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Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 pct

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posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 04:19 PM
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Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 pct


www.upi.com

RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) -- A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.

"We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a "Panic of 2008."

"The bigger they are, the harder they'll fall," he said in an interview with New York's Hudson Valley Business Journal.
(visit the link for the full news article)




posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 04:19 PM
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This would send ripples throughout the globe.

I am not at all surprised by a 90% drop, I mean they didn't let the bubble burst or deflate for too long and they are doing everything to make it worse.

So my friends, the question is, which is worse?

A) Protest, maybe get beaten by cops and imprisoned for a few days
B) Do nothing, and live in a 5th world country with civilians fighting for food against each other.

Seriously, it's time for everyone to rise up and do something.

www.upi.com
(visit the link for the full news article)



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 04:39 PM
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If we are fighting for food, who's going to feed the rich??? I think the poor will eat the rich when it comes down to it...



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 04:46 PM
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Riddle me this, if the economy fails how would gold be of use at all? Why would it be worth so much? Wouldn't demand drop for gold, thus causing the price to fall? Forget the purchasing power of the dollar, relative to measured inflation over the past 200 years gold is flat. Anyhow, a 90% plunge is unlikely, especially overnight, to many countries, too many central banks have a vested interest in keeping the dollar a relatively strong currency. A 90% fall over an extended period of time would be possible, however before it reached that point it would be highly likely that taxes would be raised to pay off the debt causing dollar strength, treasuries would sell off and the higher yield would cause their to be less dollars, causing the dollar to gain strength. But yeah, let's ignore economics for a second, panic!



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 05:01 PM
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I was about to say it wuld be a good time for anyone with a lot of cash to convert to Euros, but really if the dollar falls that much, the domino effect that would crash the entire worlds econmic system would come into play so there really would be no need. The coming one world currency will be here soon. Be ready to take the mark everyone.



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 05:03 PM
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The US does not want to pay its debt so if the dollar collapses the debt becomes tiny too. Not sure the rest of the world will be happy when they realize their savings are worth nothing, if the dollar collapses there really could be a war on US soil and Russia has positioned itself already....still think Iran is evil? Still worried about terrorists? The US people would starve too but they don't count. Putin is urging Russians to buy dollars because he does not want the dollar to collapse.....if the gangsters running the US, Britain and Israel decide to let the dollar collapse then the US will be invaded, it will cease to exist over night, China, Russia and other countries OWN the US right now. It's not pretty but that is what happens when your country is run by a mob of zionist military junkies probably on crack coc aine....enjoy!



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 05:23 PM
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reply to post by princeofpeace
 


question
someone wrote in comments in that site's article that the dollar would be the last standing currency.

opinions?



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 05:24 PM
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I believe Gerald Celente has said in the past that the Euro will colapse if the dollar goes. IIRC, he suggested the Yen & the Swiss Franc, but urged caution around any currency acquisition, prefering gold or, barring that, silver.

He's a smart dude & very interesting to listen to on C2C.



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 05:56 PM
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Gold is an illusion that the few use against the many. It's a metal. You can't eat it, you can't cover yourself with it, it will not protect you.

But morons will always exchange items of real value for it. Use that knowledge wisely. Lest you become the fool dying atop a heap of gold.



posted on Sep, 23 2008 @ 06:31 PM
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Originally posted by yellowcard
Riddle me this, if the economy fails how would gold be of use at all?

Gold has been used as a unit of exchange since before Jesus walked in Jerusalem. It has kept its store of value longer than any other type of unit used for exchange. Yes, there were large discoveries of gold in the new world which led to inflation in certain countries, but this is because the discovery was never anticipated. And since, there is nothing else, as far as a new continent goes to be discovered, gold shall be and will continue to be a better unit of exchange than, fiat. Since we cannot create gold, and finding NEW gold is an expensive venture which may outweigh its intrinsic value, we can expect that the value of gold will hardly EVER LOSE much of its value.

Gold can be used to peg our monetary unit, as it was done in the past. This will curb government spending, inflation, and make the population as well as businesses better off.




Why would it be worth so much? Wouldn't demand drop for gold, thus causing the price to fall?
If the economy collapses that does not mean all debts are wiped-out, people will still will want to be paid with something, also trade will continue. A barter system of trade does not work, so the oldest form of currency will be the one Market will as always will prefer, thus people are hedging their wealth by buying gold. Clear example is the value of gold has increased the last few days. Investors are voting with their feet on the fiat currency. They know what this bail-out means; more infusion of fiat into the system, thereby diluting people's wealth, so investors are trying to maintain the value of their wealth in a commodity that has been proven over time to be more reliable than the empty promises fiat backers give. And so as with any good, as demand INCREASES as it has been, prices must rise so no shortages are created. (see chart below)

Grey line represents demand (Do), thus a shift in the demand to right of the chart (see green arrow to D1) increases the price of the good, in our case gold to the new equilibrium price.




