Russia May Cut Off Oil Flow to the West

Russia May Cut Off Oil Flow to the West

www.telegraph.co.uk

Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.

Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.

Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.

"They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday," claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels, where possible sanctions against Russia are on the agenda.

(visit the link for the full news article)

In response to EU sanctions and recent NATO Naval actions in the Black Sea , Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe. Using oil as a weapon Russia could drive oil prices above $150 a barrel.

www.telegraph.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)

excellent..... I was hoping for that to happen ,


Europe must be shown , that it is dependent on Russia and Russia is not dependent on it .............

Well I see this is from a newspaper however it makes no sense.
"In response to EU sanctions and recent NATO Naval actions in the Black Sea"
The EU has said it is against any sanctions on Russia.
And there has been no naval action by anyone other than Poland and the USA having an exercise plus giving humanitarian aid to Georgia.
Russians ships are there to and there has been no issues.
If Russia cut off oil to the west, it would cut off money to itself.
And then would indeed have import/export sanctions put upon it by the UN, which in reality would drive it back to post USSR status.
Cant see any of this happening, perhaps just scare tactics by the media to mess with financial markets.

If this happens, than it should be obvious that this isn't just Russia's plan to bring these prices back up again. This will most likely bring more chaos to areas already strained by high fuel prices and will probably push these areas into martial law and rationing. The fuel prices for winter are already said to be much higher this coming season. I wonder if this will also force Muslims to leave these areas and go back to their native countries?

I already posted a link to this article (yesterday i think it was) so this is a double post....and since that article came out, the Russians have vehemently denied this is their plan and basically rubbished the article in question, so I'm not sure there is anything to stress about on this issue just yet.......

reply to post by L.HAMILTON


I'm British. Our chancellor just said worst we've got the deepest recession for sixty years on the horizon! Housing market is near dead and has been the only thing keeping the joke economy going for the last decade, all the DIY shops and jobs for the builders, plasterers, electricians, etc. Now where do we sit? In an economy in free fall and with its face to the wall due to Labours ever increasing taxation which has resulted in a poor performance in our competitiveness, with a manufacturing sector hard pressed by globalisation plus freedom to switch production (the Japanese twenty years ago this UK was their favourite choice for placing new factories lol) to the new eastern European members of the EU. Is that another Russian conspiracy? Add the Russians playing with our oil prices that stuff up our plants production costs and our home owners budgets, along with the Iran thing added which bangs up the price of oil even more. in Britain it looks like we are mountaineering with no rope!

reply to post by Interestinggg


You reckon by cutting off oil to Europe the Russians will lose out finacially? China and India and the rest of Asia will take as much oil as Russia can pump, they will not lose out.

He who has oil is king (as long as he has means to defend his resources). And it's not just about oil - Russia has the most extensive gas and other energy reserves in the world. In fact I would think Europe is more concerned about gas than about oil.

If Russia lowers oil exports to the West - it won't really lose out economically. Oil/gas trade is a global business - done in a global market. If Russia doesn't want to sell to the West, than the East will only be too happy to buy that surplus at market prices. Look at Iran - U.S. and Europe is boycotting Iran's exports, yet Iranian government is thriving economically. China and India would gadly pay market prices for any spare capacity - extra energy fuels faster growth of their economics.


Russia already has extensive energy trade with the Chinese. This will likely become even more extensive in the coming years. Some of Russia's principal oil/gas resources in East Siberia and Sakhalin, are much closer to China than to Europe.


Oil is politics. For Russia it is about the only ace in its political card deck. So you can bet Russia will use oil for diplomacy. Europe needs to remember this and keep it in mind next time its politicians start barking at Russia. U.S. knows well enough where its oil comes from - that is why you rarely see U.S. accusing Saudi Arabia of anything.

LOL.. you have a few months... if they are going to do it they will wait until the Dec - Feb time to make the most impact.

Europe, like America must pull their heads out of their as*e$ and become energy independent.

Oh come on! Russia will sell oil and other natural reserves. Not to EU - then to East. East is buying oil and natural reserves from someone now - then he will switch to cheaper Russian ones. But what China and other countries bought before that will be available to EU. It is global economy. Prices will be higher - but for both sides. Russia ,as far as i know - might be wrong, does not have capacity to transfer huge amounts of oil and natural gaz to China due to infrastructure so it will need to invest a lot. Once again - might be wrong. But in any case, West will need to pay more for oil/gas from middle east, price of its products will rise and Russia will need to pay more for what it buys from there. Like - food? Like - medicines? Like - industry equipment? Large part of Russian export is to West. Large part of Russian import is from West. In global economy those games will hurt both sides.
And if Russia will stop selling oil completely -the only measure that will really cripple EU - it will starve.
In the long run this cheap blackmailing will get Russia to loose its

the only ace in its political card deck

As Maloy put it (hey there are nukes too)
since the need to switch for other energy sources will be greater. EU not so willingly tolerate one superpower telling them what to do. They are not going to do the same for much weaker one with common borders.

