Republican Landslide in November?

The first time I heard Bush speak in favor of more exploration I began to imagine a concept. When oil prices began a massive slide afterwards, that concept became a word. Ever since I first heard of the republican congress's guerilla oil debates and thought, "this reminds me of 94", the same wild, inconcievable, and to be frank almost impossible word has been echoing in the shadows of my mind. When the republicans kept the ressistance going, for day after day, the word sounded louder. When the "celebrity ad" appeared, more voices contributed to the chorus behind my eyes. When Mccain picked palin, the chorus grew to a choir. Whn Obama and the democrats did virtualy everything wrong in response to Mccains pick the choir became a legion. And now I can no longer keep this word in. I cant help but raise its impossible name.

The word is "landslide"

As in republican.

As in the exact reverse of 2006.

Have the voices in my head driven me mad?

[edit on 9/10/2008 by Shazam The Unbowed]

No, not at all. You're beginning to see the fnords.


The "early lead" always melts away during the summer of election year. Happened to Carter, Bush 41, and Kerry.

Basically, people get "candidate fatigue. And so Obama peaked in May. Now, no matter what he does, it won't grab as much press as pictures of Palin's family. Even the negative press means her face, her soundbites, her voice in the public consciousness.

It hasn't helped that Obama has been resting on platitudes up till now. This is the moment when he needs to present his Brave New Plan, and get the press talking about him again. And calling for the surge to come home just wont cut it.

Now the big question is, what would have happened if gas prices had stayed up? Would McCain still be as popular???

Funny, isn't it, how gas prices started mysteriously dropping just before the democrat convention. What was certainly going to have been the major democrat talking point just evaporated on the eve of the convention.

So the bonus question is this: how long after the election do you think prices will stay this low? A year? A month? maybe just a few days. . . . I mean, it really wont matter once the votes are cast. . . .


And funny how that hurricane Gustav, barreling down on New Orleans, just magically evaporated, no? A hurricane that would have deeply embarrased the Republicans just . . . . dissappeared in less than 48 hours. Heckuva coincidence, that.


Lot of what-have you's.

Lot of threads. Lot of threads in the ole Duder's head. . . .
.

This kinda stuck out for me:

Originally posted by dr_strangecraft
And funny how that hurricane Gustav, barreling down on New Orleans, just magically evaporated, no? A hurricane that would have deeply embarrased the Republicans just . . . . dissappeared in less than 48 hours. Heckuva coincidence, that.

You must not live in Louisiana. Just because the news quits talking about it doesn't mean it went away. I can assure you that Gustav didn't just disappear.

Anyway, I think since Obama has already peaked, he doesn't stand a chance. I think the Republicans are going to blast the Dems in this election. Biden, the media, and whoever else can bash Palin until they run out of air but it seems like she can do no wrong. The Dems seem to be desperately swinging for the fence when it comes to bashing Palin and they haven't even come close to hitting one out yet. Everything they throw at her is brushed away by the majority because most of it is unbelievably stupid.

I think since Palin has joined the ticket, the Republicans will win by a landslide in November.



[edit on 10-9-2008 by alkali]

Are you guys just repeating what you hear on the news? Candidate fatigue? As if to suggest that people are going to decide their vote based on how many times the person appears?

You know what happens when I get tired of seeing a candidate? I turn the channel. It doesn't change who I'm going to vote for, because that simply depends on the issues. Most people don't sit around watching the news...

Maybe it's more along the lines of - most politicians are crooks who will say anything to get people to vote for them and are only looking to push themselves further. And the longer they stay in the spotlight they more apparent that becomes.

I can personally name tons of reasons neither of the candidates are worth voting for. Their BS is easy to see. They make broad and general statements and put out corny soundbites. I personally don't see how anyone could vote for either of them.

This thread reeks of talking points and is no different than the crap I see on the media.

Originally posted by badmedia
You know what happens when I get tired of seeing a candidate? I turn the channel.

Yes, but you're . . . . not normal.

This thread reeks of talking points and is no different than the crap I see on the media.

Really? Gee, how insightful. And you're the first person in the whole history of ATS to sneer knowingly at someone else's post without contributing a single damn thing.

way to go.

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Real Clear Politics has an electoral map based upon polls. It goes state by state. Some of the polls are pre-convention, but it's still a good map to be able to get a handle on the electoral count.

Obama is still way ahead.

And yes, I still think Obama will win.

reply to post by Shazam The Unbowed


No, the republican party has done to much damage to the nation in the last 8 years to let people forget that easily.

I do not expect any landslide at all.

But I got the feeling that the powers behind our corrupted system of government indeed want McCain in power in order to finish what Bush started to them.