Forget the purchasing power of the dollar, relative to measured inflation over the past 200 years gold is flat.

Yes, that's true, but that's because fiat money has been used throughout the world as the unit for exchange, driving down the demand for gold as a means of exchange. I don't understand your argument of "ignoring" the purchasing power of the dollar. The purchasing power is used to determine the relative prices of goods that the dollar could purchase from one year as apposed to another. This is clear example of the increase of supply of dollars thus plummeting the purchasing power of the dollar. Thus when you increase the supply of any good, (in this case dollars) and the demand is still the same, the price (or PP) goes down.

Also, I think this chart is quite relative to our discussion, as you can see the purchasing power of the dollar has already plummeted from its initial value. It has declined as you can see, every single time it was removed from its convertibility to gold, much worse it has decline at a faster rate after that scumbag Nixon closed the gold window back in the early seventies.






Anyhow, a 90% plunge is unlikely, especially overnight, to many countries, too many central banks have a vested interest in keeping the dollar a relatively strong currency.
I wouldn't say it is IMPOSSIBLE if the dollar continued to decline in its value, certainly if the other Central Banks wanted to maintain our currency, it would call for a collective intervention in the foreign exchange markets. And I'm not sure Central Banks around the world are willing to buy up our dollars at the cost of having their currency drop in value. If any Central Bank wanted to prop-up our dollar then they would have to purchase our currency while selling theirs, thus causing their country to devalue their currency at the risk of causing internal inflation. I doubt many countries want to risk having inflation in order to save us.




A 90% fall over an extended period of time would be possible, however before it reached that point it would be highly likely that taxes would be raised to pay off the debt causing dollar strength, treasuries would sell off and the higher yield would cause their to be less dollars, causing the dollar to gain strength.
Are you sure it's a great time to raise taxes? Our 401ks are in the crapper, some of us may not have a job in the near future, we have inflation, foreclosures are going up, and those of us that own homes are watching the value of our homes drop. I don't think anybody is going to raise taxes in the near future, not in this economy.




But yeah, let's ignore economics for a second, panic!
I don't think people are ignoring economics. We have a choice:

1) let this painful recession happen, with its failures, CRASHES and sure we may have 10 to 12% unemployment. But the recovery will be quicker.

or we can listen to the two corporatists Bernake and Paulson. (see below)

2) To start the money presses and inflate the currency and risk stagflation, (both unemployment and inflation) and make everyone else in this country that's 300 million people poorer, and distort the ability of companies to forecast accurate rates of return for their investment thereby impeding it, and causing less production and more unemployment, making the recovery longer.

The choice is OURS...





[edit on 24-9-2008 by Gateway]



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 09:41 AM
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What to do if the value of the USD plunges? Buy gold? Maybe.

I'll pass on what I've learned from talking to people in this part of the world who lived through WWII and its aftermath. Specifically, my wife's godmother (who is now in her nineties) told me that when she was living here under the Nazi occupation, various items like bread, coffee, tobacco and alcohol were either scarce or simply not available on the open market.

Most of the time, people made do with bread which was 40% sawdust, ersatz coffee made from roasted chicory nuts, "tobacco" from various leaves (not maryjane), and over-proof slivovitz if any was to be had. (Plum brandy, mainly home-distilled in Moravia and which btw is often excellent stuff.) However, on some occasions, people in that time were just like people now: they wanted something special.

Those who had such goods were often willing to accept gold in exchange. An 18k gold ring would buy you a fair-sized loaf of bread, an ounce of tobacco (maybe), a smallish tin of real coffee, or a bottle of vodka. I don't mean you'd get all of those for one average gold ring; generally you'd get one or two of those items. It just depended on supply and demand.

The sellers were willing to sell because they had ample supplies to meet their own needs and also contacts to either (a) buy items from military mucky-mucks who could acquisition them, or (b) get them via smuggling routes. So, knowing that eventually the war would be over and peace would break out, they set themselves up nicely. Cynics could say that they were profiting from people's misfortune. Well, yes in way they were, but for one thing, they didn't start the war, and for another, people were often glad to find anyone who would accept a now-useless bauble or ring in exchange for something they could actually use to make themselves feel a little better -- something they craved. Your gold rings are little comfort when you're longing for just a few hours of escape, where you can share some drinks and a smoke and eat real bread and drink real coffee that you haven't tasted for maybe three or four years or longer. In other words, the sellers were typically people who had seen the writing on the wall and prepared for what what was coming well in advance.

