Major Hurricane Ike, page 3

reply to post by disgustedbyhumanity

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The country is bracing for Hanna on Saturday which means there is only one day between, if that, until Ike hits and on the heels of Ike is Josephine. That's 3. I don't like those odds.

I think the earthquakes are a contributing factor to the weather patterns and to the unpredictablity of them. It is as if the earth is screaming!

reply to post by Sky watcher

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I understand the damage that would happen if Ike "steamrolls" FL. This is just kind of a tough situation; after Fay, so much of the state is mega-saturated that if Ike stalls off the coast or, god forbid, waltzes back & forth over land, he's going to wash a good chunk of the state off the map. Whole trees will come tumbling down, taking out power lines, roofs, cars, chunks of buildings; foundations will be damaged; flooding everywhere...just a big ball of yuck.

I didn't say a steamroll would be a good situation, just that it would be the lesser of two evils. If Ike gets in and gets out, everything will be over in a day. If he stalls and sticks around for an extended visit, well...



The new models for Ike have recently finished running. It's a large image so I'm going to link to it:
120hr models
More bad news. They're clustering on FL wayyyy more than I'd expected. The usual models are outliers and can be safely discarded. Unfortunately the outlying (inaccurate) CLP is the path we want him to take.

New update at 11pm EST, expect to see the track shift slightly to adjust to the new models, probably a few miles south.

reply to post by anachryon

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The GFDL model was by far the most accurate model in forecasting
where Gustav would go, from about 3 or 4 days out it consistently forecast
landfall to the south of NOLA.
Im gonna keep my eye on it for this storm and see if it will go 2 for 2.




[edit on 9/4/2008 by Kr0n0s]

reply to post by worldwatcher

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Remember though, the 4 to 5 day tracks are very innacurate at this point in time, things can change rapidly with wind shear and other factors.

But still, not a bad idea to prepare, and not to stay complacent

reply to post by OzWeatherman

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yep and I'm kind of hoping that the track changes, not that I'm wishing this on anyone else. I know for certain that Haiti definitely doesn't need to see any part of Ike.

Btw even the track goes 20-30 miles to my north or south, I'll still be affected. Not sure how big the hurricane force windfield is, but I think I heard that the tropical force winds go out at least 100 miles. IMO everyone in the cone should be prepared for the possibility of landfalling major cane sometime in the beginning of next week.

reply to post by worldwatcher

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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

They did a pretty good job with tracking Gustav, but normally not even the 2 day out forecast charts are accurate. But, it's still in the area, where I'd be watching closely.

Minor good news, if you can call it that, with the 5am update.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT IKE IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

NHC

This bumps Ike down to a category 3 hurricane, which is a welcome and expected downgrade. He's under some pretty heavy wind shear and will be for probably the next 24 hours. He's weathered the shear remarkably well, though; his eye structure is solid and this is protecting him from the shear. Still, he should remain a cat 3 for the next few days and may briefly drop down to cat 2 status before reintensifying.

Track remains largely unchanged with south FL still in the danger zone.

This is an amazing view of Ike's strengthening and the effects of shear on him.

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly out to Ike today, so we should have a wealth of new information as the day progresses. Expect changes!

reply to post by worldwatcher

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Hanna may be more than just rain. Three states are in emergency mode because of the threat of Hanna and today they are calling it a cyclone, it was also stated that Hanna could produce sudden tornados.

Originally posted by OzWeatherman
Remember though, the 4 to 5 day tracks are very innacurate at this point in time, things can change rapidly with wind shear and other factors.

5 day inaccuracies are becoming less apparent as technology becomes more advanced and more data variables are introduced.

NOAA's NEWEST GENERATION OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE SUPERCOMPUTERS DEBUTS Feb. 10, 2005

Here's a good recent example. Top is Hurricane Gustav's 5 day forecast issued on the 28th and on the bottom is 4 days later at landfall. Note that the 5-day forecast was almost dead on.



National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification



It's extremely probable that Ike is going thru the Florida Straights:





[edit on 5-9-2008 by Regenmacher]

reply to post by Regenmacher

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Oh I don't like that track, Make it go away lol. That would bring it my way and the way of rain soaked land. The keys would be flattened again.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nola evacuate again.

More info: NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts



[edit on 5-9-2008 by Regenmacher]

Not sure if this has been posted yet but I just came across this:
Florida Keys Evacuation Ordered for Hurricane Ike

This is the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

***PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. IT IS IMPORTANT THAT ALL FLORIDIANS AND VISITORS CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND BEGIN PREPARATIONS NOW FOR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS.***

[edit on 5-9-2008 by DearWife]

This is a Live Webcast from Miami Weather Service

reply to post by DearWife

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I hope this is allowed... from the American Red Cross ...

The reality is … helping Gustav victims alone may cost between $40 - $70 million. And our Disaster Relief Fund is empty as we spent all that was raised for flood relief this summer to provide services in the Midwest.

Major storms threaten at this very moment, as current relief operations are continuing. Your donations are badly needed as Red Cross disaster assistance has to rely on voluntary donations of time and money.

american.redcross.org...

Considering the forecasts I felt it necessary to remind folks of this.

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