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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 11:20 AM
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reply to post by irishchic
 


Yes is nice to see how our government rewards incompetence and failure, specially when AIG was a private company to begin with.

Now the government owns about 80% percent of it, it should be the government the one putting regulations on what they are able or capable of doing under the economic crisis.

OOOPs what Crisis? our president is telling us now that everything is getting better.




posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 11:23 AM
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reply to post by irishchic
 


Yes that makes me sick about AIG. I stumbled upon some interesting facts about AIG. Look here at about my third post on this thread...
www.abovetopsecret.com...'

or read about it here.www1.aia.com.cn...

AIG has it's roots in China...maybe that explains alot!

Also, if anyone needs a good laugh, I found a one minute you tube video, Sesame Street Does Bernie Madoff. Dont miss the last scene. It is only one minute long...but I love the end!
www.abovetopsecret.com...'



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 11:25 AM
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I seriously choked when I read it:

More here,I find a wealth of solidly researched info within her pages because she explains clearly,here she talks derivatives as they relate to AIG:

emsnews.wordpress.com...



[edit on 15-3-2009 by irishchic]



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 11:29 AM
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reply to post by burntheships
 



It just goes so deep,you are absoultely right!

My continuing concern is that everything including the markets continues to revolve and evolve around this charade.

Will be interesting to see how things open tomorrow with the news being front and center?



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 12:12 PM
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the rally is a result of the Institutional Money Managers/ Fund & Pension managers jockying their portfilios and reallocating positions...

just shuffling holdings to what their forecast models say will be better companies to hold 'next quarter'.... this shuffling is coming as the First Quarter comes to its end & the reporting data gets analysed....
for the bonus reviews the managers expect !


If they are just rearranging their portfolio's then they would be selling as well as buying. This would have a net neutral effect on the markets.

I think the market is rallying because it is clear the worst scenario is not going to play out. Worst scenario being that a major banks fail and the derivatives wipe out almost everything else as well. We are not going to allow the major banks to fail, that is clear. I think even the biggest skeptics would admit itat this point. The cost may be high, but they won't fail. So that wipes out worst case scenario.

Next you have a market that is very undervalued in comparison to the risk free rate of return. Almost 3 times so by this measure. With the 10 year treasury yielding 2.88%, the PE ratio of the markets should be somewhere near 30-35 times earnings. Instead it is at about 10. Simple cash flow looks even better (income + depreciation & net non cash adjustments). These are real companies that make real money and bank real cash.

Mark to market changes will be huge for the financials. Holdings that were valued near zero will then be valued at $.50 to $.60 on the dollar. Billions in write offs will be reversed. This will allow earnings to soar. The truth is that these aren't real earnings, just as the losses they have had to report haven't been real losses either(yep youve been duped). This will also increase their capital ratios significantly, making the goverment money no longer neccesary. Poorlyperforming derivates will also turn around as a result. Policy will end up neutralizing all this toxic crap. Only people that aren't happy with that result are the ones that have been benefitting from it. And those who feel better when other fail.

New rules will have a drastic impact on short selling and accounting. I think the uptick rule is a red herring to cover discussions for real short selling reform that adresses institutional lshorting, lending of shares and independent clearance. There are simply way too many shares short for the ,markets to have any chance to trade at true supply and demand. Most of the shares being traded don't exist. Once they clean it up there will be a whole bunch of buying that needs to be done.

I have always been of the opinion that compaiess were forced to understate their earnings due to nonsensical FASB GAAP accounting rules. I beleived the rules were created not only to limit taxation, but also in order to orchestrate the type of crisis we are now seeing. I also think the actions that were taken and will be taken to correct these accounting inconsistencies, will defeat those who try to destroy us and limit their effect on things going forward.

I think the markets are extremely cheap and the fear is overdone to a huge degree. Things suck but are not near as bad as many here would have you believe. Those that were going to sell probably already have.

As for the discussion on giving investment advice, I think it would be safe to say that if you are positive on the market you would reccomend buying it, and if you were negative then you would not invest in it or you bet against it. Just rememeber that saying the markets going to zero is the same as saying the markets to the moon as to what can be considered investment advice.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 12:41 PM
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reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 



You made my day with this post: thank you for your clarity!

Roubini's Reflections on the Latest Sucker's Rally:

www.calculatedriskblog.com...

He feels it's too early to "call the bottom yet..."


