It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

History of the Great Depression

page: 1
4
<<   2 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Oct, 10 2008 @ 01:40 AM
link   
The similarites between the Great Depression and today are mind boggling. Even the time of year is similar (The fall). There is no doubt in my mind that what we are witnessing on Wall Street right now is what happened in October 1929. Don't be fooled by the uptick in 2009. The stock market actually went up a little in 1930, before resuming a steady downward plunge until 1933.

We're looking at 2012 before the American elites and the American people will unite too elect a strong leader who can pass the New Deal II.






The Great Depression was a worldwide economic downturn starting in most places in 1929 and ending at different times in the 1930s or early 1940s for different countries. The Great Depression originated in the United States; historians most often use as a starting date the stock market crash on October 29, 1929, known as Black Tuesday. The end of the depression in the U.S. is associated with the onset of the war economy of World War II, beginning around 1939.

The Great Depression was not a sudden total collapse. The stock market turned upward in early 1930, returning to early 1929 levels by April, though still almost 30 percent below the peak of September 1929. Together, government and business actually spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. But consumers, many of whom had suffered severe losses in the stock market the previous year, cut back their expenditures by ten percent, and a severe drought ravaged the agricultural heartland of the USA beginning in the northern summer of 1930.

In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing. By May 1930, auto sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Prices in general began to decline, but wages held steady in 1930, then began to drop in 1931.

Conditions were worst in farming areas, where commodity prices plunged, and in mining and logging areas, where unemployment was high and there were few other jobs. The decline in the American economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first, then internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, like the 1930 U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade. By late in 1930, a steady decline set in which reached bottom by March 1933.

en.wikipedia.org...




[edit on 10-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]




posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 12:53 AM
link   
Sigh

Don't know why I bother.





posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 01:18 AM
link   
I've been wondering if the great depression will be renamed the first depression in the same way we renamed the Great War, World War 1??



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 01:20 AM
link   

Originally posted by thoughtsfull

I've been wondering if the great depression will be renamed the first depression in the same way we renamed the Great War, World War 1??



WWIII?

What a great question.



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 01:20 AM
link   
Star for you and thank you for letting history speak for itself. We are going to repeat it over and over again until we learn and we need more teachers such as yourself.



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 01:31 AM
link   

Originally posted by Subjective Truth
Star for you and thank you for letting history speak for itself. We are going to repeat it over and over again until we learn and we need more teachers such as yourself.


Thanks but don't shoot the messenger please.

Celente predicts super depression 2012
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I actually understand it.

It's just run away optimisim.

The world of fantasy and reality have to collide though.

It is only where fantasy attempts to triumph over truth and reality that we have a problem though.

Reality check.



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 02:13 AM
link   
reply to post by In nothing we trust
 


History has a horrible way of repeating itself, as we humans find new and inovative ways of burying our heads in the sand and not learning the lessons of our forefathers..

We failed to learn the lesson that sanctions leave the door wide open for powers like Hitler to rise in a democratic society..

If you compare the military tension building during the Great depression, as well as the economic tension... there are many striking striking similarities.

We are opening pandoras box again..



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 03:12 AM
link   
reply to post by In nothing we trust
 


Sorry man, this is nothing like the great depression. IMO nothing is comparable at all really, like how would you say?



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 08:30 AM
link   
Income tax receipts have declined 25% for Fed, and 16.5% for state and local. This reflects unemployment and people who became part time. Lower income means less spending.

Consumer spending makes up 71% of the GDP, and very expensive stimulus packages propped this up in 2009. We've seen news where $4,000 clunkers credit cost $24,000. Spending like this doesn't scale.

Foreclosures have climbed to record highs. Bankruptcies have climbed to record highs.

Unemployment is at 10.1%, but many claim it's closer to 20%. US Population is 305M, capable workers are 238M, and 137M are employed. 17 metro areas have unemployment over 15%.

Unemployment in 1929 was 5.5%. It took three years to reach 25%.

