Nuclear event survival chances

reply to post by In nothing we trust


Good question, and alot of good responses. After reading the John Titor stuff, and seeing the things that he was seeing start to materialize (although a much bit later than he said it would), I've been wondering where I should by a house or build one where there would be very little to worry about as far as fallout and stuff when the scripted stuff wants to play itself out.

(please note: I do not post by choice. I am under severe distress 24/7 from anomalies [aliens, time travelers, or whatever it is] and am forced to make these types of posts. Before this "severe distress" began, I did not bother to join ATS.)

Originally posted by ModernDystopia
A 10kt package set off in NYC would obliterate the city, take out parts of NJ and would also take out Staten Island and parts of Long Island. The fallout would be even worse.

I think it would just wipe out wall street.

Originally posted by In nothing we trust

Originally posted by Northern Raider
Providing you survive the blast ( just like surviving a blast from any bomb) and you get into shelter before any fallout starts to fall you have a reasonable chance of surviving.

This may sound like a stupid question, but if you are far enough away, say 15 miles from a 10kt surface blast, do you think you might be able to hop in your car and outdrive the fallout?

[edit on 5-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

Definitely. All you have to do is drive cross wind. Using the links provided earlier, a 10KT bomb will level everything about a 1/4 miles from the hypocenter, cause catastrophic damage about 3/5 miles from the hypocenter and moderate damage about 2 miles from the hypocenter.

meyerweb.com...

Originally posted by ModernDystopia

Originally posted by In nothing we trust
I think it's gonna be 10KT

How big of a package would that be?

Anyone else want to make a guess as to the yield?

[edit on 4-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

A 10kt package set off in NYC would obliterate the city, take out parts of NJ and would also take out Staten Island and parts of Long Island. The fallout would be even worse.

No, if a 10KT bomb detonates at Wall Street it takes out downtown New York and only downtown New York. Of course, fallout will spread according to the wind direction.

meyerweb.com...

Originally posted by MasterRegal
No, if a 10KT bomb detonates at Wall Street it takes out downtown New York and only downtown New York.

It would definitly be a down day for stocks.

Most ICBMs & Sub based devices have multiple (usually 3 - 5) warheads.
Also most are variable yield so they can be dialed in between 10 KT & 200 KT.

2 - 3 miles from explosions in that range, you might have a chance if your roof doesn't crush you while it's on fire. A basement is near useless as whatever is upstairs will now be down on top of you. Your best shot is if you are surrounded by concrete, especially facing directions of airports, harbors & other targets. A good ceramic floor above you could aid in heat dispersal too, though the tiles could very well be flying at you like a million ninja stars!

5 miles, likely short term survival, cuts out the ying yang and real possibility of bleeding to death from cuts. Burns could be 3rd degree over 90+ % depending on where you are, upstairs or down. Medium to heavy dose of radiation. Leukemia is in your future if you are lucky enough not to die in the following days after.

10 miles, cuts from window glass (at any yield) burns (20KT +) blunt force trauma (30KT+) moderate to severe burns, cuts (50+KT).

At 10 miles with a 200KT (average yield deployed), there would be nothing you could do really. In some way you are going to get a mild dose of rads, debris trauma, cuts, medium burns.

The only thing I can suggest is live 100+ miles from all airports, military assets, etc if you want 90% possibility of short to mid term survival. Other than that, pray you are directly under the blast.

Some other thoughts:

In most major centers with at least one military asset, there will be multiple strikes in different areas to effect the most damage. All cities with airports capable of supporting any type of jet are sure to be struck at least once, 2-3 times if its known for even medium military traffic.

Believe it or not, they will only be after infrastructure, so the densely populated areas in a WAR will not necessarily be targets unless they are near military / governmental assets if they are going with typical nukes. If you have 2 or 3 assets in an area, the initial warhead will be focused at the center point of all three and detonated anywhere from 1000 ft to 3000 ft, depending on your terrain. Air burst allows for more destruction in the form of two actual blast waves and a wider area covered. "death from above"

If it comes to WW3, though, I think we will see more neutron bombs than anything, so structures might be ok, just that life in the area is exterminated which means a really high atmospheric burst and no major blast wave to knock stuff over. The goal will then be to invade and take over intact assets.

Who knows!

In either case it's the initial radiation that you have to worry about, not physical damage. Those crushed in an instant by their homes suddenly bursting in on them will be the lucky ones. By the time they are on fire the debris would have likely knocked them unconscious and they would have crossed the rainbow bridge in a split second "WTF?". LOL.

[edit on 5-10-2008 by Atlantican]

Originally posted by Atlantican
Most ICBMs & Sub based devices have multiple (usually 3 - 5) warheads.
Also most are variable yield so they can be dialed in between 10 KT & 200 KT.

I think you mis-understood the scenareo.

2 or 3 low yield devices (10KT) placed at strategic locations is all that is needed to destroy the world economy.

The question is what are you're chances of surviving the intial blast and resulting fall-out.

