10/9/08 - FSME Denninger Special Report - IT'S HERE!

Someone earlier posted:

They didn't even have martial law when the great depression was occuring.

While that is technically true, there is an important part of history that most people don't remember: The fact that our government used the military to run over their own people, over 10,000 starving WWI Veterans and their families who were protesting in Washington and living in a Hooverville.

History does not paint as rosy a picture about the domestic use of military force in America.

The Bonus Army

In 1924, a grateful Congress voted to give a bonus to World War I veterans - $1.25 for each day served overseas, $1.00 for each day served in the States. The catch was that payment would not be made until 1945. However, by 1932 the nation had slipped into the dark days of the Depression and the unemployed veterans wanted their money immediately.

Read the rest about our war heroes, MacArthur, Eisenhower, and Patton.

www.eyewitnesstohistory.com...



[edit on 11-10-2008 by fragmatic]

Originally posted by grimreaper797
reply to post by Relentless

 

I think you are exaggerating this incredibly. Anyone who lived through 1973-1974 would tell you the same. They lost 45% of the stock value. This bear market is "worse" than the bear market of 1987 and after because its more drawn out of a beating.

I am not exagerating anything, I am giving anecdotal information and I happen to respect my elders.

I think the thing is, you are focusing on just the markets, and I am not. Neither are the people saying this to me, there is a bigger picture here and they are seeing it. Things that did not exist in the previous market crashes exist now and the big picture is uncharted territory. I don't think after a read of this thread anyone can deny that.

The Great Depression Is the Wrong Model for Now

Very interesting article and also addresses some of what has been going back and forth with my unofficial repected foe.

In fact, the current economic woes look a lot like what my 96-year-old grandmother still calls "the real Great Depression." She pinched pennies in the 1930s, but she says that times were not nearly so bad as the depression her grandparents went through. That crash came in 1873 and lasted more than four years. It looks much more like our current crisis.

In the end, the Panic of 1873 demonstrated that the center of gravity for the world's credit had shifted west — from Central Europe toward the United States. The current panic suggests a further shift — from the United States to China and India. Beyond that I would not hazard a guess. I still have microfilm to read.

Scott Reynolds Nelson is a professor of history at the College of William and Mary. Among his books is Steel Drivin' Man: John Henry, the Untold Story of an American legend (Oxford University Press, 2006).

Worth discussion? That last paragraph about "the shift" disturbs me more than a tad.

reply to post by pause4thought


Are people going to take this seriously now? Maybe admit that Relentless wasn't out of line in posting this thread?

Well, some of them have backed off. Probably need some time to digest this info. It's got to be a shocker when they were so sure I had gone over the deep end.

Karl Denninger on the Terry Gilberg show tonight (KFYI-Phoenix, AZ).

Trying to find times and hopefully a link for a live internet feed for those of us out of the area.

Edit : 7PM tonight Arizona time?

Here's a link to their site: www.kfyi.com...

I think this is the streaming video link and it will be live 10PM EST - I think they let you call in too.

Any more doubts about KD check it out for yourself. someone will probably post a video link after the fact if you miss it though.



[edit on 10/11/2008 by Relentless]

Originally posted by The_Modulus
I find the alarmist tone of this thread rather alarming!

Relentless, I think you have been extremely irresponsible in encouraging this fervor. As has been stated numerous times throughout this thread, and is commonly known, the absolute worst thing you can do under these circumstances is cause a panic.

This steps towards the realm of self-censorship.

"Let's not tell the truth, because the truth is alarming."

Political Correctness to its ultimate conclusion.

Money being pulled out of banks and large scale banks runs is not the worst that can happen.
The DOW Jones Industrial's crashing to 3,000 is not the worst that can happen.

The WORST that can happen, is happening in conjunction with the existing bank runs and market crashes. It is happening already, and is happening right now. This worst thing is that the credit markets have locked up.

Frozen in many places. This is due to lack of trust, lack of believing that the other guy is telling the truth, not access to funds (liquidity). If no banks fail, and no one runs on deposits, and the governments decide this weekend to back them all up 100% of deposits insured, and the stock market rallies to 11,000 - none of that matters if the credit markets stay frozen due to mistrust.

The system could just whirl along 100% functioning, until one day credit breaks down, your cc doesn't work anywhere, your atm doesn't work anywhere, and we go to a straight cash economy.

Like happened in Iceland, today, this week. Iceland is bankrupt, no one is accepting Icelandic Krona anymore, it isn't being traded on Foreign Currency
Exchanges, no one is putting money into Iceland, no one can get money out of Iceland, many people with bank deposits have lost it all, their entire banking industry has been nationalised, everyone with stock in the banks lost it all, the government cannot stablise the currency, the central bank cannot do anything effective, and they are in a full blown economic collapse. This is real and happening, not alarmist.

