Battleground Virginia and North Carolina

These former red states have Sen McCain worried. Virginia has a changing population that is shifting it purple, and this was noted by Patrick Buchanan in the 2004 election. He made the claim that Pres Bush was going to win it, but the Democrats would possibly take it in 2008.
Sen Obama and his people knew they had a chance and set up camp to make sure to keep Virginia viable. Virginia's 13 electoral votes are very important for Sen Obama's path to the White House. He is doing well in Iowa and New Mexico, and Virginia would offset losing a bigger rust belt state. He is also making Sen McCain spend his money and resources to defend the state. This will be a close one to watch, and I think Sen Obama will pull it off by a small margin.

North Carolina should of been a red state, and ignored by both candidates. Polls show Sen Obama within reach of winning this state, and all he would need is 35% of the white vote. This state has a very large African American vote, and they are energized. Sen Obama is also polling much better among white voters, and that is giving Sen McCain a challenge. Now the McCain campaign has to spend hard earned resources to defend the state. This is a tough call, and I do not know how this one will turn out. Sen McCain has to up his presence here at the risk of states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. We may see North Carolina turn blue this time around.

Obama has, quite belatedly, learned not to ignore the rural vote in the battles for PA and OH, and he would do well to quickly apply that lesson to NC as well. Obama has to hedge his bet against the possibility of his base not turning out enough or the Republican base rising to the occasion, so he really needs to aim higher than 35% of the white vote, just to be safe.

Still, I'd call NC and VA for Obama at this point- there is very little doubt in my mind. The far above average concentration of minorities in those states combined with the economy, and the fact that the Republican candidate has a lukewarm relationship with hardcore evangelicals, essentially strips the Republican base down to Die Hard Hawks and hardcore believers in small government and lassiez faire, against a high-tide of Democratic voter participation.

This election is starting to look like an electoral landslide- nearly 2:1 against McCain in the electoral college is my guess. This might be a defining moment in history. If Obama can pull off that kind of a landslide and then live up to expectations, he could see a Reagan-style re-election landslide, and may convert a few states- effectively establishing another age of political dominance.

If I were a Republican I'd be nervous.

Virginia has changed a lot in the last ten years.
There has been a huge population explosion in NOVA around the DC area.
And these new residents are mostly middle to upper middle class democrats.
I drive around and 8/10 households have Obama signs on their lawn.
The signs of this transition of Virginia to a democrat stronghold have been there over the last few elections. I think Virginia is going to vote democrat for a long time.

When Obama held a rally in Asheville a couple of weeks ago, 15,000 people showed up. This is not a very big city. Some people thought he was wasting his time here, in this part of Appalachia, but a lot of people thought again after that turnout.

Here in western NC is Obama's big challenge. IMO he's got the eastern part pretty much sewed up, between the cities of the "Research Triangle" (Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill) with their liberal population and large number of university students and the eastern coast with its large African American population.

I'm campaigning for Obama here in the western part of the state, and I see a lot that's encouraging. My own county is 60% Republican and only 38% Democrat so it's an uphill battle here, but there has been a much larger than expected turnout for early voting which bodes well for us.

NC hasn't been blue since Jimmy Carter, but even in this rural, predominantly white area it looks like a better than even chance it will turn blue this time around.

reply to post by Sestias


With the Colin Powell endorsement, some of the military, both active and retired may move in Sen Obama's favor. The thinking is it will be small, but when you have a close race, every little bit helps. Sen Obama and his crew are not ignoring the rural areas which was what some of us thought he might do. He needs to do well enough in those areas to carry the state. I don't think the "real Virginia" comment helped the McCain campaign.

Well that does it.. NC is now a blue state. I never thought I would see both Virginia and North Carolina go blue.

reply to post by Massgirl


Virginia was closer than the pundits thought, although the Obama campaign knew it was going to be close. North Carolina was still leaning McCain in the polls. I am glad to see someone finally try to put an end to the red state/blue state myth.

If there is a strong candidate from either party, they can win any state out there. The secret is ground organization, and visiting the state to make them want to vote for the candidate.

Originally posted by kidflash2008

If there is a strong candidate from either party, they can win any state out there. The secret is ground organization, and visiting the state to make them want to vote for the candidate.

That's what made the difference in N.C. Our part of the state (the reddest part) hadn't received any attention from any poitician since George H.W. Bush (41) stopped by briefly at the Apple Festival on his way through the state. Then Hillary arrived last spring, made a number of campaign stops, and her organization was out in full force. Her efforts were appreciated by many people in these mountain counties who feel slighted by both the state government (for grievances that go back to the civil war) and the federal government and it was reflected in votes for Clinton.

During the fall campaign Obama wisely made several appearances here himself (he didn't during the primaries) and the excitement was palpable. The local tv station broadcast an entire rally live, and the newspapers were enthusiastic. Add to that several campaign offices, a strong get-out-the-vote drive and a lot of enthusiastic volunteers and it added up to North Carolina going blue this time around.

Obama didn't win by many votes (last time I heard only about 14,000) but his success is historic.