Some interesting details on Cheney's recent tour through Eastern Europe and the goals he planed to accomplis. This analysis holds many clues as to
what is about to take place in the Caspian Geopolitical region - compliments to the U.S. foreign policy:
I call this The Caspian Shuffle
Cheney's trip to the Caucasus and Ukraine is possibly the last attempt by the Bush Administration to set up a Black Sea-Caucasian cordon on Russia's
southern border as a gift to the next administration.
A nice gift that would be - ruined relations with Russia and a setting for a new Cold War. I can only imagine how much McCain would further this
conflict if he is elected.
In 1997, Cheney teamed up with Donald Rumsfeld, William Kristol and others to establish the Project for the New American Century, a neoconservative
U.S. think tank whose self-stated goal is to "promote American global leadership." The project's ideas have been implanted in all the foreign
policy programs of the Bush Administration.
Anyone still think that the problem to everything that has been happening is not the U.S. foreign policy? The Bush administration's foreign policy
has already done major damage to the world. It looks like Bush is quickly trying to tidy up unfinished business before he leaves office.
Cheney orchestrated the U.S. invasion of Panama, Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, the anti-Iraqi policy and, some say, the molding of
Mikheil Saakashvili, described as the United States' main ally in the Caucasus.
Saaka is U.S. creation, and U.S. should be responsible for his actions to some degree. Unfortunately that will never happen. I wouldn't be
surprised if there is much more to Saaka's story than we know. It is very possible that he was trained by the U.S., and is much closer to the Bush
administration than we think.
In Tbilisi, he will offer "friend Michael" U.S. support and rearmament of the Georgian army with U.S.-made weapons.
No what could Georgia possibly do with new weapons? Thanks to U.S. there will now be a lengthy military stand-off between Russia and Georgia. And in
order to secure their investment, the U.S. will likely see to it that Saakashvili remains in power for a very long time or is succeeded by a puppet of
In Kiev, he will assure President Viktor Yushchenko that Ukraine will definitely enter NATO, which is not quite true, of course, but will help Cheney,
who has always seen military ties as the main instrument of U.S. foreign policy, to promote military cooperation with Ukraine.
Unfortunately for Mr. Cheney, Yuschenko is no longer in control in Ukraine. The Parliament established a new alliance, and now opposes him on every
move - especially moves meant to establish relations with NATO. I wonder what the U.S. has in plans for Ukraine to fortify their investment there. I
am sure we will see this plan unrevel in the coming months.
Now more about the Nabucco pipeline:
His task in Baku will be more difficult. He must cajole President Ilkham Aliyev into approving the Nabucco gas pipeline, which Baku, along with much
of Europe, is coming to view with growing mistrust.
The nearly 2,000-mile pipeline, which the United States has been advocating, would connect Azerbaijan with Central Europe. It will run across Georgia
(bypassing Armenia and Russia) towards Erzurum in Turkey and on to Austria's Baumgarten via Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.
Just imagine the further instability this project will cause in the Caucasus and the Caspian region. This energy charade by the U.S. is endagering an
entire geopolitical region, and throwing it off balance. I fear that what we have seen in Georgia is only a start.
Nabucco has already had its share of problems. The geopolitical rationale for the project - to bypass Russia - has increased spending from $3 billion
to $4.9 billion, and the cost now stands at $7.9 billion. Construction should begin in 2010 and the pipeline is to come on stream in 2013.
To turn a profit, the pipeline should annually pump 30 billion cubic meters (1.06 trillion cu f) of gas. Azerbaijan can supply only 8 billion, and
that only after it commissions the second phase of the Shah Deniz deposit in the Caspian Sea.
So, there is not enough gas for the pipe, which will make its gas very expensive indeed.
Hmm, I wonder what they plan to do with all that extra capacity. Oh look - Iran is nearby. And so is Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. I think we are
looking at a new page in America's foreign (*cough energy*) policy. I have been predicting that the Caspian geopolitical region would be the "new
Middle East" for years now. It looks like it is all coming true.
