The polls are wrong - McCain is winning - and here's why..

reply to post by Fromabove


Maybe if you provided some links to back your statistics, then we could take your premise more seriously. Black man hater or Hillary supporter or not, Obama is crushing McCain.

For me, the most telling reason so far I have seen as to why Obama will win, and possibly by a landslide is the statistical analysis based on polling numbers at 270towin.

Although the polls may be somewhat misleading, they are much truer to the pulse of the people. The most recent polling trends show McCain has less than a 1% chance to win.
www.270towin.com...

Maybe the numbers and all the trends lie,
DocMoreau

Originally posted by DocMoreau
reply to post by Fromabove

 

Maybe if you provided some links to back your statistics, then we could take your premise more seriously. Black man hater or Hillary supporter or not, Obama is crushing McCain.

For me, the most telling reason so far I have seen as to why Obama will win, and possibly by a landslide is the statistical analysis based on polling numbers at 270towin.

Although the polls may be somewhat misleading, they are much truer to the pulse of the people. The most recent polling trends show McCain has less than a 1% chance to win.
www.270towin.com...

Maybe the numbers and all the trends lie,
DocMoreau

Your post would receive a star from me, but only if elections were today.

The website you posted states it very clearly, a 1-2% difference in some states could change the results all together. Why are you putting so much emphasis on the site, when we still have a few weeks to go? States polls can change in the matter of 2-3 days, and the polls ive seen are already starting to show a slide back in McCains direction, although Obama still has a significant lead.

The site is fun to play with. My educated guess would say its all going to boil down to Nevada or Indiana this election.

[edit on 10/7/2008 by AndrewTB]

reply to post by AndrewTB


I agree, the polls bounce up and down so much I don’t see the point in claiming one can predict the election. They are just snap shots in time. Something major could happen tomorrow and everything would sway again.

I agree that polls sometimes can be misleading, but what I take in consideration this time is that many polls including some polls made by the GOP and Fox News also show the shift towards Obama even in some key republican states and swing states.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Obama is currently leading in Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Missouri, Florida, Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, New Mexico, Iowa all of these states Bush won in 2004.
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Obama in the other hand has a a pretty good grip on the states that John Kerry won in 2004.
www.cnn.com...

The fact that matter is that Sen. Obama is spreading McCain thin IN HIS OWN TERRITORY!, the fact that Sen. McCain already conceded Michigan a state that he thought he could bring to his side points this out.

The Bradley effect is real BUT when you take into consideration a the margin and spread that Sen. Obama holds on many of this republican and swing states I think the effect would be marginalized.

Polls show Obama leading in Ohio, tied in Indiana
By The Associated Press – 9 hours ago

THE POLL: Washington Post-ABC News poll of 772 likely Ohio voters (20 electoral votes).

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama, 51 percent; John McCain, 45 percent.

OF INTEREST: Obama's lead revolves around the worry about the economy. Those who say it is the biggest issue favor Obama 61-34 percent; those who say the biggest issue is something else back McCain 57-38 percent. Obama is generating more enthusiasm among his voters: 58 percent say they are very enthusiastic while 30 percent say the same about McCain. Women are solidly backing Obama 56-42 percent; in 2004 they split evenly between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Only about half of all Ohio voters think Obama is experienced enough to be president.

DETAILS: The poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 3-5 with 772 likely voters out of a total sample of 1,010 adults in Ohio. The sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

ap.google.com...

NO REPUBLICAN president has ever been elected without winning Ohio and the fact that McCain is going to have spend more time there in the final weeks is going to allow Obama to go to other swing and republican states and campaign even harder.

The bottomline IMO, it would take a complete collapse from the Obama campaign in order for them to lose. The odds are heavily stack against the McCain campaign and it shows by this late round of desperate attacks that at the end could backfire on them and it would be the final nail in the coffin.

And if you ask me what went wrong with the McCain presiential run I would say the economy first and Gov. Palin pick second. The fact that Sen. Obama has succesfully painted him as more Bush has been a huge success.

But remember with more than 3 weeks still left, anything can happen.

[edit on 7-10-2008 by Bunch]

I'm going to be completely honest here, and I don't want people to get bent out of shape, but I feel that a vote for Obama, is actually just a vote for Biden.

Honestly --
Does anyone think that Obama will not be assassinated if he wins the election?

Originally posted by Shugo
Does anyone think that Obama will not be assassinated if he wins the election?

I do.

Among other things, this is not an easy thing to pull off on today's climate.

I'll vote Obama and keep my fingers crossed.

reply to post by buddhasystem


And yet, terrorists were able to kill over 2000 people on 9/11 without any sort of heads up from USAF Air Defense?

Originally posted by Shugo
I'm going to be completely honest here, and I don't want people to get bent out of shape, but I feel that a vote for Obama, is actually just a vote for Biden.

Honestly --
Does anyone think that Obama will not be assassinated if he wins the election?