[edit on 15-3-2009 by irishchic]



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 01:27 PM
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reply to post by irishchic
 


Thanks for the link, after reading Professor Roubini analysis it does make sense what is going on with what I call Markets analysis, he put his theory on statistic I base mine on perception.

I know that perception is no a fact but for me is a way to understand and make sense of what is going on.




posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 01:59 PM
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PRICELESS.

thinkprogress.org...

*sorry if this has already been posted... I didn't see it.


Iraq takes banking advice from Citibank.
The Washington Independent’s Spencer Ackerman notes that at a press conference in Baghdad on Sunday, U.S. Embassy spokesman Adam Ereli boasted that the Iraqi banking sector is taking advice from Citibank:


[edit on 15-3-2009 by spinkyboo]



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 02:01 PM
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reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


I just don't believe it. I still say it is all false hope. Especially when we have members in congress like this.

I would like all this to be over with so we can recover, but I just don't see that happening. Maybe if Obama and co. would stop spending money and actually try to pay down our debts I could see it.

The GDP is not going to be as great of a decline this quarter because of all the government spending. As several people have mentioned, the fundamentals haven't changed.

They are going to keep pumping money into these insolvent banks with billions worth of securities to pay for. One of two things are going to happen, China is going to stop lending to us and at that point we will see hyper-inflation, or there won't be any small banks left because the smaller honest banks are not able to sell off the toxic assets because there isn't a market value on them. Then the taxpayer is going to be taxed into oblivion trying to pay that money back. The current tax plan of raising taxes on the rich is not going to work. Everything is going to be priced higher except our wages.

There is cause and effect, and the cause of tax increases is going to be pumping in all this money. The effect of the tax increases is that everybody is going to be poor. You have to look long term in this mess and a one week rally that has been predicted by just about everyone is not a good indicator to say that the worst is over. There are unintended consequences to the actions that we are taking. Those will be higher taxes and lower living wages.

I think this link explains a little better what is happening. I know this crisis really shouldn't be compared to the Great Depression but the comments for the financial people at the time with issuing buy orders and the like is eerily similar. 1927 - 1933 DJI Chart

I just don't see it.

[edit on 15-3-2009 by Hastobemoretolife]



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 02:32 PM
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Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


I just don't believe it. I still say it is all false hope. Especially when we have members in congress like this.

I would like all this to be over with so we can recover, but I just don't see that happening. Maybe if Obama and co. would stop spending money and actually try to pay down our debts I could see it.

The GDP is not going to be as great of a decline this quarter because of all the government spending. As several people have mentioned, the fundamentals haven't changed.

They are going to keep pumping money into these insolvent banks with billions worth of securities to pay for. One of two things are going to happen, China is going to stop lending to us and at that point we will see hyper-inflation, or there won't be any small banks left because the smaller honest banks are not able to sell off the toxic assets because there isn't a market value on them. Then the taxpayer is going to be taxed into oblivion trying to pay that money back. The current tax plan of raising taxes on the rich is not going to work. Everything is going to be priced higher except our wages.

There is cause and effect, and the cause of tax increases is going to be pumping in all this money. The effect of the tax increases is that everybody is going to be poor. You have to look long term in this mess and a one week rally that has been predicted by just about everyone is not a good indicator to say that the worst is over. There are unintended consequences to the actions that we are taking. Those will be higher taxes and lower living wages.

I think this link explains a little better what is happening. I know this crisis really shouldn't be compared to the Great Depression but the comments for the financial people at the time with issuing buy orders and the like is eerily similar. 1927 - 1933 DJI Chart

I just don't see it.

[edit on 15-3-2009 by Hastobemoretolife]


Like these comments, there are also a collection of negative statements saying we will never recover at the end of every decline, although every time we have indeed recovered.

As for your comments on banking they are almost done doing the fix for the banks. The banks all have enough capital for now. Changing mark to market rules will result in them having excess capital. Keeping them from defaulting also cancels out the effects of derivatives giving them even more capital as potential liabilities are reduced. The system needed stability and the goverment has provided it.

There are still things to be worked out no doubt. However we have managed to avert the worse of it. The market had factored in the worse before this rally. This rally is just a positive adjustment to previously over blown fears. On that basis I think it still has much further to go over the next month. If companies can meet already much lower expectations then we rather further from there.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 03:01 PM
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Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife
reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


The GDP is not going to be as great of a decline this quarter because of all the government spending. As several people have mentioned, the fundamentals haven't changed.



