by redhatty
I think ya hit the nail on the head with that!!!

Just like when they say, "The market went up 5%!!!"

Big deal...if it dropped 10% to begin with, you still only got half it back...

reply to post by GreenBicMan


When I can see what is on BAC & Citi's Off-Balance Sheets then I'll be able to decide if they actually made any money.

Let the .gov revoke ALL 23A's out there and we can see what is on those off balance sheets

Until then, it is a game of hide the leprous sausage, and it's our orifices that it's being hidden in.

EBIT - Earnings BEFORE interest and taxes is NOT the same thing as Net income. Just because they report one side of the books without reporting the full impact of the OTHER side of the books, does not mean what you hear is the truth

But heh - seems Koolaid is cheap and tasty these days, doesn't it?

Originally posted by redhatty
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

EBIT - Earnings BEFORE interest and taxes is NOT the same thing as Net income. Just because they report one side of the books without reporting the full impact of the OTHER side of the books, does not mean what you hear is the truth

Have you read about proposed changes to M2M?

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Its positive b/c it beat estimates

Man you really need to find something other than Koolaid!!!!

It is less down than the estimates, but it's still down - so that's a good thing


That's like saying - I got robbed, but they dropped a $5 on the ground getting away with my losses, so being robbed wasn't a bad thing in the end, I still have $5

WAKE UP

reply to post by redhatty
Kool-Aid????

Ain't that what Jim Jones was pushin'???


and down it goes...

S&P 500 -6.10 748.50 3/16 0:17am
Fair Value 753.29 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -4.79

NASDAQ -5.50 1162.50 3/15 10:32pm
Fair Value 1169.50 3/14 9:45am
Difference* -7.00

Dow Jones -46.00 7133.00 3/16 0:15am
---
Nikkei 225 7,718.72 12:23AM ET 149.44 (1.97%)

Philippines
PSEi - PHILIPPINE SE IDX 1,769.67 -86.43 -4.66% 00:11


[edit on 3/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]