Battleground state: Pennsylvania

The polls in Pennsylvania have been switching back and forth for the past few weeks, with Sen McCain gaining and even leading in some polls as of last week. Sen Obama thought this state would be a win, and now will have to spend some time and money here. The state is a must win for Sen Obama. If we see this state go red, Sen McCain will be the next President.
One of the reasons Sen. Biden was picked was to help with the white blue collar vote. Sen Biden has been absent, from the media at least. Gov Palin has been campaigning to get the conservative base in the rural parts of the state. She also is trying to woo former Clinton supporters.
The economic rollercoaster will help Sen Obama immensely, but he has to campaign hard and show what his ideas are. He has to do some very personal campaigning like he should in Ohio. The big cities will be overwhelmingly Obama, but he has to get out the vote. Getting the rural areas to support him will be tricky, but not impossible. This state will go back to the blue column, but it should not be taken for granted.

Obama has made it abundantly clear through his strategy in Ohio that he has no intention of seriously pursuing the rural vote almost anywhere. I believe that Obama feels that his message will not penetrate the prejudices of those who cling to guns and religion (incidentally, I agreed with Obama's comment in that respect, so I'm not making light of it) and that is a major flaw in the Obama campaign. I see this as a highly under-analyzed facet of our present situation of having an African-American making a serious bid for the presidency. The impact of racism has been considered, but the bearing of the anticipation of racism on campaign strategy, and the mistakes that might cause, have been largely overlooked.

reply to post by The Vagabond


That is bad on Sen Obama's part. He needs to get a higher percentage of the rural vote if he wants to take both Pennsylvania and Ohio. Pennsylvania has several large cities and that might be enough, but I think he should reconsider the rural vote.

The McCain campaign has pulled out of Maine and Wisconsin to put in more resources into Pennsylvania and other red states that they have to defend. Sen Obama now has a healthy lead, and Sen McCain wants to try and take it away. Pennsylvania does not have early voting (Ohio does), and if the momentum should shift late in the game, Pennsylvania would be easier to take. The problem with the strategy is people are starting to gel in their opinions, and the Clintons, along with Sen Biden are campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania. The Obama people are not taking anything for granted, especially in this rollercoaster of an election.

I expect Sen Obama to still win Pennsylvania, by 8 points.

reply to post by kidflash2008


Yeah, but then you have John Murtha calling a lot of residents of western Pennsylvania racist or saying they have racial tendencies...not wanting to vote for Obama because he is black. Source

These are also the people Obama insulted with his "bitter" remarks during the primaries. People tend to have long memories in that regard.

I have quit trying to figure out what is going to happen. The polls have Obama's spread anywhere from 2% to 14% nationally. And, we all know how right the polls are from experience.

reply to post by skeptic1


The Obama campaign is going to the rural parts of Pennsylvania. He is learning from his mistakes during the primary. I don't know what they can do about Rep Murtha other than quietly tell him to shut up.

John McCain is trying to take advantage of the fact there is no early voting in Pennsylvania. He may have lost Ohio, and he would need to pick up Pennsylvania. The Obama campaign will work their hardest, and make sure their volunteers get out the vote on Nov 4.

I think the Obama campaign is not letting the polls go to their heads. I remember Gov Thomson of Illinois was running for re-election. The polls had him in a commanding lead. He did not campaign much, and the low turnout hurt him. He still won, but it was a much closer race.

The newest strategy of Sen McCain is to try and win Pennsylvania to make up for losing Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and possibly Nevada. Sen McCain will need a former blue state to make up for a red state loss. Since Virginia is looking bluer every day, Sen McCain has started to make a stronger case in Colorado. With the polls showing a big lead for Sen Obama, Sen McCain has a lot of catching up to do. It will be interesting to see if the strategy changes again to Sen McCain helping out some Senators or Congressmen who are in trouble.