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Originally posted by disgustedbyhumanity
For anyone else in South florida, Habitat for humanity runs thrift stores where you can buy used hurricane panels for $2 a foot, and home depot has 86" shutters on sale for $14 ($50 reg price), Smaller sizes on sale as well.
It is impossible to know at this time when or if Ike will turn to the north, and whether Florida might be spared the full brunt of Ike. Ike may be a threat to North Carolina in the longer term, and one possible scenario for the hurricane would be a repeat of Hurricane Floyd of 1999. Floyd bore down on Florida as a borderline Category 4/5 hurricane before turning at the last moment, eventually hitting North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Another scenario, which is suggested by the ECMWF model, is that Ike would recurve but not get pulled all the way out to sea. Instead, Ike might get trapped in a region of weak steering currents and wander for a few days, like Fay and now Gustav have done. This could occur offshore the East Coast, or over the Florida Peninsula.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
Unfortunately I'm in Hanna's path, and her 5pm update has her impacting me even more than previously thought. I'll continue monitoring Ike and hope I don't lose power in coming days.
Originally posted by habu71
there are aircraft being moved from Homestead AFB, so I would assume the USAF meteorologists feel it will be a FL major hurricane........
Or should I post it in one of the conspiracy forums and claim that it must mean USG prior knowledge of the track?
Track forecast for Ike The computer models were in two distinct camps this morning, but are now in better agreement on a more southerly track for Ike. This increases the danger for the Bahamas, Haiti, Cuba, and Florida. A southward component of motion is now forecast by all of the computer models except the UKMET, making it very likely that Ike will move into the Bahamas by Sunday. The GFDL is the furthest south, projecting a landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Sunday night. The UKMET is the furthest north, projecting that Ike will miss the Bahamas, but hit South Florida. All of the models bring Ike within 200 miles of Miami by Tuesday. The HWRF brings Ike to a point 50 miles from Miami on Tuesday, as a Category 4 hurricane.
Ike's long-term fate has two main possibilities: 1) Ike may hit eastern Cuba, as forecast by the latest (12Z, 8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and ECMWF models, and a number of ensemble members of the latest 12Z GFS model (Figure 2). A hit on Cuba would severely disrupt the storm, weakening it to a Category 1 or 2. Ike could then move on into the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify, as forecast by the ECMWF model. 2) Ike may plow through the Bahamas and come very close to South Florida (the consensus of the HWRF, NOGAPS, and GFS models). A trough of low pressure may then pull Ike to north. This turn to the north might occur over Florida, or over the western Bahamas, within 200 miles of the Florida coast. In the latter case, North Carolina might be at risk. The recent model trend has been to depict a weaker trough, resulting in Ike getting stranded, like Fay and Gustav did. Ike would resume a slow motion to the west as ridge of pressure builds in, potentially crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a third possibility--Ike may recurve before hitting the U.S., and move harmlessly out to sea. That possibility appears lower probability than cases 1 and 2 above, at this point.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.