Will China become more democratic by 2020?

My son just showed me an article in the Canada & World section of the Vancouver Sun, today's date, saying "China is expected to become a different society n the next 12 years" page B1. Apparently China would become a democracy by 2020. The article is very interesting, but I wanted to find a link that didn't require a paid subscription, and I did.

here

Zhou Tianyong, an adviser to the Communist Party's Central Committee and one of its most liberal voices, told the Daily Telegraph that "by 2020, China will basically finish its political and institutional reforms".

He added: "We have a 12-year plan to establish a democratic platform. There will be public democratic involvement at all government levels."

Mr Zhou also predicted "extensive public participation in policy-making, such as drawing up new legislation".

Mr Zhou is deputy head of research at the Central Party School, the most important institution for training senior leaders. President Hu Jintao is among its former directors. ...



Mr Zhou added that civil society in China would also play an important role. "There will be many more non-governmental organisations, chambers of commerce, industry associations and other social groups. Religion should also be given a wider platform to play a positive role. We should protect religious freedom," he said.

"People should not follow the traditional mindset," he added. "We should recognise that the government should serve the people and society."

But Mr Zhou did not predict the end of the one-party state, nor the demise of the Communist Party's monopoly of power.

Any transition to democracy is likely to be a slow process. China already has grassroots elections in over 660,000 villages, although these contests are often rigged. However, there are already small signs of change, with larger cities, such as Nanjing and Guangzhou, recently opening more important posts to public competition.

I find this very interesting. What do you think is likely to happen? Is there anyone here who can talk about the new directions China has been taking lately to facilitate such a goal?

[edit on 15-10-2008 by mystiq]

Well for been so vocal Zhou Tianyong may encounter a untimely death, as China is doing quite well with the new emerging elite and the hold they have on centralizing power and wealth.

As this new emerging elite become more powerful they also will squash anybody that will become too dangerous to their control.

No, China will not become democratic any time soon unless the people raises against the government in a bloody and deathly struggle.

According to an article from India, here:

here:www.dnaindia.com...

China already has elections in over 660,000 villages, although these are often rigged.

However, there are already small signs of change, with larger cities, such as Nanjing and Guangzhou.

Its being covered in both hard print and online. This direction is surprising to me, and I think many would like this to be true. This could change some of the directions this world is
going currently. And in some unexpected quarters perhaps.


Here is an article written by a correspondent in Bejing:

here


The report was finished after the 17th Party Congress late last year at which the President, Hu Jintao, promised more extensive democratic and human rights, including more elections for positions within the party.

But the report's impact was quickly overtaken by events including the Tibetan riots, the Sichuan earthquake and the Xinjiang terrorist attacks.

Professor Zhou's decision to speak out - albeit to the Western media - could, analysts say, be a testing of the waters after the Tibetan unrest's chilling effect on debate. Hardline rhetoric re-emerged in the resulting climate of fear; China's head of security, Zhou Yongkang, vowed to use the police, army and courts to defeat enemies of the state.

A Beijing-based political scientist, Russell Leigh Moses, said the party was vigorously debating "whether or not it is possible to have a democratic system in China at this time … whether it is possible at any time".

"What we might be seeing is an opening in the post-Olympic atmosphere but that doesn't mean it's a tidal wave," he said.

"What politics will look like here is not predetermined in any way and that's to the credit, I think, of powerful forces within the Communist Party.

"There are many paths to holding onto power … so in one sense it's no tremendous surprise that these views are being aired because they have the sponsorship of certain people within the party who want to see alternatives being exploring.

reply to post by marg6043

As this new emerging elite become more powerful they also will squash anybody that will become too dangerous to their control.

So they really are going to be just like us.

Democratic, no. Capitalistic, yes. They're already going down that road rather quickly.

I give it on more of a time scale of 50 to 100 years and they will be fully democratic. They are seeing the promise of a capitalist society and with the US and the rest of the western world on the downturn they will remain communist to become the worlds single superpower then as the ruling elite die off the more liberal politicians will take over.