Don't think that Russia plans to rely on oil and gas forever. The government knows that oil is its strength but also its economy's weakness.

But oil and gas are guaranteed to stay relevent for at least another 10-15 years. It is simply too difficult, expansive, and costly to change the developed world's energy infrastructure.

Plus Russia also has other key resources which will keep it a relevant player - aluminum, steel, titanium, uranium, and much more.

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge


You got it right in your post, Zeroknowledge, if Russia starts to offer gas/oil to China and the East, the current suppliers to that region will just call the West and the US.

If this was the case, why is China not buying huge volumes of gas/oil from Russia today? Because China does not want to be become dependent on too much of its gas/oil from a single country and be subject to the political pressures, such as Russia is CLAIMED to be doing in the article cited in the OP.

I certainly agree that the West needs to become more energy independent but Germany still has large resources of coal, and the UK has large reserves of oil in the North Sea just as Norway has. Despite these reserves, North Sea crude is typically a ligher crude and very good at refinering into higher grade oils.

The Hungarians have an actual joke for this.

This is the Russian Telegraph, what they're going to send to the EU.

We, the Russians are morons. Stop.
The Georgians are innocent. Stop.
It was our fault. Stop
The USA and the EU, but mostly Israel is right. Stop.
Russian oil export. Stop.
Russian gas export. Stop.

The EU is greatly depending from the Russians. And this time, the Russians are right in everything. I'm not a huge fan of the Russians, but this time, I'm also supporting their actions. The Zionists should have shut their mouth for a lifetime.

[edit on 30-8-2008 by Sheridan]

reply to post by Sheridan

The Zionists should have shut their mouth for a lifetime.

This is even funnier joke then your previous one. Stop.
Our politicians are as silent as a fish since this war broke out. They fear that taking Israel-Georgia warm relationship and arm sales and military training ,Russia could eventually sell new SAM systems to Syria/Iran. So "Zionists" actually "shut their mouth" , not for lifetime naturally.
Hey, i actually thought that Hungary is not that happy about Soviet (and T-60s--->T-90s are Soviet design) tanks in foreign cities (Tshinvali, Gori, Poti... Or even Budapest). I am sure that there were people who thought that USSR was right then too, their sphere of interests and such.

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge

The Hungarians knows what from they can choose. They can choose from two options. First, living under the zionists regime, what is currently there and let their country to be sold to Israeli and Zionist morons. Or number two, they're supporting Russia, whose are opposing the Zionists. As I heard the Hungarian civs are supporting Russia, regardless what their common past is, because they hate the Zionists much more, then the Russians. Maybe you don't heard, but there is a fierce Anti-Zionist opposition in Hungary. So, in their place, I would choose the Russians too, just as the citizens are doing, because Zionism is brought nothing to that country just pain and suffering, much more then the Soviets back in the communist era. They've chosen the less worse from the two. And this is the Russians. And I agree with them completely. Zionists are just pain in the ass in that country... and all over the world. Maybe some Hungarians here at ATS can confirm what I'm writing.

Oh, and Zero. What do you think, who is pushed this Georgian war? Israel and the U.S. Zionists were behind it, because only Russia dare to oppose them. The Zionists are just staying silent, because they know that the Russians will use nukes instead of potato guns and they will wipe that small terror state down from the map if they open their mouth. Zionists were behind this, but their pitiful action is failed.

[edit on 30-8-2008 by Sheridan]

Originally posted by cosmicpixie
I already posted a link to this article (yesterday i think it was)

True

please direct your comments to the preceding thread.

closing

Let me get this straight..

The USA and EU can threaten economic sanction on Russia, but Russia cannot threaten them with gas cut ?

The USA and EU can support/recognise Kosovo, but Russia cannot do so in Ossentia ?

The USA can place missile defense systems in Poland/Ukaine, but can Russia do the same in Venezuela or Cuba ?

You know, events thru the years, has just shown that the whole damn American and British News media is just one big propaganda entity. Every uncompliant country leader was labelled "Hitler", and the distortion of news in incredible. From the Chinese to Russia the news event are skewed.

reply to post by manson_322


If you think Europe doesn't know that, you are living in cloud cuckoo land, my friend. Or do you think that Europe is doing Russia a favour by taking all that nasty, useless oil and gas from them? Come on!

LOL-thats a pretty stupid/ignorant thing to say. Russia is just as dependent on the EU for the revenue for their energy as the EU is dependent on Russia for the source of it.

Originally posted by manson_322
excellent..... I was hoping for that to happen ,


Europe must be shown , that it is dependent on Russia and Russia is not dependent on it .............