We can't compare 2009 to the Great Depression. It takes time for these things to work itself out of the system, but we're on the same path.



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 08:43 AM
link   
reply to post by In nothing we trust
 


I am sorry I missed this when you OP'ed it.

Let me state that I am not involved, or smart as far as the money markets and such go.
Just with the un-employment, and the lack of jobs created, that is actually a loss IMO, due to everyone wanting cheaper goods so it gets manufactured outa this country now for cheeaper labor, and a few larger chains steeling the market and closing all the mom/pop stores and creating a non-local spending environment that keeps all our money going out of the nation.
Until this changes or something is done to even out the labor pay, those jobs are going to keep leaving and the vicious circle will continue!
the more un-employed we have the more cheaper products are wanted and its fueling the fire, and beings that I'm not very smart, but do understand that if you add fuel to fire it will get larger.



posted on Jan, 22 2010 @ 08:25 PM
link   
reply to post by Dbriefed
 


Unemployment is always a big deal in recessions/hard times. That will always be constant.

I've studied the market quite a bit about what was actually going on during those times. Blatent manipulation was rapant and the stock market was viewed as somthing totally different back then. Although you may think well that's the same as now.. trust me it's not even close.

Also the causes of this recession IMO were very much different - again both were due to rampant speculation I guess you could say - so you could be pretty right there

1)Housing Market this time

2)Stock Market being the lottery (last time)

Our charts are very much different though this time, and we have taken out many many more bullish targets this year. But nonetheless def. not the same IMO.



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 01:57 AM
link   
reply to post by GreenBicMan
 
Although I don't always agree with you, you have a great brain, you think for yourself, and actually do your own research.

Here's what I'm thinking:
The September 1929 crash was caused by excess credit, excess money supply, and speculation during the prior decade. Speculation was on stock, and like housing in our last 10 years everyone thought stocks can only go up. After all, people kept buying more and more stock so there was no downside. Unemployment was 5% and the nation was strong. Unemployment hit 10% in 1930, 15% in 1931, 23% in 1932, and peaked at 25% in 1933.

The September 2008 crash was caused by excess credit, excess money supply, and speculation during the prior decade. Speculation was on housing which was securitized into bonds, rated AAA since after all, the value can only go up. After all, people kept buying more and more houses so there was no downside. Unemployment was 6% and the nation was strong. Unemployment hit 10.1% in 2009...(to be continued)...

Since a depression is measured by GDP decline rather than unemployment numbers, the definition doesn't match the misery. As long as you have a job you're not much affected by the dip (depression) in the GDP chart. Like Reagan said, 'A recession is where your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours'. So if you have a job you're largely unaffected but all around you, you see business closing, others losing their jobs, neighbors getting kicked out of their homes, friends going bankrupt. The official definition of depression as a 10% dip in the line on a chart is pretty sterile and unfeeling. GDP numbers can be fudged, what's important is the amount of misery experienced.



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 03:09 AM
link   
reply to post by Dbriefed
 


Well I just had a whole huge long post but erased by changing websites by mistake.

Basically it was boiling down to a few things as to why we didnt totally crash this time.

1) Speed & Accuracy of 2008-2009 reporting and statistical worldwide real time data that moves markets and investor psychology vs. Early 1900's

2) Fake it until you make it. Back in the early 1900's we didn't have 100 years + of historical tick by tick charts and comparable real time market moving data. We didn't have anything to compare anything to. The rich this time still of course still lost money, but there was not that much fear and paranoia for the ultra wealthy after March. The rich of course set the trends with money outflows and we (the small people) follow their trend. Remember last Sept when the hedge funds, shadow market participants and cash cows about sold off the entire world economy in one day on the exchange? That's what happens when the rich are scared. I think that happened at least 3-5 times in the early 20's.. this time, once (>5% moves or something in that range). Again, we had something psychological to fall back on. Things were never as bad this time around for the populace as they were in previous. This, by definition, really was something that will give markets momentum anyway IMO because far too short of fear and paranoia for the ultra rich. That means they have less of a "memory" of feeling pain like you or I. But we are guppies, and we follow the trend, not make it.

