The Cell Phone Polling Gap: An Artificially "Close" Race?

The Cell Phone Polling Gap: An Artificially "Close" Race?

www.huffingtonpost.com

Despite Barack Obama's recent surge in the polls, the media maintain -- as they have throughout the summer -- that the race is close, and will be so on Nov. 4. And that may be true.

But imagine if Obama's upward climb in opinion polls right now were not just a few points. Imagine if it were seven or eight or more.

The media narrative might be clear: unfolding landslide. With that would come the momentum, the fundraising potential, the kind of late-election heat on the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket that can induce panic.

And given recent insights into polling data and cell phone users, it's entirely possible that the only thing between a decisive Obama lead coming into October and more election-as-nail-biter boilerplate is the vast leftwing wireless network.

The Pew Research Center's recent report on the issue asserted that polling by landline telephone may undercount Barack Obama voters by perhaps 3 percent. It's one of the first pieces of conclusive evidence on the issue. But this is a young science, in a rapidly changing communications landscape where mobile-only households are multiplying. So who knows if that's undercounting the undercounting?

Statistically, Obama voters are more likely to be part of the younger, cell-only set. Cell users under 30 go left in a big way: 62 percent Democrat to 28 Republican. And cell-only voters of all ages go for Obama over McCain by 19 percent, 55 to 36 percent, according to Pew's most recent survey.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Yes I know this is a blog but it brings up a very interesting point that in my opinion does not go far enough.

Its not just a matter of who gets polled but who gets counted. Generally speaking at the current time Obama is ahead in most of the polls with a few ties. The thing is though that polls do not; as this article points out, do not take into account people (such as myself) who just have cell phones, but also they don't take into consideration either first time voters or college students.

Consider that... they do not poll first time voters, college students or people with just cell phones.

It is my gut level feeling that this so-called close election is not even close because while, people with just cell phones, is not a demographic per say... college students, who are heavily in favor of Obama and first time voters whom the Democrats are out registering over republicans 2 to 1 are a huge unpolled block and will probably determine this race far more than so-called swing states.

www.huffingtonpost.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 2-10-2008 by grover]

It is great information, and thanks for bringing it up!

May I suggest that you post it over in the Education and Media Forum as well?

It's so fascinating to see the old system try and encompass new technology. I think we should keep our eyes on places like this where the means that the powers that be are used to using simply can't keep up, because there may be a way to ensure real change by using them.

Nice find (albeit a blog).

-adb

These were my own suspicions long ago, also think of this, many people polled never answer their own home phone when a call they see come up either recognized as a telemarketer, unknown, or bill collection.

I really do think the polls are off and more than likely showing a closer gap than who will actually turn out to vote and possibly cause a landslide, in the face of the debates and detectable slide in McCain's poll numbers I do not think we will be waiting days to find out who won, of course as usual there will be voting contraversy and charges of manipulation etc on both sides but the gap will be just too big for it to be notable, that is my own prediction.