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Will this be Black Friday? - 10/10/08

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posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:38 PM
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reply to post by 2 cents
 

Well, might as well take a guess, seeing as it appears there's been some manipulation today so guessing is about all we can do.

So... How about 6,666?




posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:40 PM
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reply to post by BlackOps719
 


I know, I was being sarcastic. Too soon for humor?



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:41 PM
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reply to post by 2 cents
 


I think it would be a major catastrophe for it to hit anywhere near 5000, I would be moving to antartica if I thought that to be true, I'll weigh in with a bottom just slightly below 8000, maybe near the 7950 mark as a bottom hovering there for a couple weeks then a sharp jump around the first week of November above 10k again and holding there throughout Q1 '09


AB1


P.S. The S&P really scares me more than the Dow



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:42 PM
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reply to post by JustMike
 


Well it appears I'm more pessimistic than the rest of you. Now the next question is when do you think the market will reach bottom?

I'm taking a wild stab at 12-18 months.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:42 PM
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OK I'm in.

Put me down for 6750.

I do hope I'm wrong and we don't go that far down.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:45 PM
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reply to post by alphabetaone
 


5000 is about 65% drop from its high. We are already at 40%. What did the Nikkie do during their realestate bust?



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:47 PM
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reply to post by 2 cents
 


Are we talking about a FINANCIAL market bottom? Consumer market bottom? Or overall economy bottom?

Just my opinion here, but simply because the financial market may reach a bottom (which I think it will do quickly because investors and investment institutions have the relative patience of a sugar high kid with adhd watching pbs) doesn't mean that the consumer market will turn around anytime soon. On the consumer side, I agree at LEAST 12 to 18 months out, but in the financials, I think the bottom will be before Christmas time.

AB1



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:47 PM
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reply to post by LowLevelMason
 


Hmm, 40% down is not gloomy? What rock are you living under, I am looking to relocate to a desolate place that has no connection with the real world.

Seriously, its not as though this just started a couple weeks ago. Everyone on here knows I'm not calling for a collapse, nor do I see it happening. But we are going for a nasty recession, and we will see an UGLY 4th quater because of all this.

You seem just as blinded as the chicken littles of this board.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:51 PM
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reply to post by alphabetaone
 


I think the bulk of financials will tank to near bottom soon but then slide slowly as the consumer economy grinds to a halt. So I think the lowest point of the dow will be reached about 12-18 months from now. Then it will slowly climb back up as we recover over the next 5 years.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:51 PM
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reply to post by alphabetaone
 


There is no chance its getting up at or over 10k before the end of the 4th quater. I just don't see that as possible given the conditions that will weigh down 4th quater expectations. We won't be really rebounding till mid to end 09 or even 2010.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:53 PM
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The monetary system was created out of deception. It is being replaced by 'perception'.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:54 PM
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reply to post by grimreaper797
 


Man, I would really like to hope your guys reticles are way into the windage on that one. While I wont altogether disagree with it as a possibility, I would rather keep my own sentiment on it toward the + side ya know what I mean?


AB1



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:55 PM
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reply to post by 2 cents
 

As you probably guessed my response was more symbolic than literal.

When will it hit bottom? Even if the markets in the US appear to bottom out pretty soon, there are still all the others around the world that have been going through their own turmoil and it's hard to see things calming down very quickly. It's like waves splashing around in a pool after someone jumps in. Bad analogy but it's getting on for 11 pm here and it's been a lonnng day.

I assume the slow trade for this Christmas season has already been factored in to the markets? I mean, I'm not sure if anything has been really thought through that well this past week but for some time it's been clear that shoppers will not be spending so much as last year.

Honestly I think the fact of the upcoming US Presidential election also has to be taken into account. I can't see things really settling down very solidly until that has happened and the outcome is known. So, assuming no new, major revelations of further blood and guts on the economic front, I guess things will stabilize by New Year and start to pick up again in early spring. But how long it takes for things to get back to healthy levels, where people feel confident to invest again... I have no idea. Too many variables and historical examples might not help much. This week was something right out of the box.

Of course, a lot will depend on what the various PTB around the world decide they have to do in terms of restructuring/regulating the system. I've heard the phrase "no magic bullet" quite often in the last few days and it seems pretty apt.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:55 PM
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reply to post by alphabetaone
 


This correction has been a long time coming. I think that 7500 is a modest and logical number for a bottom and we will witness a SLOW recovery. It will take some time to rebuild itself up again.

[edit on 10-10-2008 by grimreaper797]



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 03:58 PM
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reply to post by grimreaper797
 


Yes, true, unless we get more positive rallies like today.

Again, I'm not disagreeing with you guys, just trying to mentally level the playing field so I don't maintain a complete doom and gloom aura.

AB1



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 04:00 PM
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General! General! General Motors!

Yes, what is it?

General Electric is here.

I thought that he an his men got annihilated by the artillery fire!

No, General Electric moved his men to the south.

I see. Who led the charge?

J.P. Morgan.

I see. That's good to hear.





posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 04:01 PM
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I was on here up to page 5 or 6, when I get back lol their is 31 pages lol
. It looks like today was a crazy day. Relax y'all we got another weekend! lets see how this next week plays out



DK



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 04:02 PM
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reply to post by alphabetaone
 


I don't see anything big coming out of the G7 like many are expecting. Furthermore, I am hoping no negative news comes out of Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs.

Best news would be Morgan Stanley confirming its deal with Mitsubishi bank, Goldman Sachs not getting sandbagged by moody's ratings, and G7 coming to agreement on some sort of rating cut or SOMETHING positive.

Worst possible news, no progress made with G7, Morgan Stanley's deal falls through, and both MS and Goldman Sachs credit rating get downgraded.

Lot could happen this weekend, so keep your eye on the news.



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 04:04 PM
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reply to post by grimreaper797
 


No doubt about that much I agree


AB1



posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 04:04 PM
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reply to post by stander
 


Who said JPmorgan was a buy?...Oh right, that was me about a month ago when it was at 35 dollars and being completely oversold. Yes, I am gloating. Anytime JPmorgan goes under 40 dollars, I can't see why you wouldn't buy some of their stock. There numbers don't warrant the sell that happened, and they are a good buy.

edit: Having it hit 39 doesn't necessarily mean buy buy buy if you think it could go down more. It hit 37, but I knew the AIG problem would bring the stock down more, which it eventually did to 35 a couple days later. That was the time to buy. It got up to 50 dollars. (Though I said to sell it at 45ish because bad news was coming with the first bailout bill looking to fail.)

But when JPmorgan hit 36 dollars yesterday close. Overnight the Dow had negative expectations pretty high. If I had money to invest, I would have waited for the dow futures and opening fall to take effect then bought a bunch of JPmorgan as it would have been extremely undervalued.

[edit on 10-10-2008 by grimreaper797]




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