I agree that polls sometimes can be misleading, but what I take in consideration this time is that many polls including some polls made by the GOP and
Fox News also show the shift towards Obama even in some key republican states and swing states.
Obama is currently leading in Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Missouri, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico, Iowa all of these
states Bush won in 2004.
Obama in the other hand has a a pretty good grip on the states that John Kerry won in 2004.
The fact that matter is that Sen. Obama is spreading McCain thin IN HIS OWN TERRITORY!, the fact that Sen. McCain already conceded Michigan a state
that he thought he could bring to his side points this out.
The Bradley effect is real BUT when you take into consideration a the margin and spread that Sen. Obama holds on many of this republican and swing
states I think the effect would be marginalized.
Polls show Obama leading in Ohio, tied in Indiana
By The Associated Press – 9 hours ago
THE POLL: Washington Post-ABC News poll of 772 likely Ohio voters (20 electoral votes).
THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama, 51 percent; John McCain, 45 percent.
OF INTEREST: Obama's lead revolves around the worry about the economy. Those who say it is the biggest issue favor Obama 61-34 percent; those who say
the biggest issue is something else back McCain 57-38 percent. Obama is generating more enthusiasm among his voters: 58 percent say they are very
enthusiastic while 30 percent say the same about McCain. Women are solidly backing Obama 56-42 percent; in 2004 they split evenly between George W.
Bush and John Kerry. Only about half of all Ohio voters think Obama is experienced enough to be president.
DETAILS: The poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 3-5 with 772 likely voters out of a total sample of 1,010 adults in Ohio. The sampling error was
plus or minus 3 percentage points.
NO REPUBLICAN president has ever been elected without winning Ohio and the fact that McCain is going to have spend more time there in the final weeks
is going to allow Obama to go to other swing and republican states and campaign even harder.
The bottomline IMO, it would take a complete collapse from the Obama campaign in order for them to lose. The odds are heavily stack against the McCain
campaign and it shows by this late round of desperate attacks that at the end could backfire on them and it would be the final nail in the coffin.
And if you ask me what went wrong with the McCain presiential run I would say the economy first and Gov. Palin pick second. The fact that Sen. Obama
has succesfully painted him as more Bush has been a huge success.
But remember with more than 3 weeks still left, anything can happen.
[edit on 7-10-2008 by Bunch]