posted on Oct, 16 2008 @ 08:43 PM
Obama has, quite belatedly, learned not to ignore the rural vote in the battles for PA and OH, and he would do well to quickly apply that lesson to NC
as well. Obama has to hedge his bet against the possibility of his base not turning out enough or the Republican base rising to the occasion, so he
really needs to aim higher than 35% of the white vote, just to be safe.
Still, I'd call NC and VA for Obama at this point- there is very little doubt in my mind. The far above average concentration of minorities in those
states combined with the economy, and the fact that the Republican candidate has a lukewarm relationship with hardcore evangelicals, essentially
strips the Republican base down to Die Hard Hawks and hardcore believers in small government and lassiez faire, against a high-tide of Democratic
This election is starting to look like an electoral landslide- nearly 2:1 against McCain in the electoral college is my guess. This might be a
defining moment in history. If Obama can pull off that kind of a landslide and then live up to expectations, he could see a Reagan-style re-election
landslide, and may convert a few states- effectively establishing another age of political dominance.
If I were a Republican I'd be nervous.