I know. 12 years isn't that long. This change is predicted to really be that noticeable so soon. To tell the truth, I hadn't thought of this possibility until my son forced the paper in my hands. I don't think its going to be 50 years or more. Though 12 may be jumping the gun here a little.

reply to post by zlots331


Well they may have some market woes due to the American recession but they still have plenty of cash for a rainy day and I heard that the new Arab markets are starting to look quite good as they have plenty of liquidity to finance the American bail out over and over again.

As you know China is our biggest and largest lender so if they stop buying the American debt it will not be any money to back up the bail out the government is doing to the fat rats in wall street.

That is why the American government is as much vocal as it used to be to the human rights violations in China and as we know we backed the Olympics and even our corporate President paid a visit to them.

What people do for money, or I should said what corrupted governments do for money.

Here in the Hong Kong herald:

story.hongkongherald.com...

After two weeks of heightened tension between China and Taiwan because of a 3.5 billion pound American arms sale to the island, Zhou said the transition to democracy was "essential for relations with Taiwan and a possible peaceful reunification."

His comments appear to rebuff the widespread belief that Chinese political reform had stalled after the riots in Tibet in March and a security clampdown before the Olympic Games in Beijing.

Instead, Zhou said the government was determined to reform itself, but that there had been some infighting between different departments.

He called for the number of ministries in Beijing to be halved to between 19 and 21 in order to form a "modern government structure".

And here is another clue that this may actually be a carefully planned direction:

here


China’s decision to allow Hong Kong to elect its own chief executive in 2017 and the entire legislature in 2020 is a momentous step forward, both for Hong Kong and for China, although Hong Kong’s pan-democrats do not seem to realize it.

On December 29, the standing committee of the National People’s Congress—China’s parliament—ruled out universal suffrage in 2012 but decided to allow it five years later for election of the chief executive and eight years later for the legislature.

It is unprecedented for the Chinese government to take this step. Although the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution enacted by China’s National People’s Congress in 1990, declared that universal suffrage was the “ultimate aim” for the election of both the chief executive and the legislature, up to now Beijing had no specific timetable for when this would happen....

Evidently, Hong Kong’s chief executive, Donald Tsang, succeeded in convincing the central government that unless the issue was resolved, it would make governance difficult for all future chief executives. Currently, the chief executive is chosen by an election committee of 800 people...

The Basic Law makes it clear that universal suffrage should be attained “in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress”. When the democrats, with their 25 votes in the legislature, rejected an interim reform package for the 2007-08 elections, it became impossible to expect universal suffrage by the very next elections, since then it could not be argued that this was the result of “gradual and orderly progress”.

Even now, although Beijing has endorsed 2017, it is still possible that universal suffrage may be delayed. That is because any model for 2012 must be approved by two-thirds of the legislature, and if there is no agreement, then universal suffrage will be stalled again...

So Hong Kong has its work cut out for it over the next dozen years. There is no time to lose. It is time to stop bickering and get down to the work at hand.

In the meantime, the demand within China itself for greater democracy will grow as Hong Kong moves to universal suffrage. Ultimately, the Chinese Communist Party will have to face a much more challenging task: what to do about democracy on the mainland.

I really think there is some indications here that this is the way its going to go. Come to think of it, I don't even know how the process works for government in this country.

This must be the guy you mention

I just did a quick search for pictures. Pretty sure thats him.

www.cathnews.com...

Dr Zhou also predicted an increased role for civil society as represented by non-government organisations, charities and business and religious groups.

He was a key author of the Party School's Storming the Fortress report, released in February, which warned that China faced social and economic instability if the Communist Party did not reform itself, curb corruption and heed the public's desire for greater democracy.

The report called for systematic liberalisation including greater media and religious freedom by 2020.

Here it talks about greater freedom of media and freedom of religion. I really hope this is the direction that China goes, but that it doesn't do what Russia did when the wall crumbled. The direction I'd like to see happen would be to bring China closer to the spirit at least of the Scandinavian countries with a mixture of free enterprise and social concern.

reply to post by mystiq

this is a great article mystiq! i hope they continue on with this loose plan, and i also feel the best plans are the loosest ones. in a country drenched with propaganda i remain doubtful of the end result. I could see it lacking any REAL democratic powers, with most of it just being a formality, but the people would be so jazzed by the impression of a democratic voice that little resistance would meet it. then again, maybe they have thirsted for this for so long that any attempt to deliver it had better be good, or be met with MUCH resistance. i can't say either way, i wish i was more knowledgeable of political trends to say. i'll be forwarding this to a friend i have on here who always has a very intelligent reply on all things political, he's helped me a few times, i can't wait to see what he thinks, because he usually helps me to see things a little more clearly. But on the surface this looks like a great thing happening!

