reply to post by Truther
It's difficult to make predictions about what is going to happen because there is so much that is unknown about the current financial crisis (e.g.,
counterparty risks, derivative exposures, values assigned to mortgage backed securities (MBS), etc...).
Perhaps this whole thing is the work of the NWO, but perhaps it is just the result of human greed run amok, starting with the 'brilliant' idea that
mortgages could be bundled together and sold like stocks (i.e., securitized). Banks and brokers made money on these transactions (via fees) and
played the idea for all it was worth, not stopping until they had signed up the last deadbeats they could put in a mortgage.
When the party was over, they were left holding a lot of MBSs themselves (that's how 'brilliant' they really were). The problem is: if they mark
them to the value that other institutions are willing to pay for them, then they wipe out the equity of their shareholders--and they also have to
raise capital to meet their reserve requirements.
So banks are clinging to the cash that they have, not only to bolster their reserves but also for fear of loaning it to other banks who might go bust.
The fact that nobody knows what the other bank is really holding or counterparty to is the transparency issue.
What's also unclear and inconsistent is what happens when a bank or broker dealer fails. In some cases bondholders have been wiped out. In other
cases, only the shareholders were screwed. In any case, it's a bad situations for the bankers. They are not doing well at all. The only ones who
are really making out are the CEOs who were given absurd employment contracts. The boards of directors who granted these deals should be tarred and
feathered--but that's an entirely different thread.
Why should we care about how the banks and brokers are suffering? Because we depend on that industry to keep our ourselves and our employers healthy.
If your employer can't get a loan to finance a project, they may lay you off. If you can't get a loan to buy a car, you may have a real
problem--not to mention the car dealer who is trying to stay in business. Businesses will cut back and lay people off. These people will buy less
from retailers who will lay off even more people. And so on it will go as we spiral down into recession or even depression.
The people who rail against the 'bailout' don't seem to realize the effect it may have not just on them, but their friends and parents and kids.
The bailout is really for them.
Don't get me wrong, I think the bonuses on Wall Street over the last few years were obscene. They gave as much as 2/3rds of the earnings of the
firms to the employees in the form of bonuses. That is ridiculous and a bubble if ever there was one. I'd also like to see people prosecuted for
their role in bringing this on us. But we clearly need to do something to avert disaster and the bailout is as good a plan as I've heard so far.
Note: the Fed has been very careful to not create inflation with their actions so far. Only the stimulus package appears to have been inflationary.
If the Fed / Treasury can sell $700B in bonds, they will avoid expanding the money supply (and hence creating monetary inflation) even with the
bailout. In other words, if enough folks send in $700B to the Fed (in exchange for IOUs called bonds), then the Fed / Treasury can simply inject that
money into the banks. No money is created--it just changes hands.
And the dollar has been going UP relative to other currencies as money returns home (i.e., the rich and institutions go to cash).
The real problem: assets (houses) are overpriced and risk is underpriced (rates too low). If you had $2M, would you be willing to buy four mortages
paying 8% interest?
There is a lot more to say but lucky for you, I am out of space!