GDP is going to look like is "balancing out" because imports are also low, taking in consideration how government manipulates data they will show a balance on the deficit while ignoring that productivity is an all time low.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 03:04 PM
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reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


Is not that we will never recover but given the pass history of our government involvement they are just good a delaying the end results while passing moronic laws.

Right now is big difference, before government will stop spending to balance deficit, this time the motto is spend, and worry later.

That is not good for an economy that the reason is in the crisis it is right now it was because its spending and borrowing practices.

Consumers are over expended and in debt.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 03:18 PM
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reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 


My comment isn't negative it is reality. The CDO/CDS market has an estimated value of a quarter of a quadrillion dollars, that is 250,000,000,000,000 dollars. How much it really is nobody knows.

The fact of the matter is that their only solution of getting out of this mess is to inject capital into these banks. We still have a commercial real estate bubble to go and a credit card bubble.

I never said that we won't recover, we always do. Th truth is that we do not have a liquidity problem we have a debt problem. We have way to much debt. All they are currently doing is transferring the debt from the private sector to the public sector. The public sector being us, the taxpayer.

We are nowhere near the clear in all this. We are just stepping though the threshold. Just because the market is rallying doesn't mean that it is all over. I've noticed investors have a short memory, T-Bills are going up because China is buying our debt. Some companies aren't doing as bad as what they were because they just got stimulus money.

People are jumping on the stock market bandwagon because stocks are very low and their financial advisers are telling them to buy because the financial advisers get paid for every trade they make.

Getting rid of the Mark to Market rule I feel is going to cause even more damage. The banks are then going to be able to do more accounting book trickery. The financial sector is riddled with fraud. That needs to be cleared out, before we see any real recovery.

What is happening is that the brunt of the downturn is being delayed. They are trying to spend our way out of a hole that we spent our way into. We are making complex problems even more complex. All this debt is going to be transferred to the taxpayer at some point.

It has to be because we are the ones that are paying for all these bailouts. This country is being run with short term solutions and not long term solutions. The banks are dead they are zombies and insolvent. All the capital they have is offset by the amount of debt they have and nobody knows how much debt they have because they won't open their books.

Look I would really like for all this to be over but history says differently.

We will probably see the market go rise a little more, but eventually it is all going to come crashing down.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 03:25 PM
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reply to post by marg6043
 





GDP is going to look like is "balancing out" because imports are also low, taking in consideration how government manipulates data they will show a balance on the deficit while ignoring that productivity is an all time low.


That makes more sense. Eventually it is all going to catch up to us. we can't continue this shell game forever. Every Ponzi scheme eventually gets outed. We need long term solutions. Not continue to patch up the Grand Canyon with Band-aids.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 03:48 PM
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reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity
 




I appreciate your critique...

but it leaks like a seive instead of holding water like a pail or bucket.
(i just don't know where to start... probably by just letting the markets
do their thing until the end-of-the-month & end-of-quarter.
And the members will see if your stance is correct...)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


but, about the recent AIG bonuses...after AIG tapped the Treasury for the 3rd time last week (Mar 9-13th) at a total of $173billion.

The newest Bonuses ammounted to a mere $165million,
And Suddenly the leadership in the Obama administration and the
Repubs/Democrats with all their paid staff and interns --->
couldn't Or wouldn't address the 'Bonus' can-of-worms that was going to surface....

Back in Sep-Oct last year ('08) when the 1st bailouts & bonuses
were just about to break into a topic of conversation by the voters....
I already pointed out that all those BearStearns independent brokers
all those newly bailedout Firms having 1,000s of independent financial accountants and security salespeople
who were 'Contracted' to a certain minimum wage-compensation and
guaranteed bonuses
relative to just how much their 'clients' spent for the Firms financial products....

And We can't just go around breaking contracts & contract law !
ergo the Bonuses Stay !!!
So all this hissy-fit stuff is just Posturing by the politicians,
because if brain-injured StUdio seen it coming, then the law degreed
staffs & representatives seen it coming ---but decided to keep their mouthes shut until the public outcry became too deafning

see: news.yahoo.com...
""

Democratic and Republican congressional leaders voiced outrage on Sunday that insurer American International Group, recipient of a $173 billion taxpayer bailout, is paying $165 million in employee bonuses.