3.My formula is something like this for the marketplace, which is the true reflection of the human psyche relating to your greatest fears and your most outrageous delusions of grandeur.

TIME / ((Speed + Accuracy) - Randomness) = Efficiency

So the greater the time to digest the greater the efficiency and opposite going the other way obviously.

As you know sometimes the most efficient way in a over levered game (i.e. US Economy), or typical candlestick bar formations in a futures market, the fastest way to go up is exhausting the supply underneath you - and the greater the speed of the drop, if all sellers are exhausted at previous prices, the only way to go is up when everyone has to buy back shares plus the greatest majority gets too psychologically hurt and starts to make poor decisions. I think that's what capitulation really is when the biggest money knows when to shake the floor out and only the strong survive, because retail players are trying to convince themselves by blowing their accounts that their ego's are greater than the sum of all participants in the market put together. And the rate of change, in addition to how the supply is exhausted, which is also effected by time, is highly correlated with a return movement that can exceed the previous drop depending on all those factors.

These can be seen in real world examples everyday. Take a look how the EUR/AUD can fall almost 100%, but the way it falls, and the way I believe it will now come back up should make it its own unique reflection coming back the other way. Again, I think most of the formations during its fall were the reflection of speculators (retail) bidding up bear formations and big money was very efficient in how they baited the line. Please check weekly candles over the past year for reference, compare that to other huge bear runs.. I think this is most likely the case because big money really knows economic policy and big money people that make this whole thing, so they would be the ones at the top of FOREX constantly, while chumps like us fight for pips in the bear market that our ego says is turning around when we say it is.

Hope that makes sense

[edit on 23-1-2010 by GreenBicMan]

[edit on 23-1-2010 by GreenBicMan]



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 05:45 PM
link   
reply to post by In nothing we trust
 


They are the same yet different. LOL
Roosevelt and Obama are cut from the same social fabric. The main difference is that Roosevelt tried to keep a balanced budget (believe it or not)and try to keep the national debt low at first by not doing any deficit spending to stimulate the economy. He thought he could tax the rich at 91% and redistribute the wealth to tern the economy around. It failed.
It wasn’t till Japan bombed Pearl Harbor and we started up the war machine that we were able to bring the economy around.
The only problem was we went into debt for 123% the size of GDP.
Now you might say “well heck were spending at least that now and we were able to pay it back then why not now”.
Well the way we repaid that money was from rebuilding Europe and Japan after ww111. So my question to you all is how are we going to repay it this time?

www.huppi.com...
1945
Although the war is the largest tragedy in human history, the United States emerges as the world's only economic superpower. Deficit spending has resulted in a national debt 123 percent the size of the GDP. By contrast, in 1994, the $4.7 trillion national debt will be only 70 percent of the GDP!
The top tax rate is 91 percent. It will stay at least 88 percent until 1963, when it is lowered to 70 percent. During this time, America will experience the greatest economic boom it has ever known.
ECONOMIC TIMELINE

The following timeline shows the order of economic events during the Great Depression. Notice the effect that deficit spending had on economic growth:

Receipts: Tax receipts as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product

Spending: Federal spending as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product

