WARNING: SPECULATION!!
What will happen even though the "Bailout Bill" was enacted
1. As of October 12th, I am no longer sure that bank runs won't be coming soon to a neighborhood near you. Especially since the U.K., Germany and
France are this weekend set to announce the effective nationalization of their banking systems and the U.S. expressed similar intentions this weekend.
These governments would not be making these unprecedented moves in unison if they were not concerned that the banks were about to experience a panic
run on them, in my opinion.
2. I am also no longer sure that the Federal Reserve will be the first one lined up at Treasury's window to start trading in the now-almost-one
trillion or so dollars worth of totally dead assets it took on its balance sheet from failed financial institutions around the world. This is because
the entire U.S. banking system is on the brink of failure and Hank Paulson is now stating that he will use the TRILLIONS of dollars authorized by
Congress to try to stave off collapse and a run on the banks. So, the Fed may have to wait--perhaps forever--to ever deal off these dead "assets".
3. One thing is for certain: The U.S. government has made it a top priority that house prices will not fall any further. Instituting everything from
outright foreclosure forbearance to the authorizing of Fannie and Freddie to start purchasing dead, toxic Mortgage Based Securities (MBS), the feds
are desperately trying to keep the housing collapse from continuing unabated. Whether or not they will be successful remains to be seen. However, if
these latest actions fail, you be absolutely assured they WILL resort to even more radical measures--even including the federal government literally
buying empty houses outright and moving people into them at no cost.
4. Clearly the U.S. automobile industry has failed and will be nationalized in one form or another. Whether GM absorbs Ford and Chrysler first and
then is absorbed by the federal government or whether they are all nationalized individually (with perhaps one of them allowed to be dissolved), it is
absolutely guaranteed that there will be a government bailout of the U.S. auto industry.
5. Sorry to have to report this, but I still see tens of millions of people thrown out of work and/or losing their business. Especially in the
bloated, useless "F.I.R.E" (Financial, Insurance and Real Estate) sector.
6. I am now fairly confident that that the people's 401(k)/IRA mutual funds are going to be destroyed one way or another. Either through the
continued stock collapse (as of this writing the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ have all crashed approximately 40%) , through confiscation/taxation of their
funds/gains, or the forced conversion to Government bonds. There are already discussions going on in Washington D.C. as to how the feds might start
tapping into the trillions of dollars currently trapped in the 401(k)/IRA system.
7. I still can't decide whether the U.S. bond market crashes or skies. If our Asian and OPEC debt-enablers keep buying up the multiple-trillions-more
dollars of Treasury debt we will be issuing to fund all the bailouts, then perhaps interest rates stay low.
However, if our debt-enablers demand higher interest rates to compensate them for the risk, or the Federal Reserve have to step up and fling some
fresh dollars to buy the debt, then all bets are off and we could see a full-blown bond crash.
8. While the U.S. dollar has been on an upward rocket shot these last few weeks as other currencies collapse, I cannot make a confident prediction
that this trend will continue. I just don't know how the debt funding will play out and this will be a large determinate as to the relative value of
the U.S. dollar going forward.