But they agreed it was unclear what, if anything, the government can do to recover the bonus money from the insurance giant or cut the bonuses since the contracts seem legally binding.

Lawmakers said, however, that plenty of questions need to be answered and some AIG officials may need to be ousted. They also said legislation may be needed to avoid a repeat of such action and retain public confidence in federal bailouts.


"We are a country of law. There are contracts. The government cannot just abrogate contracts," Summers told ABC's "This Week." Regardless, he said: "Every legal step possible to limit those bonuses is being taken by (Treasury) Secretary Geithner and by the Federal Reserve System."

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said of the bonuses, "This is an outrage," and that the Obama administration needs to do more.


[...]


"We all know that contracts are valid ... but they need to be looked at," McConnell told ABC "This Week."

"Did they (AIG) enter into these contracts knowing full well that ... the taxpayers of the United States were going to be reimbursing their employees? Particularly employees who got them into this mess," McConnell said.[,...]




~?~



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 04:25 PM
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Originally posted by Hastobemoretolife

My comment isn't negative it is reality. The CDO/CDS market has an estimated value of a quarter of a quadrillion dollars, that is 250,000,000,000,000 dollars. How much it really is nobody knows.

The fact of the matter is that their only solution of getting out of this mess is to inject capital into these banks. We still have a commercial real estate bubble to go and a credit card bubble.

I never said that we won't recover, we always do. Th truth is that we do not have a liquidity problem we have a debt problem. We have way to much debt. All they are currently doing is transferring the debt from the private sector to the public sector. The public sector being us, the taxpayer.

We are nowhere near the clear in all this. We are just stepping though the threshold. Just because the market is rallying doesn't mean that it is all over. I

...

What is happening is that the brunt of the downturn is being delayed. They are trying to spend our way out of a hole that we spent our way into. We are making complex problems even more complex. All this debt is going to be transferred to the taxpayer at some point.

It has to be because we are the ones that are paying for all these bailouts. This country is being run with short term solutions and not long term solutions. The banks are dead they are zombies and insolvent. All the capital they have is offset by the amount of debt they have and nobody knows how much debt they have because they won't open their books.

Look I would really like for all this to be over but history says differently.

We will probably see the market go rise a little more, but eventually it is all going to come crashing down.



This is a well thought out succinct evaluation of the current situation. Keeping the game afloat has been the decision rather than disengage and rebuild.

The US, Britain, German, Japan, do not have free hands. They watch and wait to see how the Chinese, Middle East, and other concentrations of non-integrated wealth respond. Do they want to keep the interconnected mechanism running, or will they pull out, watch the Western economy collapse, and move in for the kill.

The Chinese think very long term, even generations. They may be prepared for decades of sacrifice to attain a level of supremacy. But maybe not. They're waiting and watching to see how things play out in the short term, as well.


Mike F



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 04:49 PM
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reply to post by St Udio
 


That is why I feel Udio that the corrupted entities in our government are testing the will of the America people to let themselves be screw up or see how the people react.

Like you said they know exactly what is going on.

But rather than making sure that at least the tax payer dollar is protected after been ripped off the people they are waiting to see what the tax payer will do next.

This is dirty and deceiving is not funny.

People need to keep inundating their moron dirty politicians on and on for them to do something about it.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 04:50 PM
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www.abovetopsecret.com...

If you haven't seen this chart of how much money is actually being printed,it's more than a little shocking.

Unprecedented.

That's why I can't adopt the notion that things WILL recover as they have historically in the past for the markets and financials in general.

It's a not so brave new world with not so nice rules as in the case of the AIG bonuses.

The "dealers" may all wear the same hats but the game has changed substantially.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 05:11 PM
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I used to hate Glenn Beck but I have to say that he is right,

Can somebody explain what in hell the treasury department and The federal Reserve is doing?

Is the banking institutions that worth it? what in the world they are protecting.

Because obviously is not the American tax payer.



posted on Mar, 15 2009 @ 05:15 PM
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So what's the reason the DIJA futures are up 110 points? Is it because AIG is fraudulently spending on bonuses? I'm confused about this whole thing now. If this market is just imaginary, why don't they just set the number to a random integer between 5000-15000 every day. It would make more sense that way...

edit: Never mind, I just refreshed and it dropped to -36. *shrug*

[edit on 3.15.2009 by Avarus]



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