Predict Russia/US Action Against Pirates

Hey guys. As you know Somalian pirates have take a Ukrainian ship hostage with 33 tanks on board along with a crew of a couple dozen sailors.

U.S. has the ship surrounded and Russia has sent a frigate that is on its way and due to arrive in approximately 1-2 more days.

This thread is for your prediction of how you think Russia and/or the U.S. will handle the situation. Feel free to discuss conspiracy/covert ops, such as will there be an attempt at sabotage or special ops intervention etc?

My official prediction: Russia wastes no time or energy negotiating, they will send in an elite Spetznaz unit and waste every last one of the terrorists to make a statement. However I predict the Spetsnaz as usual will waste about half of the hostages if not more.

What do you guys think will happen and how? (military arm chair experts preferred!)

I would assume there may be some non lethal weapons being used on them right now, and in the future. I think that says it all.

I would have to say for all of us, those somalians must be bloody stupid, taking those tanks, thinking they will get away with such a thing.

Maybe thy have watched too many james bond movies, or austin powers.

[edit on 10/4/2008 by andy1033]

I would expect a co-operative effort between SEALS and Spetsnaz. In this way, perhaps they can save the hostages. But in reality, in a anti-terrorists operation, hostages don't count. That is why the Israelis are successful in hostage situations.
What does it profit the terrorist to take hostages, when they know the hostages will be killed right along with the terrorists.
That is not to say the Israelis don't try other options, it's just that they don't negotiate.

Originally posted by kettlebellysmith
I would expect a co-operative effort between SEALS and Spetsnaz. In this way, perhaps they can save the hostages. But in reality, in a anti-terrorists operation, hostages don't count. That is why the Israelis are successful in hostage situations.
What does it profit the terrorist to take hostages, when they know the hostages will be killed right along with the terrorists.
That is not to say the Israelis don't try other options, it's just that they don't negotiate.

Sorry but by Israeli's do you mean Russians? To my knowledge the Russian Spetsnaz is by far the most notorious 'non negotiating' unit in the world. Terrorists don't even bother trying any hostage situations in Russia anymore because they know how futile it is, as I said in other threads Spetsnaz will shoot right through the hostages to kill you.

As for the guy that said SEAL/Spetsnaz cooperation, that would be awesome, a dream come true for some of us military enthusiasts between 2 super powers, but I can't see that happening, not with current east/west tensions.
I agree those "pirates" are realllly idiotic. I can't see it any other way than them not having known what the ship's cargo was when they took it. Because if they knew it had 33 Russian tanks on there I doubt they would have ever thrown their lives away like that. Hell I wouldn't doubt if some of the original crew on the ship is already Spetsnaz/Ukrainian covert ops just waiting for their buddies to give them the signal to start the killing.
I would think you don't ship that much cargo $$ without some sort of insurance.

Also if this were an American ship I would think the SEALS would have taken care of those "pirates" long ago already but I think the Americans don't want to risk an international 'incident' because by going in now if the SEALS happen to kill some Ukrainian/Russian hostages by accident then that could worsen tensions. So I'm assuming they are waiting for the Russians to come to relieve them of the responsibility of having to risk it, and let the Russians take out the pirates with possible U.S./SEAL assistance in terms of logistics support but no more than that, in my opinion that is. Plus then the SEALS get to sit on the sidelines and watch the real pros in action.

Ok here is my prediction. The ship will be blown to smithereens.

Originally posted by kettlebellysmith
I would expect a co-operative effort between SEALS and Spetsnaz.

I am not so sure the US and Russia will cooperate in this way i.e. a joint military operation. They may exchange intel, but that'll be it.

As the pirates are killing each other the best policy may be to sit it out and wait. The US are only interested in making sure the arms don't get into the wrong hands so they won't make a move unless this starts to happen - or there is a clear opportunity. The Russian's do not have a great track record in hostage operations so I expect they will sit it out too especially as the frigate they have sent has a single KA-27 helicopter - hardly able to transport a squad of Spetsnaz!

Both will learn from the French who have recent successful experience of releasing ship-bound hostages off the Somali coast with no big fuss.

Regards

The Russians are known for looking up relatives of the hostage takers and cutting off body parts to send to the hostage takers till there people are returned.

This is the town that the pirates are operating out of.
very small and very isolated.
Latitude, Longitude: (5.349889452094301, 48.53442192077637)

If it had been a American ship a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)could take the town overnight and leave it deserted
en.wikipedia.org...

let a seal team take the ship at the same time then call in a B52 arclight strike.
www.thefirearmsforum.com...