Anyone still think that all of what we recently saw happening in the Caucasus was not engineered by the U.S. Anyone still think that Russia is the
problem here. U.S. is getting more and more aggressive - and the result will be very bloody.
The Caucasian conflict has scared the European gas and energy block, which thinks in cubic meters or feet. The European and Azerbaijani energy and gas
processing companies are alarmed at the prospect of the pipe being controlled by such an unbalanced politician as Saakashvili.
The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) has started sending oil to Europe bypassing Georgia. This year, it will pump between 300,000 tons
(2.2 million bbl) and 400,000 tons (2.9 million bbl) of crude, initially delivered along the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, through the
Baku-Novorossiisk pipe. It made the decision on August 7, when Georgia started bombing South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinvali.
Very interesting - this pipeline business is already creating much distrust between the partners involved. I think Azerbaijan is the key country to
watch right now. Azerbaijan will either make or break the entire game for U.S.. Russia may view it as a place to make a stand, and we will see both
U.S. and Russia rushing to gain favors with Alieyev to make him come over to their side. Remember this name - Alieyev - you will start hearing it
more and more as the U.S. tried to expand its controlling influence over to Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is also negotiating the transit of additional gas to Europe via Russia.
"Baku's new interest [in Russia] may stem from a desire to protect the relationship with Moscow, or a sense that Nabucco is less likely than ever to
materialize," writes the Eurasia Group, British energy consultants who offer analysis on developments in Russia and the CIS, Central Asia and the
As I predicted, Alieyev is cautious of the U.S. He saw what the U.S. is capable of (coups such as in Georgia and Ukraine), and he sees himself as
being next. So now he will attempt to distance himself from the U.S., but do it very cautiously so as not to provoke a U.S.-backed coup. It is
possible that he will look to Russia for support.
U.S. is cooking something sinister in Azerbaijan, and this has many people concerned, especially in Russia.
Europeans have started talking about the need to involve Russia in the Nabucco project to make it viable. Russia alone can provide enough gas to make
the pipeline profitable by rerouting its gas from Blue Stream.
Interestingly, Russian energy giant Gazprom holds a 50% stake in Austria's Baumgarten, the terminal for the Nabucco pipeline.
"This goes against the whole concept of Nabucco, that it would not be either Russian or Russian-controlled gas," says Zeyno Baran, an energy and
Central Asian expert at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington and the wife of Matthew Bryza, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for
European and Eurasian Affairs.
This Nabucco pipeline is looking more and more like a ridiculously absurd and reckless idea. Russia found a way to sneak in some influence in the
project, but U.S. is still unrelentlessly pursuing it. Meanwhile the parties involved are viewing at as being a dangerous project, that places them
in a very unstable situation. Should they go ahead with it - the U.S. will gain a lot more political influence in the region. Should they choose to
abandon it - the U.S. investment falls through, and U.S. might seek ways to "reverse" the damage.
I just want to point out that what we saw happen in Georgia is just a tip of the iceberg. The U.S. is playing with fire, and the whole region could
go down in flames. This is the Middle East 2.0 in the making - and you know what that means: more wars, more tyrannical regimes, more Islamic
extremism. Because of its thirst for energy and political influence, U.S. is endangering an entire region, which included many countries. U.S. and
its puppets are also getting more and more reckless here.
I have said from the beginning - that U.S. simply must not get involved in the Caucasus or in the Caspian geopolitical region. There is simply no way
that this can end-up well. Georgia War may seem like nothing compared to potential conflicts brewing in the area. And in the end - you know that all
the blame will be thrown on Russia by way of cunning PR and media strategu employed by the West.
Europe is already starting to smell something fishy about what the U.S. is doing in Georgia and the Caspian region - that is why Europe stopped
blaming Russia for every single thing that is happening. Russia is gravely concerned with what is taking place as well.
THE U.S. MUST CHANGE IT'S FOREIGN POLICY IF WE ARE EVER TO SEE PEACE AND STABILITY IN THIS AREA OF THE WORLD. Or else the concerned parties,
including Russia, Iran and China will have to find a way to "deal" with it.