posted on Aug, 26 2008 @ 05:25 PM
reply to post by centurion1211
The really interesting part of this poll is that it is in fact the first time since the primaries ended that McCain has been leading according to
Gallup. Coincidence? Possibly. That said, Rasmussen also has Obama losing 3% since naming Biden as his VP, so there may be something to it.
If there is a connection, I think jam321 has it about right. Obama's entire campaign has been based upon 'change', yet in the last several
weeks, he has been forced to reposition himself towards the center and closer to McCain. The more he has moved in that direction, the more he
has alienated his core supporters on the far left of the Democratic party. Not surprisingly, polls have also shown a significant drop in Dem
enthusiasm for their candidate over the same period, if perhaps not a drop in those voting for him.
And now we get Joe Biden as Obama's VP, a man who has been in the US Senate longer than Obama's largest voting demographic (18-29 year olds) has
been alive. He might convince the true believers that Biden can be an agent of 'change', but moderates and independents? That's a tough sell,
if not impossible. Not only that, but I suspect that the vast gulf in experience between he and Biden will end up highlighting Obama's weakness in
that regard in the minds of the average voter, rather than complimenting his strengths. This is precisely why I thought Obama should avoid any VP
who might overshadow him and make him appear to be an even weaker candidate. We don't have enough evidence yet to say that this is the case, but
I suspect it may be.
If there is a connection, I think its just another example of the fact that Obama has thrown 'change' under the bus over the course of the last
couple of months, and what voters are left with looks an awful lot like a typical Democrat, albeit one with little practical experience. I don't
believe that McCain is directly benefitting in the form of defections from Obama to McCain, but instead, it appears to be a general
disillusionment with Obama as time passes and a slow, steady erosion of his support levels from the high 40s in June to the mid/low 40s now.
[edit on 26-8-2008 by vor78]