Money is too good and most of the American people are too gullible, trusting and the tax payer of this nation are so pre programed that they will willingly keep giving their money to the devil itself if comes and speaks pretty in their ears.

I stated this in another thread but it fits here also.
Due to the Wilder/Bradley Effect:

ap.google.com...

Obama needs to be at least 15 points ahead to edge out a victory. Anything less than that he loses. The way it looks now, if the polls remain the same for the rest of the election, Obama is toast and your landslide will become reality.

[edit on 10-9-2008 by Fathom]

Originally posted by FlyersFan
Obama is still way ahead.

I'm not sure that "way ahead" is the best way to describe it. These polls are more like a representation of the media coverage the candidates have received.

Obama is now facing adversity, and handling it poorly, imo.

He's lost his cool, above the fray, persona, and it's looking everyday like he's removing the "mask" of who he wants people to believe he is and exposing himself for who he really is.

I'm convinced PA is going to go for McCain, and if that happens, Obama is in deep trouble.

Originally posted by FlyersFan

Obama is still way ahead.

Are you sure? I thought it took 270 electoral votes to win the election. Obama's "solid plus leaning" numbers no longer total 270. By my calculations, he'd need at least 37 points from the toss-up states to get his 270, which means two out of three recent battlegrounds (Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Florida). Several recent polls have projected that only florida remains a toss-up, with the other two leaning toward McCain.

While it probably won't stay that way for two whole months, Obama would then need to carry every other tossup state to make up for the Loss of OH and PA.

The unpredictable is that not all of the undecided states have equal weight, or are equally undecided. Personally, I think Obama will carry New Mexico for example---but that's only 5 electoral votes, and doesn't really help him that much, nor does it deny a MCain win, either.

Or take Virginia. That state is still marked black on the map you cite (as of Sept 10), but the polls show an ongoing trend toward McCain. If that state began "leaning toward McCain," then the race becomes a dead heat (within 5 points each among solid and leaning states for each respective candidate).

If you're margin of victory is a single state, I wouldn't call that "way ahead."

On the other hand, Obama isn't "way behind," either.

thanks for your thoughts.

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Originally posted by jamie83
I'm not sure that "way ahead" is the best way to describe it.

I mean by the electoral count. If you look at the electoral map that I provided, which is going by polls, Obama still is ahead by a bunch.

Obama is now facing adversity, and handling it poorly, imo.

I fully agree.

However, at this point the electoral map is still in his favor.
What it will look like six weeks from now is anyones guess.

I still think Obama is going to win.
I didn't say that I want him to win.
I'm saying that I think he will win.

The electoral map you referred to is based off voting for dems vs. rep in there primaries reality means nothing. Republican race was not heated many people just didn't even vote. This is why unless a state shows 16 point lead the data is flawed. Ive become very interested in the way polling works and Trust me polls are slanted One way or the other depending on who's conducting the poll and what questions they ask that's why as an experiment im conducting my own poll but without the questions often asked.

Here's what I mean I walk up to john q public:
Question: Do you think the us government spends to much money supporting illegal aliens?
JQ: yes here here illegally and my taxes should not support this.
Question: Well do you think if they are injured and need emergency care that the hospital should turn them away?
JQ: Well no that's ok just wouldn't be right.
Question: Well do you think that there children should have the right to go to school and seek an education Or is it ok to deny them education because there parents choices?
JQ :well no education for children is important

So the interviewer just got the person to concede its ok to pay for there medical and education And news report would read 90 % of americans believe we should support aid for illegals.

Im curios as to how people would vote if just asked 2 questions who and why? And how that would compare to national polls in that regard visit this thread cast your vote this is the ATS election 2008.

ATS election

Regardless of who is right or wrong, or who is better for this Nation, I do believe one thing is for certain, this will be an EXTREMELY close race right up until Election Day. For one, the Democrats will witness a MUCH larger turn-out of Black American voters than has ever been seen since JFK or LBJ (in regards to the Democrat Party).

On the other hand, the Republican Party will have a much larger younger-voter turn out than has been seen in recent times, as well as a greater amount of Women Voters (especially White, Working Moms).

I can state from my experience at the Polling Stations during last Winter's Primaries, that I actually witnessed more Black Voters than I have ever seen before, and in fact more than I even knew lived within my Precinct. The overall Voter turn-out was around average if I recall correctly however.

will there be riots if Obama loses?
kinda like the Rodney King riots?

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

YA I agree... four, eight, twelve or sixteen years of failure to come...

THIS site is the best if you want the real stats from a huge data block.

FOOLED once again - war with IRAN a generation in IRAQ and the end of the middle class...