At least you're honest. Another way of saying it is:

If Obama was a White man, he would lead in the polls by at least 20 points.

reply to post by Shugo


Well, Bush was told very clearly what was going to happen. Got memos saying stuff like OBL will use airplanes as missiles and crash them into WTC and the Pentagon and... Bush went on vacation. I'm sure the Secret Service will know that Obama will be heavily targeted. They'll probably ask the Pope to borrow his bullet proof glass bubble and keep it on Obama all day every day. Showering with it on, going to bed with it on, will get messy trying to go to the bathroom in it.

Originally posted by AndrewTB

Your post would receive a star from me, but only if elections were today.

Well thanks for nothing!

I understand that things on that site that if a 1-2% change in the polls can change everything. I guess I didn't preface that I have been watching the 'simulations' there for a little while, and have seen the trends switch from 50-50 to the way things look now, with McCain with less than 1% of a chance to win.

I don't know why I am putting so much emphasis on that site. I really like pollster.com... as well. I do know that I trust the aggregation of the poll numbers much more than anything that comes out of the pundit's mouths. The Mainstream media controls the race as long as they can to keep parity for as long as possible in order to milk as much ad dollars as they can.

But you are right, there is still a lot of time for things to change. But I think McCain would need to get possessed by the Spirit of the Gipper in order to win this one.

DocMoreau

Polls don't mean squat. But the Book in Las Vegas has Obama 8 to 5.
Of course that can change too but I never bet against the house.

So who do you trust; men that make their living playing the odds or a bunch of academics?

Either way, it doesn't look to good for John. The Palin strategy blew up in his face.

But as I've always maintained; If voting really made any difference, it would be illegal.


[edit on 7-10-2008 by whaaa]

reply to post by coolieno99


I don't think I was clear about that.
I have no weighs on the black and white matter, but I know some people do. There are a lot of people who are actually offended by his remarks, his actions and the like.

@GamerGal
While that's true, there are roles that the USAF performs in order to prevent this kind of matter. The fact is, is that the response from the AFB's is normally up to 45 minutes, they are slow, that's no where near atiquate to intercept a plane that is closer 20 minutes away from it's target destination.

As we sometimes say in the South...polls are for pole cats...it's always about the ground game and solidifying the base:

Cellphones and Polls

Most younger voters and/or newly registered voters are for Obama, but they are not being polled because they typically don't use landlines.

Older voters tend to be over-polled.

On a side note, I saw the most hilarious thing I've seen yet this politcal season: The most dilapidated, rickety, piece of crap trailer EVER...with a McCain/Palin yard sign out front.

That's some strategery that BushCo and Rove have been able to hocus-pocus getting people to vote against their economic interests.

Do we really want Joe Six Pack in the White House? Will he bring his yard art and trailer hitch? Kidding...I'm kidding.

[edit on 7/10/2008 by kosmicjack]

reply to post by Shugo


Im going to be completely honest here too. Dont you think a vote for McCain is a vote for Palin? Whether he is alive or runs risk of dying?

It goes both ways, so nobody wins.

reply to post by Fromabove


Remember 2 facts:

1. On this date in 2000, Al Gore held an 11 pt. lead on G.W.B. in the national polls. Gore lost.

2. On this date in 1988 Dukakis held a 20 pt. lead on G.H.W.B. in the national polls. Dukakis lost.

Polls mean nothing. The only poll that counts is the one on November 2.

reply to post by southern_Guardian


Yes I do actually Guardian.
In this election I have been more attentive to the Vice Presidential Candidates than the Presidentials. Because when it comes right down to it, the vice presidents are likely to be the ones who finish the term.

Thanks for bringing that up!

Things can change very, very fast. In our last mayoral election, the top two candidates, the incumbent and a challenger, were neck and neck in the polls, and the third guy was significantly behind. Several also-rans were even further back. The day before the election, the polls said it was too close to call between the top two. The third guy ended up winning.

I think this election is going to be really close, just like the last two have been. My gut feeling tells me that McCain will win, because if I were an uber elite rich guy, he's the one I'd want to win, and it's the elite that seem to have all the cards in their hands. My gut doesn't really prove anything, but I don't think anyone can really be sure who's going to win until they've won, and maybe not even then, like in 2000.

I heard a talk show host today on the radio complaining about the mass distribution of the DVD "Obsession". Funny how it is happening now, considering it is about two years old. I think if people actually watched it (doubt it) and got all worried about Muslims, McCain could have a chance.

reply to post by AndrewTB


I have to add another web site that is doing a really amazing job at crunching the poll numbers. I had forgotten the name, otherwise I would have mentioned it earlier.
www.fivethirtyeight.com...

Thanks to the Colbert Report having one of the creators as a guest last night, I remembered the name.

fivethirtyeight has Obama with an 89.2% chance of winning the election. This is before last night's debate, and the new polls...

Like I said previously, I think the media is doing a good job at projecting parity in this election, but I think overall Obama is crushing McCain. They just don't want to lose the next 4 weeks of ad sales.
DocMoreau

Originally posted by DocMoreau
reply to post by AndrewTB

 

I have to add another web site that is doing a really amazing job at crunching the poll numbers. I had forgotten the name, otherwise I would have mentioned it earlier.
www.fivethirtyeight.com...

I dont agree with you on the media. Thanks for the link though. Its fun to tinker around with these things and see how accurate they turn out to be.