Big rock coming. Would you leave?

Asteroid 2008 TC3 was discovered outside of the moon's orbit. A really tiny object, moving really fast, and very far away. It's now come and gone and because of its small size apparently disintegrated high in the atmosphere or missed, causing no reported damage (yet). This was as predicted. I really hope I right about this. It's still a bit early to be saying this.

Had it been 10 or 20 times larger and represented a real threat to its predicted impact zone (though not the planet as a whole) there would have been a chance to notify the authorities. What a great demonstration of how our increasing expertise in locating and identifying objects in space could save lives! This object was discovered less than 48 hours before impact. If it had been larger it may have been discovered earlier but there still would be no chance to do anything but try to get people out of the way. So, would an evacuation have been ordered? Would an evacuation have been possible?

The evacuation of the Gulf coast of Texas was considered a success with more than 1 million people leaving the area within two days. Pretty impressive. Could such a thing have been accomplished if the impact zone had been a very high density area like, oh, southern California? I have my doubts. So what would the authorities do? What would the inhabitants do? Some Texans didn't leave and some of them didn't live to regret it. I know, we've got a lot of disaster movies that give us the "answer". But what would really happen?

[edit on 6-10-2008 by Phage]

reply to post by Phage

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I have my doubts as well; the 405 would become the highway of death...

I commute it everyday, and let me tell you, if there was an asteroid heading towards SoCal chaos would ensue.

The evacuation of the gulf coast was indeed a success, but a hurricane/tornado is far different than an asteroid impact...they have video of people surviving a tornado passing over head, or seeking shelter and avoiding the catastophe itself...

But a large asteroid is going to obliterate the area, so seeking shelter is of little use...and since most people are aware of this, panic may ensue, preventing the evacuation from going smoothly...


As to the PSA for the event...well, I guess it depends on whether the PTB consider the event a national emergency or a blessing in disguise...population control may come in a surprise form...

Good post.







grammar edit

[edit on 10/6/2008 by chapter29]

Provided that you can say with VERY high certainty that the impact will be on land, I think there's an option open in cases of an extreme emergency like this that you wouldn't even see suggested in the case of a hurricane (partly because of the nautical nature of such a storm) - head for the sea. Get as many freighters, cruise ships, navy vessels, and any other large ship you can find to as many nearby ports as possible and fill them with people practically shoulder to shoulder and ship them out as soon as each ship is filled. Not ideal or comfortable conditions, but you could at least move massive numbers of the healthy populace that way, freeing other modes of transportation (military cargo planes, contracted private flights, etc) to be used for citizens requiring special help.

Leave to where?

If a rock hits that causes a huge tidal wave, or a massive hole in the ground, wont be too many places to leave to.

Unless you got hidden in your garage a late model electroplagmatic spaceship..I dont see any avenue of escaping a massive impact.

Cheers!!!!

With a truly massive object there wouldn't be much anyone could do but my thought was an object of about the size of the one that formed the crater near Flagstaff, AZ.

It's been calculated that the Arizona impact released about 2.5 megatons of energy. The effects are thought to have been pretty much what you would expect. A fireball with a two mile radius, a shockwave out to 12 miles, and hurricane force winds out to twenty miles. No climate affecting dust cloud was generated.

An object this size would be escapable. Things would be a mess 15 miles away but it would be survivable. We are talking about an area the size of the San Fernando valley. Getting 2 million people out of the valley in 2 days could be done. But the problem is there would be a margin of error in predicting the exact impact point, so all of LA would have to be evacuated.

I tend to think that because of the internet, the news of such a discovery would not, could not be suppressed. If I heard about it I would load my family up and get the hell out without packing. The real question is would the authorities be able to conduct an orderly evacuation. It worked in Texas but that was with 15x fewer people.

If an asteroid with devastating capabilities was heading our way, you would never hear about it, even if the government did know about it. If you would want to see humanity's true colors, give 48 hour notice of a Extinction Level Event impact. You would see chaos, true Hell on Earth.

reply to post by Oreyeon

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If an extinction level even were predicted, I have a hunch the would be those who would head straight to ground zero. But that's not the topic.

