Major Hurricane Ike

reply to post by Regenmacher

I think you could be right. The newest models show it going straight towards New Orleans. Unless the thing takes a turn North, it's going to pass through the keys and hit the warm sweet spot in the gulf just before heading into Louisiana.

CNN Is showing it going into the gulf for sure. Looks like Florida is going to escape this one, but just barely.



[edit on 5-9-2008 by dbates]

I think we should be giving NOLA back to the sea, it's below sea level, in an area prone to hurricanes. That's not a very wise combination if you ask me.

Originally posted by Shugo
I think we should be giving NOLA back to the sea, it's below sea level, in an area prone to hurricanes. That's not a very wise combination if you ask me.

There was a lot of talk turning New Orleans into just a sea port. Wonder how many millions they have to flush down the proverbial crapper on seawalls, levees and housing reconstruction, before they decided to work with mother nature instead of against her?


Don't Refloat - The case against rebuilding the sunken city of New Orleans
Slate.com

Evening, stormwatchers.

Hanna's giving us some serious rain and a nice, cool, strong breeze today. It's really raining like gangbusters right now! I've been enjoying watching her move through today, and I tried to take some photos of her leading edge approaching us. After dinner I'll upload them from the camera and see if any came out.

As to Ike...Ike is a hot mess.

First and foremost, the 5pm update has him back up to a category 4 hurricane with 135mph winds and pressure at 949. This is supported by aircraft recon throughout the day, so the data is solid. Ike has also grown quite large over the day and the shear that had weakened him last night/this morning is lessening. He is likely to increase his windfield even more in coming days and may approach upper cat 4 levels.

I don't think I want to try and touch his track right now. Some of the models are shifting drastically from run to run which is making him very difficult to forecast. In addition, he has ranged from cat 2 to cat 4 today; the 2 was expected but the 4 was not. I don't know what to make of this storm. I have a gut feeling that the current forecast track taking Ike well over Cuba is too far south, but I have no actual data to back that up...just a straight up gut feeling.
The aircraft recon data is currently being fed into the models, so by tomorrow we may see a different picture emerge. Looks like we're still in "wait and see" mode.

New models are out and they are all pretty much in agreement that Ike is heading into the Gulf of Mexico but I think theyre still not to sure where hes going once he gets there

I live on the Gulf coast in central Florida.
I can tell all of you the weathermen/women cannot predict where a Hurricane will eventually strike.
Remember Wilma?
That storm was heading directly for Tampa and a Cat 5 and the darn thing was on our door step and it turned and hit a few miles south of Tampa!
I've lived here all of my life and experience has taught me to just wait and see.
I'm always prepared so when I know for sure its going to strike where I live I just stay put, be calm and take cover.

[edit on 6-9-2008 by MagicaRose]

The graphic of the models that dbates posted earlier is interesting due to the fact that the model that takes "historical" data of previous hurricanes paths into account as well as the canes current track shows Ike likely hitting Florida in the panhandle. Its the model with the orange lines and orange circles. (CLP)

However, the hurricane computer model that has shown to be the MOST accurate in the Carribean is the GFDL model and that one is headed straight for New Orleans then suddenly turns west towards Texas. Its the dark pinkish line with pinkish triangles.

Just thought I'd add my 2 cents.

IMO, I think it is too early but if I lived in Florida I would have an escape route and emergency kit ready to go.

reply to post by MagicaRose


Yeah, and how long ago was Wilma? 3 years? Really a lot of forecasting models have changed since then, there was a lot that happened after Katrina to make sure "these things don't happen again."

The current models are missing key flight recon data, so prepare for some changes in track at the 5am update. The latest models (as of now) haven't run with dropsonde data yet, and that data could potentially cause some adjustments.

The models with dropsonde data should run overnight tonight, and be fully incorporated into the NHC tracks either at the 5am or 11am update tomorrow.

Visually speaking, Ike's eye is popping out significantly and he's got a heavy ring of convection around his core. What shear is left is being mostly deflected by his "suit of armor." In simple English, Ike is doing very well and may even be strengthening. Flight recon shows the pressure continuing to drop, which is often a sign of strengthening.

As mentioned, Ike has moved away from the moderate to heavy shear he was under and is now in a much more favorable environment. Going forward, the path ahead currently shows little to no shear in store for him. Water temps are high and any cooler water stirred up by Hanna is too far north to affect Ike.

Regardless, all signs currently point to Ike entering GOMEX. Where he goes from there is still an unknown, so everyone from TX to the W coast of FL should be watching him very closely. There's still a lot of uncertainty about the strength of a high pressure system currently holding Ike where he is now. If the high weakens earlier than the models are predicting, Ike's path changes. It could change just a tiny bit, 20 miles or so, or it could change dramatically.

What remains almost a certainty is that Cuba is going to be decimated by this storm. Whether Ike rakes the north coast or whether he traverses nearly the entire country down the middle, there is going to be tremendous damage and loss. Hispanola will also get (may already be getting) rains and wind from Ike, and rain is the last thing needed in this saturated and already heavily-damaged region.


In other news, Hanna gave us quite a scare earlier. EAS went off with a tornado warning this evening, causing us to scamper to the ground floor. The young'n had a few minutes of panic and tears thinking we were doomed, but "Hurricane Hanna Montana" jokes, a snack, and half an hour of tornado-free time calmed everyone down. The wind is still cranking but it looks like the worst of the rain is over. There's some flooding on lower-lying roads and scattered power outages nearby. It seems like we've survived Hanna (Montana).

