posted on Sep, 13 2008 @ 12:38 PM
Sen McCain's campaign was going downhill real fast in November of 2007. The pundits thought he would drop out, but Sen McCain knew he would do well
in New Hampshire and focused there with his town hall meetings.
Fast forward to the approaching conventions, and Sen McCain saw a sizable number of disaffected Hillary voters. He waited until the Democratic
Convention was over and everyone was predicting Sen Obama's victory. Sen McCain did something that was incredibly bold and shocked (even the
Republicans) by choosing Gov Palin to be his running mate. The conventional wisdom was Mitt Romney or some other pale male. He energized his
conservative base (a few percentage may have voted for Bob Barr), and even managed to get a good deal of former Hillary supporters (the older white
women). Sen McCain saw a huge surge in his donations, so he will be able to compete in more states.
When the polls are broken down, Sen McCain is trouncing Sen Obama in the white vote. Sen McCain knew he needed the women's vote, or he would be
toast. The picking of Gov Palin, while some say it is pandering, is working.
What can Sen Obama do? He must have more of the town hall type meetings in middle America. He has to really campaign on a personal level, something he
has a big weakness in. He has to explain to the middle class blue collar workers why they should vote for him. He also has to court the Hispanic vote
as Sen McCain will definitely go after them now and remind them of his friendly votes their way. Finally, he must get out the vote. The turnout will
be key in the close races.
Sen McCain is a likable former Vietnam POW, and he will play a more fatherly figure to Gov Palin's motherly and sisterly (to some of us older
I also base my opinion on how the polls are with Sen McCain getting 50% of the support. It is very difficult to take support away in this part of the
game as it is to get the undecided vote. They usually split 50/50, so I can't see Sen Obama benefiting from that vote.