Until the credit market normalises, and that takes the restoration of trust, and that can only happen with honest, open accounting and divulging all assets, of all types, and pricing them honestly, not with some 'distressed' pricing exemptions, until the credit market goes back to normal, nothing else matters.

Banks aren't lending.
Central banks aren't lending to each other.
Commerce, shipping, trucking are at risk due to low or no credit.
Auto dealers are closing due to low business volume and (most disturbingly) due to lack of credit.

If that is alarmist (the truth), then it is alarmist.

-Lera

[edit on 11-10-2008 by leraconteur]

Karl Denninger has been supernaturally accurate over the past year or more. If he says it, I listen. He's a voice of reason amidst a pandemonium of insanity.
I don't think Relentless was out of line at all, even taking Friday into consideration.

God Himself could not have predicted what happened...much less even the best economists.

reply to post by Relentless


I hope people start to digest the info quickly, because there are a whole lot of people with their heads in the sand.

Even if the world doesn't explode in a massive fireball visible from space on Monday, we are in serious trouble here. If people want to discount the mainstream media as scaremongers, fine. If people want to discount KD because they don't know who he is, fine. I don't know what it would take to get the point across to people like that, but I would think the head of the IMF should make the point clear!

Maybe the nay-sayers on this thread need to read the report on this thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

It's the G-20 plan for us.

Might open a few eyes

Originally posted by netwarrior
Karl Denninger has been supernaturally accurate over the past year or more. If he says it, I listen. He's a voice of reason amidst a pandemonium of insanit
I don't think Relentless was out of line at all, even taking Friday into consideration.

Karl is just very very smart, trades full time, does his own research, and had the spare time to look into this beginning in April of 2007. He applies sound economics and pairs it with an admittedly bearish perspective. There are many other bloggers and a handful of economists who saw this coming in Mid-2005. Mostly the Housing Doom, Housing Bubble and Housing Panic crowd.

I was lucky enough to fall in with this crowd last November.

[edit on 11-10-2008 by leraconteur]

reply to post by Relentless


thanks for link to KFYI, bet there server goes 'poof' now
'feel the power of ATS'

I'm not hearing anything on it btw..are they dead air atm?
Edit: fixed it, doesn't work well with firefox I guess

This has been a great debate, and mostly a respectful debate..my applauds to both sides on this, with a little slap to grim on the video; good clip, I love that show..but I hope you don't end up regretting it.

What worries me the most:

1. markets open and banks closed..most people not working - and its the 13th. Good thing its not a Friday, but this is just bad on so many levels its almost funny..while I'm going there any numerologist gonna speak up on 10/13/08?

2. G20, IMF, desperate measures, doing anything to solve this crisis...does it get any worse then this?

Grim: You were on board with the bail out, because something has to be done to fix this crisis. Irregardless of what constitutional laws are trampled, the bad things stuffed in the bill, the transfer/expansions of power, or what the people 'wanted' - as long as it fixed the crisis. That's all the matters. I can respect your position on that. But, if the end result of this G20 and Global effort to fix this impending meltdown is doing away with our currency, switching to a global one, or even an Amero. Is that okay for the sake of fixing a crisis?

Where do we draw the line and say enough is enough. Personally that line for me was crossed with the Patriot act. It was far exceeded with this bail out. And I'm scarred to death of whats going to come out of this weekend.

[edit on 10/11/2008 by toepick]

This whole mess is a trust issue. No trust in the world governments and between banks. If trust isn't restored, and very soon, our economy will get worse.

I have read through this bailout legislation. Its not pretty, and includes some of the scariest, power grabbing, foreign investor payday language in existence. It, in my opinion, was not a bill intended to instill confidence in our markets or US investors but rather, a bill to appease angry foreign governments who had greedily bought the "troubled" assets from US banks. And the US taxpayers and future generations will be paying the tab for this bailout for generations to come.

People like KD saw this as well, and knew it did nothing to address the problems. He brought his knowledge forward, and offers REAL market solutions. He has spent his own time and money trying to reach anyone who will listen. His efforts, and all those who help him, should be applauded.

Relentless, you keep doing your FSME thing. I, for one, appreciate all your efforts.

[edit on 11-10-2008 by Lurkerzrule]

reply to post by Relentless


Dear OP

I for one think your source, your source's story and this site's kee jerk chicken little outlook on this whole situation... is crap.

The world will not end tomorrow, or next week.

your banks are not going to start closing up left and right, and you are not heading into a great depression.

Commerce is still moving, and frankly, we're seeing an increase of it at where I work.

Stick a fork in your theories.. they're done.

reply to post by CoffinFeeder


You haven't read the thread? You haven't seen any evidence provided by our diligent members? I also notice you post nothing more than an opinion, with no research or anything of value to add to your hypothesis.