And turn the town into a moonscape.

No more base town for the pirates to operate from and that group of pirates dead or in american hands.

I don't know how it wil end, simply because I don 't think like the psy-ops people who IMO created this incident.

Some points off the cuff to consider.
The ship is approximately 22 feet from water to lowest part ( amidships ) of the gunwale. The fearsome attackers approached aboard rubber rafts.
The ship was probably moving at about twenty knots. How do these people get aboard ? Does somebody throw down a ladder ?

One boat is steel, huge - with the people aboard looking like they stand on the parapets of a castle. One boat is small , rubber -and the people aboard look very vulnerable, at best.

One boat is about 15,000 horse power. One is abot 150.

And so on. I think this will end exactly as it was designed to. I just hope the design doesn 't include a confrontation between Americans and Russians.

Originally posted by andy1033


I would have to say for all of us, those somalians must be bloody stupid, taking those tanks, thinking they will get away with such a thing.


[edit on 10/4/2008 by andy1033]

Or maybe they heard about there friends getting the ransom money from a ship held up last month and thought they'd get there's

[edit on 5-10-2008 by Pockets]

One thing is to bring back the "Q ship" - tramp ship carrying concealed
armament and specially trained crews. First used by british in WWI to
lure U boats to surface where would be sunk by gunfire. Germans
modified tactic to use fast, heavily armed merchant ships as raiders
to hunt down and ship British merchant shipping during both world wars.

Take an ordinary looking merchant ship, mount hidden 50 mg and 25mm
bushmaster cannon with MK 19 automatic 40mm granade lauchers and
some anti tank missile launchers. Add some Navy Seals. Troll area
where pirates are operating. When emerge to attack BLAST "EM

Repeat as needed. Then locate land bases operate from and shell
location.

reply to post by ANNED


You are advocating the killing off of an entire town. Killing scores of women and children.

You are saying that the town should be destroyed because the relatives of the pirates live there.

You are a disgusting individual. You already know that.

My guess is that between this ship and the Iranian ship (where the pirates got sick and died when exposted to the cargo) I'm guessing there is a ton of things going on behind the scenes.

I'd guess that, in some form or fashion both will be dealt with and that we'll probably never know for 100% sure excatly what or how it went down.

reply to post by Frogs


the iranian ship that sailed from a CHINESE port and is going nowhere near iran

that iranian ship?

Originally posted by Harlequin
reply to post by Frogs

 

the iranian ship that sailed from a CHINESE port and is going nowhere near iran

that iranian ship?

Yes - that is the one. The one discussed in this thread.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The The MV Iran Deyanat that is owned and operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL).

Yes, it did sail from a Chinese port but it is an Iranian ship curretnly (last I read) in the hands of the pirates. Some of whom got sick and died afterward according to the stories.

But, there seems to be lots of speculation around it - so who knows just what the real deal is with it. So, I'd guess its something that the US would at least want to check out to see what's going on.



[edit on 5-10-2008 by Frogs]

[edit on 5-10-2008 by Frogs]

Russia will let the US NAVY take it down. SEALs, and then the Russians will board for pics.

The Kenyans or Ukrainians should be doing it. Russia is probably laughing at both those countries. Ukraine Russia, in fact the two countries are quite unfriendly at least with the current Ukrainian government.

news.bbc.co.uk...

The BBC has seen evidence suggesting that the Ukrainian ship being held by pirates off Somalia is carrying weapons and tanks destined for South Sudan.

Let me just say that whatever happens, I hope the pirates get professionally owned. For so long, dumb entertainment franchises have glorified the pirate, such as Pirates of the Caribbean and actors like Johnny Depp. What's next, are they going to glorify terrorists?

Whether its Russian naval Spetznaz, Navy SEALs, or Marine Force Recon, I hope the pirates see the best U.S. special operations has to offer.

reply to post byTruthTellist

If you read my post.
"First have the marines clear the town."
hopefully with out the pirates on the ship knowing what is going on.

If it had been a American ship a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)could take the town overnight and leave it deserted

And turn the town into a moonscape.

You are advocating the killing off of an entire town. Killing scores of women and children.

Never advocated by me, your imagination is working over time.
my statement still stands "have the marines clear the town then turn it into a moonscape."

You are saying that the town should be destroyed because the relatives of the pirates live there.

No because the pirates live there and use it as a base.

Plus as the pirates watch the town disappear it would make the perfect distraction for the navy seals to board the ships and take them.

I stand by what I said
Not what your claiming i said.


[edit on 9-10-2008 by ANNED]

[edit on 9-10-2008 by ANNED]