I'm talking about an object a few times bigger than the one that just came in. The blast would be like a medium sized nuke without the radiation.

We could certainly not trust the Govt. to inform us of an incoming danger.

That is why the Space program must be put back into civilian hands.

NASA will always choose the Military Industial Complex over the American People - and in my book - that's nothing short of treason!

A civilian backed Space Elevator would be a good start.

I am sure, though, that the American People are not likely to wake up to this reality anytime soon.

(many people I know cannot even recall the 8 planets in proper order in our solar system)

You could get out of the way of an meteor impact, such as the one the OP asked about, if you were given enough time. Location will make a huge difference. If the target were Long Island for instance, evacuations would be complex to say the least but if we are talking a high impact zone of 15-30 miles it would be easy for many people to walk that far in a day. Where I live I could probably get 400 miles north in 6-7 hours driving.

I would take camping gear and supplies and pick out some cherrished items and batten down the house as if a hurricane were coming.

Here's the estimated path of Aphosis in 2036 but subject to change of course.

Funny you should mention, since the government openly solicits civilian help in tracking and plotting the orbits of all potentially dangerous near earth objects, thereby making all possible threats public knowledge at all times. You can get a list of the latest discoveries that need immediate further observation here:
cfa-www.harvard.edu...

Will the civilians also deorbit every government's low earth orbit satellites first, and will that operation be by force or voluntary? It's essential to do this before you build your elevator, or else the elevator will find itself doing the "clean up job."

ngchunter,

You bring up some good, important points - and I certainly don't mean to trivialize the effort that would be required to restore accountability AND transparency to NASA or any other attempt at a civilian space agency.

And I by no means mean to demonize NASA as sinister opponent of mankind, in fact I have a couple of friends who work there - although their access to information, like most workers there, is heavily compartmentalised - but even they would admit that NASA'a loyalty lies first to the DoD and secondly to the American Taxpayer.

While Near Earth Object Observation Initiatives, like the one you provided, are quite needed and informational - I fear that transparency flows only one way - with the Govt. benefiting from the data, and reserving the right to censor or classify any data they find "destabilizing" for the general public.

Academic and Governmental partnerships almost always follow this unfortunate - even insidious - pattern.

(the Jason groups being only one example)

en.wikipedia.org...

As far as who would regulate the clean up of Low Earth Objects - I would propose a civilian based Space Agency would be up to such a task - with the cooperation of other "peaceful" nations.

While it is an engineering project of some magnitude - neither it - nor a Space Elevator program - are outside our "known" technical ability, even in this early part of the 21st century.

Would the US Govt., in collusion with other 1st world Nations, downplay a substantial threat to civilization? - I honestly don't know - but their track record of secrecy and manipulation - frankly stinks - and I'd rather not bet the Human race on their non supervised judgement.


"The very word "secrecy" is repugnant in a free and open society; and we are as a people inherently and historically opposed to secret societies, to secret oaths and to secret proceedings. We decided long ago that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts far outweighed the dangers which are cited to justify it. Even today, there is little value in opposing the threat of a closed society by imitating its arbitrary restrictions. Even today, there is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it. And there is very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon by those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment"

- John F. Kennedy (April 27, 1961)

How can you censor data that's already been released to the public? Amateurs can follow the path of any neo quite well with their own equipment. If an object were to be headed on a collision course they will be among the first to know - such a realization would not even be possible until enough observations are in to adequately plot the orbit, something amateurs themselves contribute to. The government can't censor information they don't even yet realize is a "threat."

In fact, in 2004 an amateur was the one to call off the alarm after professional astronomers had calculated a 1-in-4 chance of impact within 36 hours. Thanks to an amateur's lucky observation between clouds the alarm was called off before the president would make an announcement. That incident proves that NASA does not do anything to hide possible impacts from the average citizen, and in fact average citizens are crucial to determining whether or not an impact will happen.

Oh really? So every peaceful nation will happily allow a civilian agency (or any agency for that matter) to deorbit all of their low earth orbit satellites and put a permanent ban on all of their launchers? Not going to happen.

Space elevators require a material stronger than anything we can currently make. While nanotechnology MAY lead to materials up to the task, we have yet to even design it.