The thread is titled nuclear EVENT survival chances NOT nuclear WAR survival chances.

[edit on 5-10-2008 by In nothing we trust]

I forgot to add:

If it is a ground burst, where the device is actually on the ground or even a couple floors up, the blast isn't much of a worry beyond a mile but the fallout will be more devastating over a larger area as the blast wave doses everything a mile from ground zero and shoots most items up and away. Everything that is physically destroyed becomes either vapor or dust / ash and is carried with the winds until it falls to the ground again.

In either case, if you survive a blast you might want to stay absolutely still for at least a few days, if you can find sealed quarters within 10 minutes. A week to 2 weeks would be best before you start scavenging in an UNAFFECTED area. If you kick up dust and inhale it you are screwed.

A low yield 5- 10 KT would be the same, only a narrower diameter of immediate effects. 5kt - 5 or so city blocks would be hot ruins and then the fallout issue as stated in my last post.

1KT per city block is a good guide if you want to know the actual vaporization zone or area of certain near instant death. Multiply that by 5 for the lower risk effects / mild cuts / burns etc. Multiply that by 10 for near certain survival (if you aren't in the wind's path) with minor cuts etc.

In either case, if you survive a blast you might want to stay absolutely still for at least a few days, if you can find sealed quarters within 10 minutes. A week to 2 weeks would be best before you start scavenging in an UNAFFECTED area. If you kick up dust and inhale it you are screwed.

Just the thing you do not want to do. You would have at least a half hour before the fall of fallout because the heat would carry 98% strait up in the air and it would take at lest a half hour before it cooled enough to start falling in great amounts. plus it would take a amount of time depending on distance from the blast before the wind carried it over you. Get cross or up wind quick. get to the UNAFFECTED area and don't get exposed.
only shelter in place if you have no option.


The most dangerous bombs would be terrorist bombs.

1 likely no warning.

2 ground level detonation, dirty.

3 would target a city.

The good thing about terrorist bombs (if anything about nukes could be called good.)

1 if homemade likely be small and/or not go full yield.

2 if stolen dial a yield military weapon almost always will go off at the lowest yield. this is the default yield and it take 2 codes to get a military weapon to go at full yield.
One to get it to detonate and one to set the yield.
If you bypass the detonate code it will make the yield code inoperable and default to lowest yield.

2a There is a good chance that bypassing the military detonate code a nuke will not go off nuclear at all and just be a dirty bomb or eject the pit.

Now bombs from other countries.

1 with the US nuclear arsenal about 10% will fail to launch. other countries the number will be higher.

2 about 10% of the US missiles will fail to guide to target. other countries will be higher.

3 about 10% of the US missiles will fail to detonate. other countries will be higher.

That means that 30% of the US arsenal will not hit there target.
and for high priority target there will be two or more warheads.

This means the the priority of the target corresponds to how hard it will be hit. Military targets will be hit by there capability to return fire.
nuke weapons sites and command and control sites first.
non nuke military sites last priority.

This is good because a enemy is going to target there best most reliable missiles at targets that limit a retaliatory attack.

This is due to the limited number of nuclear weapons by weapons control treaties
72.14.205.104...:U2gPbTdzHHUJ:www.referenceworld.com/mtm/coldwar/sample%2520docs/SALT%2520I%2520and%2520II-final.doc+salt+treaties& hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=6&gl=us
en.wikipedia.org...
en.wikipedia.org...
en.wikipedia.org...

Now do you live near to one of the targets or not???

If not you only have to worry about fallout.
and that will drop by 1/2 every 7 hours.

Most of the population will only have to shelter for 48 hours or less.
(PS the gov civil defence says two weeks this is to give them time to TAKE control. they are hopping you will be hungery and fallow there commands. )


I am trained by the gov. US Navy advanced NBC defence.
fire department WMD and NBC plus Civil defence training.

I gladly took there training and made my own plans.

reply to post by ANNED


Nice post, but as you probably know I say 10 minutes as advice so everyone will think fast and get to the safest possible place sooner than later. It gives you some lead time and keeps the urgency foremost. I assume 10 good minutes myself. You are more than likely right with the dispersal of 90+ % going up from a ground blast especially with higher yields. In the megaton class that debris can go miles upon miles. The immediate area might be the safest place to be if the winds are more than a breeze and you are upwind.

I believe a salute to you is in order! [

With so many tens of thousands of nuclear warheads in the world, has anyone considered that one of these things could be launched "accidently" if someone thought the respective country was under attack?

It's happened before of course in the Cold War years, and I think in '95 when Yeltsin was close to launching a counter strike for what was later revealed as a Norwegian rocket launch.

Then there's India and Pakistan.

I'd say if anything, a nuclear launch would probably be a sudden event with limited time for planning, especially during a quickly deteriorating political situation.

Chances of survival? Hmm...

reply to post by riggins44


I too bought potassium iodide from Nukepills.com. And they have a good comparison chart of all the emergency kits they sell.