About the possible "plunge" of the dollar: if my memory isn't totally gone, three years ago one US dollar was worth about 35 - 40 Czech crowns. Today, it's worth 16.5 crowns, and with a little inflation thrown in, even those fewer crowns don't buy what they did three years ago. The British pound (GBP) was worth around 42 crowns about a year ago. (Three years ago there were over 50 crowns to one GBP) Today, one GBP is worth 30.5 crowns. So, the USD has already lost more than 50% of its value against my local currency in a relatively short time and the GBP around 40%. Not a "plunge", by any means, but one heck of a drop. Bad for you and bad for us as well...

I had a fair number of GBP invested on term deposit on automatic rollover and I hate to think about how much I've lost since the dollar/GBP slide began.
I hung on to them in the hope that things could not get worse. Clearly my hopes were both forlorn and foolish. So on Monday, after the announcement of this $700 billion "rescue" I went in to the bank and pulled all my GPB's out and converted them to crowns. If the dollar plummets so will the pound and Czech crown, but at least I can use crowns here to start buying up coffee, tobacco, spirits and other things that people crave and that have a long shelf life. There will be a small amount of lag and a chance to buy up supplies before the locals realize how bad things are, the real panic sets in and prices go ballistic. I won't buy up on "craved" items because I want to make a pile of gold, but because the relatively small amount I can afford to purchase can be swapped for bread, rice and other harder-to-store essential supplies if the need arises.

They're also useful for bribes. In this part of the world that's a factor.

Not kidding.

Could the USD plunge 90% in a short while? I'm not an expert so I don't know. However, while I don't see the writing on the wall I can envision a moving hand waiting, stylus poised...

Mike



[edit on 24/9/08 by JustMike]



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 09:50 AM
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As stated, Celente has been on C2C at least 10X's in the last year with his trend scenario. He's spot on with what is happening right now. I'd be hesitant to bet against him..........



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 10:13 AM
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Better to hold a "worthless lump of metal" than a worthless piece of paper.



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 10:32 AM
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Besides,
Man can not live on bread alone.
Chicks Love Gold and Diamonds./...

My worry is investments that will not mature for a few months.
Hope the Washingtons aren't devalued to Lincoln coppers by the time I an liquid.



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 10:38 AM
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I had never heard of Gerald Celente before this.

I went to his website and saw this interesting list of client endorsements:

Gerald Celente's smash hit keynotes — presented to business audiences, government officials and dignitaries around the world — are guaranteed to bring down the house.

Honestly, there is a smell of theater and drama to the way this guy presents himself.

I'm calling this one *wild-ass-guess-fear-mongering-for-personal-gain-prediction*.




[edit on 24-9-2008 by loam]



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 10:41 AM
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Honestly, there is a smell of theater and drama to the way this guy presents himself.
 


Go on Youtube an listen to him on C2C.............Yes there is some drama to his presentation, but you can't pick apart his Historical perspective or trend accuracy...........
.02c



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 10:46 AM
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Gold isn't "just some metal," either. There's a lot of interesting facts surrounding gold that explain why man has always held it.

-It is chemically inert
-It has a high degree of electrical conductivity
-It is the most maleable of all metals
-Gold can be hammered into paper thin sheets
-Gold is almost impenetrable by radiation (making it more effective than even lead)
Source: gold.yabz.com...

Since it is an element, it can neither be created nor destroyed. The value



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 10:50 AM
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reply to post by Gateway
 


Thanx for the explaination. It seems with the departure of paper money gold's price would rise since we'll have to use it. I think this can be seen as far as the middle east having to pay gold to finance their war effort and the drop in oil prices being very much the the same as the downward trend of the dollar. It's just that the problem is, paying trillions of dollars worth of debt, with trillions you don't own.

Thus, certainly you hope you get a Gold line of credit. This place is broke, break out the lunar dust. I hear mars dust is gonna save us


I'm just a realist but why shouldn't the economy be bolstered by dirt we dug up from out of space?



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 11:46 AM
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Burdman, this was one the weakest posts of yours I've ever seen.


Originally posted by burdman30ott6
-It has a high degree of electrical conductivity


So do silver and copper



-Gold can be hammered into paper thin sheets


Ever seen aluminum foil?



-Gold is almost impenetrable by radiation (making it more effective than even lead)


Nonsense. There are no things impenetrable by radiation. Tungsten has shielding properties similar to gold, and so does depleted uranium.


Since it is an element, it can neither be created nor destroyed.


(a) The entire contents of the Periodic Table are elements
(b) Elements can be created and destroyed, last time I checked. In case you doubt that, open a physics book.



posted on Sep, 24 2008 @ 12:04 PM
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reply to post by buddhasystem
 


Look at the overall picture, though, Buddha. Yes, silver & coper are also conductive, but they are also suceptible to corrosion. Gold can be beaten thinner than aluminum without losing it's cohesion (and it has a significantly higher melting point than aluminum.)

My main point is, yeah for individual applications taken by themselves, gold may not be the best choice. But no other metal combines as many properties & usefullness as gold, which when combined with its scarcity, is what gives it tangible value.



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