No. They wouldn't be able to, they're too dependent on civilian sources of information to make that determination themselves, sources which would not stay silent.

[edit on 7-10-2008 by ngchunter]

This is a good topic, Phage, and I appreciate your bringing it up.

No, we would not leave. First, we're a dinky little island, and a statistically difficult target to hit. Of course, a moderate tsunami, originating in, say, the Cayman Trench, would project low odds for survival here, even in a high-ground cave.

We've chosen to make our stand here. There's a certain amount of peace associated with that decision. Come what may, we'll face it here. Better to die at home, in the lands and beauty familiar than to be part of the herds fighting and jockeying for position on an airplane to ...... who knows what??

I'd rather go holding onto the one I love than fighting for survival in the herd. baaaaaa-aaaaa-aaaaa

reply to post by argentus

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Actually, I too live on an island. I have a boat though and might consider a temporary evacuation. I'm afraid there wouldn't be much to come home to though but life does go on.

The government would not necessarily inform the population of impending danger. They still allow construction and living in areas that we know from past experiences nature destroys everything there.
Common sense would tell people not to live there, but they still do. Evacuating an area the size of the San Fernando Valley to where?
These objects have historically sruck in the interior of the continent anyway.

reply to post by calcoastseeker

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But the government did declare a mandatory evacuation of the Gulf Coast and it worked, for the most part. How is this different?

You're right about people living in known high risk areas but that's been going on for a long time with no indication that it will ever change. There are no areas known to be at high risk for meteoric impacts.

I gave Arizona as an example. I don't know of any statistics about impact locations. Do you?

I think it would depend on what is expected from the impact. Obviously with objects like 500m + asteroids that would be capable of devastating entire continents, there wouldn't be any point in evacuation, but I think that an object that's capable of causing similar damage to Tunguska would be worth trying to outrun if there was sufficient notice.

For a predicted land impact of an object on this scale, only the people close to ground zero, and those who are some way away and without anywhere to shelter would have to be evacuated.

Taking shelter at sea would be a very bad idea I think, since if there is an error in the predicted impact site, and the object hits the sea, lots will die!

For predicted sea-impacts, the answer is obvious - head inland and up hill to avoid incoming tsunamis.

I have nowhere to go,

when a big rock comes, and there is 48hours notice, and was big enough to wipe out something the size of california. it would be big enough to flatten my country. What to do?

reply to post by Phage

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Of course i would leave, along with the majority who share the same opinion.

I would probably distance my self the length of a few states apart from the calculated danger zone as you stated just for error compensation.

My movement would really be determined by my critical thinking against the quality and credibility of the input concerning the upcoming object.

The answer as to if we were able to accomplish such an evacuation really lies in the statement you did yourself:

???

I am hopeful that up to medium sized events would be effectively dealt with, with minimal loss.
However i have a fear that more critical events may give rise to the loss of control and break of infrastructure authorities as well as the authorities themselves, as seen in some thrillers.

A critical event scenario would probably bring up the:

EVERYONE RUN FOR HIS OWN LIFE SCENARIO...

While some politicians, wealthy or well established/connected people would have the luck of any emergency infrastructure...

out at sea would be one of the safer place's to be. Tsunami only really become destructive as they approach land. As the sea level decreases the wave height increases.. out in the open ocean the Tsunami wave is quit small so you'r chances of survival are higher on a ship of some sorts. perhaps an arc.

Hi phage,
I would imagine with enough warning any evacuation would be a sucess. That is provided you know with some certainty where the object would impact. Even if the evacuation were not a sucess would the loss of life be that great on the grand scale.

For example:
The Tsunami in the indian ocean killed aprox 250,000 people. I think that was the official number.. On the grand scale every day aprox 250,000 people die of natrual causes. When you look at things that way the loss of life was not so great..

Now if the object were to impact say Mexico City the loss of life is 21,000,000. Now that would be significant in my eyes.. but at the same time 21 million subtracted from 6 billion is still near or next to no difference. So to evacuate or not.. It may make a difference to you and your family but to the PTB and the stats it is probably cheaper not to evacuate..

peace

daz__