You know what, I don't have a fork to waste for you. Melted them down for scrap already

No one tells Relentless what to do btw

Originally posted by CoffinFeeder
I for one think your source, your source's story and this site's kee jerk chicken little outlook on this whole situation... is crap.

Commerce is still moving, and frankly, we're seeing an increase of it at where I work.

I sincerely hope you don't feel the crunch at your place of employment.
Unfortunately hundreds of thousands of people all across the country know how well commerce is "moving" now.

If all is well, why is the G7 and now the ]G20 and the IMF in "crisis mode?" What sort of meltdown are they trying to fix - did Britney have another freakout that I missed?

Get your head out of the sand.

John Maudlin - Thoughts From The Frontline

Letters of Credit: Going, Going Gone?

Just as the business world is dependent upon commercial paper as its life blood, the world of global trade depends on letters of credit (LOC). Without LOCs, the world of trade quickly freezes up.

If you are a manufacturer of a product and want to sell to someone outside your borders, you typically require a letter of credit from the buyer before you load any cargo at a port. A letter of credit from a prime bank is considered to be proof of your ability to pay. It not only can be a source of ultimate payment, it can be a source of inventory financing while goods are in transit.

And if you are a business which is buying a product, you do not want to release money until you know the product is on the way. There are buyer's and seller's agents who make sure these things happen seamlessly, and world commerce had grown because of it.

Now we are starting to get anecdotal evidence that this extremely vital market is also freezing up. If you think the problems stemming from a meltdown with the commercial paper markets are threatening to the world economy, they are small potatoes when compared to a seizure in the letter of credit markets.

I had been thinking about this for a few weeks. Then an article posted on Naked Capitalist caught my eye. Quoting:

"At the end of the day, if every counterparty is bad then you don't have a market and you don't have an economy. I spoke to another friend of mine this afternoon, whose father has been in the shipping business forever. Pristine credit rating, rock solid balance sheet. He says if he takes his BNP Paribas letter of credit to Citi today for short term funding for his vessels, they won't give it to him. That means he can't ship goods, which means that within the next 2 weeks, physical shortages of commodities begin to show up. THE CENTRAL BANKS CAN'T LET THAT HAPPEN OR WE HAVE NO ECONOMY, LET ALONE A CREDIT SYSTEM."

And they quote the following story from The Financial Post of Canada:

"The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.

"Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.

"'There are all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit,' said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. 'The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy.'

"So far the problem is mostly being felt in U.S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada. 'We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse,' said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver.

"Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world's trade by volume goes by ship. 'The credit crisis has made banks nervous and the last thing on their minds is making fresh loans,' Omar Nokta, an analyst at investment bank Dahlman Rose, said in an interview with Reuters.

"While shipping has always been a cyclical industry whose fortunes rise and fall with the global economy, analysts said the current crisis over the drying up of credit is something they have never seen before."

If banks are refusing to go into the LIBOR market and lend to each other, then why would they want to take a letter of credit either? At first, it will be a small trickle, which is how the commercial paper meltdown started. Then it will be a flood.

The one good sector in the US is its export sector. Start slowing that down due to a lack of ability to ship or receive payments and see what happens to an already shrinking economy. If anyone wants to see how the credit crisis can affect Main Street, look no further.

It is hard to overstate the problem and the potential for it to create a true economic meltdown. It must be dealt with, and soon.

I do not see Relentless being an alarmist, just see the effort to be a wake up alarm bell!

I think the speculation is premature and it will proly take much more than a bad stretch in the world markets to really crash the global economy. However, it does give me cause for concern about what is really happening. Specifically, the move of the global governments to gain control over the banks, financial companies, and now even large manufacturing/distribution companies in exchange for a stake in the companies.

It is my opinion that this will only lead to a type of global governance, with the control of the worlds population as the ultimate goal. The Novus Ordo Seclorum is much closer than we thought.

So now all of the people warning against just such a scenario, who the majority labelled as eccentric conspiracy theorists suddenly have much evidence to prove that their theories weren't so ludicrous after all.

So all we can do is sit back and watch as the puppet masters put on the big show....

reply to post by anachryon


Best use of Clickies EVER!

Also, my partner at work (on the ambulance), she used to work in the hotel industry for 10-15 years. She made the comment last night while we were at work that all the hotels should be booked up over here through the weekend (just accross the Canada border) for the Monday holiday sales, 'they always are' she said.

I had her call around, and 2 of the 3 she called were NOT booked up. She was stunned and got kinda quiet for a while, as I have been running my mouth about all this at work. I think until Friday they were pretty much blowing me off, now they are at least talking about it and talking about the effects they are seeing.