GNP: Percent change in the Gross National Product

Unemp.: Unemployment rate

Tax Federal GNP Unemp.
Year Receipts Spending Growth Rate
-------------------------------------------------
1929 -- -- -- 3.2% < Hoover era, Great Depression begins
1930 4.2% 3.4% - 9.4% 8.7
1931 3.7 4.3 - 8.5 15.9
1932 2.9 7.0 -13.4 23.6
1933 3.5 8.1 - 2.1 24.9 < FDR, New Deal begins; contraction ends March
1934 4.9 10.8 + 7.7 21.7
1935 5.3 9.3 + 8.1 20.1
1936 5.1 10.6 +14.1 16.9
1937 6.2 8.7 + 5.0 14.3 < recession begins, May
1938 7.7 7.8 - 4.5 19.0 < recession ends, June
1939 7.2 10.4 + 7.9 17.2
1940 6.9 9.9
1941 7.7 12.1
1942 10.3 24.8
1943 13.7 44.8
1944 21.7 45.3
1945 21.3 43.7
As you can see, Roosevelt began relatively modest deficit spending that arrested the slide of the economy and resulted in some astonishing growth numbers. (Roosevelt's average growth of 5.2 percent during the Great Depression is even higher than Reagan's 3.7 percent growth during his so-called "Seven Fat Years!") When 1936 saw a phenomenal record of 14 percent growth, Roosevelt eased back on the deficit spending, overly worried about balancing the budget. But this only caused the economy to slip back into a recession, as the above chart shows.

I have been unable to find reliable economic growth figures from World War II, but as a generalization it is safe to say the economy exploded, experiencing it’s greatest growth in U.S. history. Between 1940 and 1945, the GDP nearly doubled in size, from $832 billion to $1,559 billion in constant 87 dollars. And this occurred as deficit spending soared, to levels Keynes had earlier and unsuccessfully recommended to Roosevelt.

[edit on 23-1-2010 by murfdog]



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 05:53 PM
link   
The Great Depression was characterised by its duration and the rates of unemployment. The current "credit crunch" is over bar the repayment of debt and unemployment is still pretty low.

I fail to see similarities.

Regards



posted on Jan, 23 2010 @ 06:23 PM
link   
reply to post by paraphi
 


Well maybe not. The real unemployment rate as of dec 2009 is closer to 17.3%
Check out this link it explains it all real well.
www.bls.gov...



posted on Jan, 24 2010 @ 11:53 PM
link   
reply to post by murfdog
 


Just to back your reference, here's another from BLS.

For December 2009:
Civilian noninstitutional population ..... 236,924 T (236.9 Million)
Employed ............................................... 137,792 T (137.8 Million)
Employment-population ratio .................... 58.2%

ftp.bls.gov...

If Employment-population ratio is 58.2%, then Unemployment-population ratio is 41.8%. It boggles the mind.



posted on Jan, 25 2010 @ 12:13 AM
link   

Originally posted by Dbriefed
reply to post by murfdog
 


Just to back your reference, here's another from BLS.

For December 2009:
Civilian noninstitutional population ..... 236,924 T (236.9 Million)
Employed ............................................... 137,792 T (137.8 Million)
Employment-population ratio .................... 58.2%

ftp.bls.gov...

If Employment-population ratio is 58.2%, then Unemployment-population ratio is 41.8%. It boggles the mind.


How about under-umployed, part-time and self-employed where do they fit into this?

And those over 65 and under 20?

Don't forget that the employed pay for social security and medicare for those who are over 65. That's a tax that most people don't take into account.



[edit on 25-1-2010 by In nothing we trust]



posted on Jan, 25 2010 @ 12:57 AM
link   

Originally posted by In nothing we trust
The similarites between the Great Depression and today are mind boggling.






I believe you're correct except that the credit expansion was about 3 times bigger this time around. The collapse may be bigger too. Most people you ask now won't see the comparison unless they are unemployed and likely not reading this. I believe we would be close to the peak on the stock market chart in 1930 if history repeats. If it's worse this time, unofficial unemployment may reach 33 percent. Government stats were changed so official numbers should never get that bad. I'm just hoping our government doesn't make our currency become worthless.



posted on Jan, 25 2010 @ 01:50 AM
link   

Originally posted by orionthehunter


Originally posted by In nothing we trust

The similarites between the Great Depression and today are mind boggling.





I believe we would be close to the peak on the stock market chart in 1930 if history repeats. If it's worse this time, unofficial unemployment may reach 33 percent.


You know whats not even funny is this.






[edit on 25-1-2010 by In nothing we trust]



new topics

top topics



 
4
<<   2 >>

log in

join