What happened to the BAM models that they used to use? back in 04-05 it was considered to be very accurate and the GFS and GFDL sucked, often sending the tracks way off away from the others, similar to what the UKMET does now.

Time to get the hurricane supplies and "Hunker Down"! as they love to say here on our local weather casts. Makes for a good drinking game.

They started putting the "Cone of Uncertainty" on Ike when he was about 3,000 miles away, I found that to be slightly amusing because the end of the cone surrounded about 4 states...hehe, talk about uncertainty!

At any rate, I will be watching the local news here (updates about every 5 minutes). Let's all hope it heads for a certain ranch in Crawford Tx.

New models are running and, as expected, there's some shift. It's too soon to say how much, though, as not all are done computing all the computations models, uh, computate. My guess for the 5am is that if there's a shift to the NHC track, it would be slightly north and sooner off of Cuba.

Unfortunately at least part of Cuba looks to be in for some serious weather along with the Turks & Caicos (getting pounded right now) and the southern Bahamas.
After that...I don't know. GOMEX looks pretty certain at this point, but the models are going kind of wacky shortly after Ike exits Cuba. There's concern that, once in GOMEX, the prevailing weather is so calm that Ike may not have much to steer him. This breaks down to potential stall/wandering. This isn't too bad if it happens in the middle of the water, but obviously could be disastrous IF he stalls/wanders near shore somewhere.

In short, Ike is seriously ticking me off today. He needs to make up his blasted mind.

If you've ever wondered what a solid, well formed eye looks like in a hurricane, Ike gives us a real good example in this large image. YIkes!

I just wanted to say that while I don't really post in the hurricane topics much, since I'm not much of a weather expert and I live in California, I read them all the time and find all the information and speculation fascinating, so thank you guys

Latest models put Ike in the north central gulf of mexico on day 5, almost due south of New Orleans.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE
MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

We may be looking at a Texas impact this time around. But it looks like it may miss New Oreleans, unless it were to interact with something that's not there now.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

NHC

An observation station in the Turks recorded sustained winds at 99kt, which is 114mph, as the eye passed over. Then the station stopped reporting, leading one to believe the thing was blown away. No word on damages or casualties yet, and I hope no one was or will be hurt.

Ike remains cat 4 at 135mph and pressure at 948mb...though at least one of the recon flights picked up a 945mb pressure. The official track has indeed shifted notably north and Ike exits Cuba earlier as well.

His eye structure remains solid and round and all signs point to him maintaining his strength or intensifying before Cuba landfall sometime late Sunday.

reply to post by Shugo


You sound like our famous weatherman Paul Delegato.
He has every kind of weather gadget known to man and even HE can't predict where these hurricanes will go.
He gives about 4 or 5 scenarios to cover himself.

reply to post by MagicaRose


NOAA didn't give themselves a ton of tracks on the public front, they had Gustav down within a few miles on landfall. Technology does improve, although there will always be exceptions to weather.

The 5pm update brings (relatively) welcome news that Ike has weakened to a cat 3 storm with 120mph winds, but pressure officially down to 945mb. Sat images indicate that Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle prior to Cuban landfall.

This is even better news because if he makes landfall before EWRC completes, he should be at greater risk of being disrupted by his interaction with land.

Slightly less good news is that Ike appears to be moving north of west over the past several hours. This motion is expected as part of the "cone of doom" but isn't indicated by the NHC official "black line" track. Moving in this direction puts Ike slightly north of where he's expected to go and ultimately puts him towards the northern half of the cone of doom.
In short - the FL Keys and extreme south FL are not out of the woods for tropical weather yet.

reply to post by anachryon


Hes expected to take quite a beating over Cuba, Gustav only crossed about 50 miles over Cuba and it knocked him down a lot, Ike is supposed to skirt the entire length of Cuba, including its 7000' Mountainous areas.

But if he can keep at least Cat 1 or 2 status and he follows the tracks that the NHC models are predicting, he could end up in the Gulf, right over these two hot water eddies and re-intensify pretty quick as he heads for Tx or La.
This is the same image that was posted on the Gustav Thread, so assuming its still current then they should still be there.
For the record, I dont know for sure if they are or not as I have not seen it mentioned by Dr. Masters over at the Wunderground site.

Originally posted by anachryonThe 5pm update brings (relatively) welcome news that Ike has weakened to a cat 3 storm with 120mph winds, but pressure officially down to 945mb. Sat images indicate that Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle prior to Cuban landfall.

This is even better news because if he makes landfall before EWRC completes, he should be at greater risk of being disrupted by his interaction with land.

SFMR AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. source

110-115 KT = 127-132mph - indicates concentric eyewall cycle was completing and a possible weak Cat 4 at landfall.

Waves hit the waterfront in Baracoa, eastern Cuba. Hurricane Ike
took aim at Cuba Sunday after leaving 20 people dead in Haiti,
where fatalities from a succession of powerful storms in the
past few weeks now tops 600. AFP via Yahoo! News - Sep 07 2:29 PM

Waves hit the waterfront in Baracoa, Cuba. Hurricane Ike took aim
at Cuba Sunday after leaving 20 people dead in Haiti, where fatalities
from a succession of powerful storms in the past few weeks now tops 600.
AFP via Yahoo! News - Sep 07 2:29 PM

reply to post by Kr0n0s


That image you posted is 2 weeks old, so here's a more current
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map:





[edit on 7-9-2008 by Regenmacher]