Originally posted by JaxonRoberts
Here's the problem with the 'event' being economic in nature. The projected time of release is 0740 GMT. That's 3:40 a.m. on the east coast of
the US. The market and banks won't be open yet. I hate to say it, but a suitcase nuke attack in the middle of the night seems more likely to me.
If NYC is one of the cities attacked, it will have an economic impact as well.
Good point, that -- about the time factor. (Does make you wonder about that "3 a.m. phone call" thing, though.
However, while the market and banks won't be open to the public, FOREX trade would still be going on, and of course at that time of day (0740 GMT)
the Asian markets have been up and running for some hours. Tokyo, for example, is nine hours ahead of GMT so it would be 1640 local time there (4:40
pm) on the same day when it's 3:40 a.m. in NYC. In Hong Kong it would be 3:40 pm.
Now, the Asian markets haven't yet had a trading day since the "bailout" was passed by Congress on Fri. Oct 3. When they open on Monday Oct 6
they'll have had a whole weekend to digest the import of that piece of legislation, and no doubt the smarter ones (meaning most of them) would also
know about the amendment that was snuck in that allows US banks to keep zero cash reserves -- with all that implies. (It's been extensively discussed
here on ATS and in many other places.) So it's quite hard to say how the Asian markets will react.
But that's just Monday. What they do on Tuesday could partly be a reaction to what Wall St does on Monday (as it reacts to errm...their reaction.)
But if some major Asian-based traders start dumping dollars on Tuesday because of a fear that they'll soon be worthless, then the FOREX people in the
USA will know about it well and truly by the wee hours of Tuesday (US East Coast time).
Have to point out that my statements here shouldn't be taken to imply that I'm giving an expert opinion. I'm not an economics expert, so I just
glean what I can from those who do seem to know what they're talking about. Especially on this site. But with this "Oct 7" question in mind I think
it's important for us to consider the markets outside the US and how they could impact things. (And vice versa, of course.)
I could well imagine a 3 a.m. phone call or two if either the Asian markets start to tank, or dump dollars -- or both. I can also imagine
hastily-called middle-of-the-night meetings of certain high-ups to try and work out what action to take (in such a scenario) before the US markets
open, and whether the US President might even avail himself of the chance to impose martial law as some on threads here have suggested he wants to.
Beats me. Hard to say. A crashing dollar would be very very scary if we could see it coming from what's happening in markets half a world away. It'd
be like watching a tsunami heading for you and knowing that no matter how fast you run, there's no way to escape...
On the other hand, as you say there has been a lot of "chatter" picked up regarding a potential terrorist attack, and from a purely cold-blooded
point of view it would make sense to commit such an act when the target country already has some pretty heavy problems to deal with.
If this Web bot thing has it right, something is going to happen. Certainly, the events of the past couple of weeks lead us to believe that things are
not going to be all hunky dory on the economic front for some time yet.
[edit on 5/10/08 by JustMike]