I find most of Americans believe Chinese government is a evil regime,
and Chinese people hate the government and thirst for American sytle
of democracy.
Thank you for worrying about us, If I were you, I'd like to worry about
the collapse of USA instead of worrying about others

Why do Americans believe a democratic China will do good to USA?
A Democratic China will tolerate Tibet independence?
A Democratic China will tolerate USA interfering in Taiwan inssue?
A Democratic China will tolerate USA's provocation again and again?
no way.
I'm quite sure nationalist will take power in the coming Democratic China.
conflict between China and USA will become more severe than today's.



[edit on 12-11-2008 by gs001]

China is indeed moving towards democracy but it isn't in the interests of the multinational corporations to draw attention to this. The USA and its allies used the Olympics to demonise China over Tibet and to use the issue of Tibet to apply pressure to the Chinese to allow the multinationals greater access to China's markets and resources. The mainstream media, the USA the Tibetan Government in exile and the Dalai Lama have been lying about the situation in Tibet for more than 50 years.

Read the following two articles for further information:

China and America: The Tibet Human Rights PsyOp
www.globalresearch.ca...
"Democratic Imperialism": Tibet, China, and the National Endowment for Democracy
www.globalresearch.ca...

China's recent human rights record although not great is actually far better than the USA's (eg Iraq, Afganistan) and many other countries in the world. The USA has recently been trying to demonise China and the Chinese in the same way that they have demonised muslims. The reality is that the USA is moving away from democracy whilst China is moving towards it.

reply to post by Enigma Publius


I'd be happy to hear what your friend might say. There is so much propaganda, the world around us is a carefully constructed mirage. What interested me was this was published in one of our mainstream newspapers, so it got coverage. It would be highly ironic if, as the US moves ever closer to absolute corporate totalitarianism, China begins to move in another direction.

It would make sense actually to do this right now and push for it in China.

As several countries economies start to go down china then becomes the big loan out country or extends the loans they've already given out making it appear as if they stabilized the countries that were having problems at least to their people that's how it could look.

Then from there they could really start building up to be the next super power of the world off of the money that everyone owes them.

At least if I was in that spot that's what I would attempt to do.

Originally posted by gs001
I find most of Americans believe Chinese government is a evil regime,
and Chinese people hate the government and thirst for American sytle
of democracy.
Thank you for worrying about us, If I were you, I'd like to worry about
the collapse of USA instead of worrying about others

The mindset of many is controlled by our media, not to mention that IQ has been reported to be falling. No one wants to live under totalitarianism, but there are many forms of democracies, not all of them are dog eat dog, winners and losers models. There is a lot of propaganda regarding Tibet. I'm well aware how the average person was treated historically, and have seen the modern comparison of a better standard of living. Its how the average person lives that is the best comparison. To truly judge a nation, you have to look at how the bottom 20% live, and what their conditions are. And then that judgment stands.

reply to post by Darthorious


I would too. And since our nations demonstrate that "democracy" has been abused to resemble a carefully constructed lie, I'm not sure that the moral of the people isn't being taken into consideration as well, since they are beginning to focus on providing consumer products to their citizens. Their economy should continue to rise significantly.

There are a mutitude of changes that have been happening in China over even the past 3 months. I deal with China on a daily basis and know as fact that the minimum wage has doubled in the past three months and also that the farmers now have the freedom of doing as they want (900,000,000 of them). I will have my associate in Shenzen send me the links to these and other happenings and pass on to tis thread.

Chinese people as a whole are very nice and have the best family structures around. They have the day to day frustrations just like us and too are facing economic hardships as the rest of the economic world crumbles.

Vancouver has a huge chinese population and many are still going back to mainland China to work as there is fewer jobs everday here for them.

I will post more about this later

papers.ssrn.com...
www1.cei.gov.cn...
www.marketwatch.com...
www.chinalawblog.com...