We Are Not Headed for a Great Depression

We Are Not Headed for a Great Depression

emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com

In a bear market, there is always a bull run on Chicken Little helmets.

We are not headed for a Great Depression. There are no souplines stretching for city blocks. Yes the market may drift lower, but here are the major differences between then and now

(visit the link for the full news article)

This is for all of you who think we are heading for a great depression. For all of you who thing we should not have done a resue plan. There are so many doom and gloom articles and posts out there that say our( The USA) economy is going to completely collapse, I thought I would post an article that may give some people hope. I, like everyone else, is very scared what is going on today. This, no doubt, is a complete disaster. However after reading this article it game me some optimism. Hopefully it will do the same for some of you. I know it probably against ATS T&C to post an article that gives positive new, and I am sure most people here will still beat this article down and say there is no hope, we are all doomed. However I expect that from this site. So here it is. Read the whole article above.
edit to add: One thing I admit this article doesnt talk about is the 11 trillion dollar debt the USA has that it didnt have back then.

emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 9-10-2008 by tide88]

OH COME ON!! IT'S FOX BUSINESS!

Geez... I don't believe a thing Fox puts out.

I will admit to there being the "chicken little's" in these threads and elsewhere, but, I think for every chicken little there is an ostrich with his head in the sand.

I hope she's right, but I question some of her ideas.

For example:

*Industrial production dropped by 45% during the Great Depression. So far it is down 1.5% this year, led by the downturn in the automotive sector. US manufacturing remains in a recession, however.

It dropped DURING the Depression. We are just starting to feel the ripples on "Main Street" now; obviously production hasn't dropped 45%. It's like comparing apples to wallpaper. We're not "in" a depression, ergo our production won't be reduced by that much. That number wasn't taken BEFORE the Great Depression; we should be comparing production in the months before the bottom dropped out to current numbers.

Also:

*Becker reiterates that the United States had about 25% unemployment during most of the decade from 1931 until 1941, and sharp falls in GDP.

As above, we're comparing the figures incorrectly.


I wish she had done more research and not written an article comprised entirely of quoting an economist and using statistics improperly.

The market needs to correct! We have been riding a wave of over inflated stock prices for several years.8,000 is probably a stable point to settle.The market will undoubtly slip below 8,000 to weed out the weaker companies.
Take heart though,this will afford the creation of new business ventures.

reply to post by anachryon


Doom and gloom ? I see the collapse of the globalized capitalist system as an opportunity to change things, big time... Doom and gloom is going back to being a wage slave for 50 years, and living like a sheeple in a society which controls my every thoughts and actions.

reply to post by tide88


You could be right.

But people don't wait in soup lines until they're in the MIDDLE of a "Great Depression". The fact that we are not in soup lines (yet) doesn't indicate any strength in the economy. Give it time. And a 21st Century depression may look nothing like the 1930s. There are so many differences, I don't expect it to be similar at all. But when GM falls to $5 a share and Ford is $2 a share... something's happenin!

And I agree with those who say it needs to happen.

GM



Ford

1- Your first assumption is wrong....if it happened before, it can happen again
2-Foxbusinessnews? MSM is bought by corporations
3-During the Great Depression we had a manufacturing base
4-People new how to grow their own food, heat their own homes etc...they were much less reliant on teh gov't
5-The dollar was backed by Gold
6-We had no debt
7-Most people weren't invested in the stock market
8-Most people had farms and could always go back to then(Waltons?)

You can on and on.......when it happens this time, it will be much worse.

.02c

I notice the article is hosted on Fox...

Anyhow, I don't think we're headed for a depression either.

However, saying that the bail outs are necessary are debatable - the US Fed reserve pumped in a record $431 billion on Wednesday into the financial markets, and other central banks around the world have been taking the same action for over a fortnight.

That value is being wiped off stocks everyday.

$700 billion is just going to be inhaled and spat back out.

[edit on 9-10-2008 by mattguy404]

Originally posted by Ismail
Doom and gloom ? I see the collapse of the globalized capitalist system as an opportunity to change things, big time... Doom and gloom is going back to being a wage slave for 50 years, and living like a sheeple in a society which controls my every thoughts and actions.

And what do you think should replace the "globalized capitalist system"?

Originally posted by mattguy404
I notice the article is hosted on Fox...

Anyhow, I don't think we're headed for a recession either.

We're already in a recession; how can we not be headed for one?

reply to post by tide88


I would bet money that by Friday if someone did an independent survey that we would find unemployment at 15 percent. The media would never let the truth to be told.

I will also bet that the economy will crumble and it will happen by Christmas. Banks and investment houses are stuck with 800 trillion in Credit Default Derivatives that are only worth about 5% of what they paid for them, As soon as someone comes out and starts putting real prices on them all hell is going to break loose.

reply to post by anachryon


The government also didnt do anything to prevent the great depression. They just let it happen. At least this time the government is trying to fix the problem. Which is why I think we will pull out of this mess. Only time will tell. We should know more in a couple of months.

Global peace and tolerance. Freedom from the chains of a society which feeds on the poor and the dying third world like a vulture. A ressource based "economy". Truth. Many things could grow out of this. Ten years of hell first, though.

reply to post by Sky watcher


And that Hell may have already broken lose. The credit markets and interbank lending are in Deep Freeze due to the fear of who's holding the hundreds of Trillions in Derivatives. If they stay that way much longer, it's game over.

FOX business news! Are you kidding me! Keith Rupert Murdoch! Come on!

reply to post by anachryon


Whoops! I meant to say depression

Six months ago everyone who said the US were headed for a recession were shouted down.

The Fox article has the same sort of language for a depression.

Maybe saying recession was just wishful thinking

Originally posted by Ismail
Global peace and tolerance. Freedom from the chains of a society which feeds on the poor and the dying third world like a vulture. A ressource based "economy". Truth. Many things could grow out of this. Ten years of hell first, though.

It will not be ten years. Optimistically I think maybe 1 year till we see improvement, probably will be 2011 or 2012 realistically.

Originally posted by MarkAkaSilent
FOX business news! Are you kidding me! Keith Rupert Murdoch! Come on!

The source of the article has nothing to do with the statistics posted. Those statistics are facts. Give it up on the Fox News people. They talk about doom and gloom as much as this site.

Gary Becker, a Nobel prize-winning professor of economics at the University of Chicago, notes in a Wall Street Journal editorial that although we are in the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, this is a far smaller crisis, especially in terms of the effects on output and employment

I am pretty sure a nobel prize winner for economics knows more about the economy then you Mark. Even if he was interviewed by fox news. Also for someone to criticize fox news and think that Blossom Goodchild GFL ufo's might appear on the 14th should be criticizing any news source.

[edit on 9-10-2008 by tide88]