MAYBE you can learn next time?

THANK YOU ALL and god bless AMERICA

Maybe I wasnt clear enough. I didnt mean "landslide" only in the context of the Presidential race.

I beleive that between Republicans "drill here" message, the now closed "anthusism gap", the success of the surge, and the dems overwhelmingly anti-drilling policy coupled with the overall dissatisfaction with congress will lead to
1) The Mccain Palin ticket winning the presidency,
2) The republicans picking up seats, and possibily a majority in both the house and the senate.

reply to post by Fathom


yeah, and not only that, but he has to battle the electronic voting machines (all errors have favored the republican candidate in the past...all of them!), Jerry meandering, and caging list activities by the GOP...according to many analysts the democratic candidate is behind at least 2 million votes before the election even happens!

But the Republicans wear their religion on their shirt sleeve and that's enough to get all those votes from the hard wood benches on Sunday morning. Guns, God, Gays, and Gorgeous white females who toe the party line...that's what will win this election, not the issues.

By the way, after President Bush, a Republican just like McCain, expelled the United Nations election inspectors, did we ever invite them back? Shouldn't we do so now? And why was it a Republican wanted the election monitors kicked out of the country? Smell a rat? I do too.



[edit on 14-9-2008 by skyshow]

Originally posted by skyshow

yeah, and not only that, but he has to battle the electronic voting machines (all errors have favored the republican candidate in the past...all of them!), Jerry meandering, and caging list activities by the GOP...according to many analysts the democratic candidate is behind at least 2 million votes before the election even happens!

Now, there's a real difference between republicans and democrats. Republicans never blame fraud when they lose; they just try to do better next time. Democrats cannot believe their party is sometimes disliked by parts of the electorate. If they didn't win, then someone else must have cheated!

Gerrymandering (one word, named after a person, a Mass. governor, not a meandering river) was an artform deployed by Democrats themselves. . . as long as they held the majority. But lately they've developed an allergy to it. hmmm.

But the Republicans wear their religion on their shirt sleeve and that's enough to get all those votes from the hard wood benches on Sunday morning.

First, at least some candidates have a religion to wear . . .

Second, my church has padded, comfortable, and modern sectional seating with surround sound. You have some pretty dated assumptions / stereotypes of what christians think and do. No wonder you don't like them; you don't know much about most of them.

Guns, God, Gays, and Gorgeous white females who toe the party line...that's what will win this election, not the issues.

For some people, those are "THE" issues.

So, let's see; if your side doesn't win . . . it's the American people who are at fault, and not a party that doesn't address voters' concerns, or even have any respect for their value system. It's the people's fault, and not a party that is increasingly irrelevant because it's controlled by the elites around the american fringes, who are out of touch with what "their" country wants.

maybe that's it: maybe America is TOO STUPID to be ruled by the Democrats. Maybe they don't deserve any democrat greatness . . . .

Maybe the American people don't deserve tax hikes and government control over everything from education to their right to express a faith in God. Maybe americans haven't earned a government that wants to take away guns once it has let all the criminals out of prison.


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Interesting topic. I think it's too early to tell how close the election will be quite honestly. Part of it will depend on how Obama decides to deal with the addition of Palin to the Republican ticket. I think when the Republicans chose her it simply stopped much of the momentum Obama gained during the recent convention and instead gave momentum to the McCain/Palin ticket. So many things can happen between now and the election. I believe McCain's choosing Palin was a total surprise to most people, and the Democrats had to go back to the drawing board and rethink their strategy for the election. Palin's choice took the wind out of their sails and they have to tread carefully, as I think they know, so as to not do more damage than good when they eventually attack Palin--which they will do. What they don't want to do is to alienate working mothers, when they try to damage Palin's image.
Do I think it will be a landslide? No, I don't. But I think how close it will be can't be determined yet. We still have the Presidential Debates to go, plus the heavy-duty advertising where the two candidates try to damage the other's image, and also whatever "dirt" the media digs up on the candidates can also have an impact.

One thing is for sure, it won't be a boring election cycle this time around, I suspect!

[edit on 14/9/2008 by xtradimensions]

It will be VERY close... if the numbers stay the same.

It shouldn't be close... but a lot of americans are retards, and don't even understand that McCain is lying at 110% and that Palin is just a joke of a VP.

Seriously, when 25% of americans still support Bush... the world really find this disgusting. Those 25% should be flushed down the toilet, it would be better for everyone. At the very least, revoke their votes rights unless they pass a test to see if they know anything about the world. If they fail, NO VOTING RIGHT.

IMO, Obama will win, but it will depend on where Colorado goes.