GALLUP Daily: McCain Takes Lead After Biden Pick..., page 1

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Topic started on 26-8-2008 @ 03:57 PM by centurion1211

The Gallup daily tracking poll. Another shocker (for the dems) ...

Article on Gallup Poll

PRINCETON, NJ -- It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates.

So, the dems in power made Obama pick Biden to try and salvage this election, and what has happened? Nothing. At least nothing for Obama and the dems to feel good about.

Is it just me, or have a lot of the obamaphiles here stopped posting on Obama threads. Does that mean that even they have started to see the writing on the wall that Obama's candidacy is doomed?

reply posted on 26-8-2008 @ 04:11 PM by sos37

Again, I think polls are to be considered highly suspect in their reliability before any election.

But if the trend is true and more support is swaying toward McCain, I'm skeptical of it being Obama's pick for Biden as VP. We know why Obama chose Biden - he's got the foreign policy skills that Obama needs. Even Condoleeza Rice praised Joe Biden as being a statesman of substance.

My opinion as to what's causing the trend to go more conservative (if there really is one) is McCain is finally fighting back. His campaign is airing ads on Obama's connection to Bill Ayers and other issues that Americans should think about carefully before they choose a president. Just my opinion.

reply posted on 26-8-2008 @ 04:24 PM by jam321

reply to post by sos37

He is having trouble with the polls cause he is showing that what he says and what he does are two different things.

Picking Biden tells people

1)he (Obama) lacks experience

2) There is no change. Biden reflects business as usual...nothing new.

reply posted on 26-8-2008 @ 05:25 PM by vor78

reply to post by centurion1211

The really interesting part of this poll is that it is in fact the first time since the primaries ended that McCain has been leading according to Gallup. Coincidence? Possibly. That said, Rasmussen also has Obama losing 3% since naming Biden as his VP, so there may be something to it.

If there is a connection, I think jam321 has it about right. Obama's entire campaign has been based upon 'change', yet in the last several weeks, he has been forced to reposition himself towards the center and closer to McCain. The more he has moved in that direction, the more he has alienated his core supporters on the far left of the Democratic party. Not surprisingly, polls have also shown a significant drop in Dem enthusiasm for their candidate over the same period, if perhaps not a drop in those voting for him.

And now we get Joe Biden as Obama's VP, a man who has been in the US Senate longer than Obama's largest voting demographic (18-29 year olds) has been alive. He might convince the true believers that Biden can be an agent of 'change', but moderates and independents? That's a tough sell, if not impossible. Not only that, but I suspect that the vast gulf in experience between he and Biden will end up highlighting Obama's weakness in that regard in the minds of the average voter, rather than complimenting his strengths. This is precisely why I thought Obama should avoid any VP who might overshadow him and make him appear to be an even weaker candidate. We don't have enough evidence yet to say that this is the case, but I suspect it may be.

If there is a connection, I think its just another example of the fact that Obama has thrown 'change' under the bus over the course of the last couple of months, and what voters are left with looks an awful lot like a typical Democrat, albeit one with little practical experience. I don't believe that McCain is directly benefitting in the form of defections from Obama to McCain, but instead, it appears to be a general disillusionment with Obama as time passes and a slow, steady erosion of his support levels from the high 40s in June to the mid/low 40s now.

[edit on 26-8-2008 by vor78]

reply posted on 26-8-2008 @ 06:57 PM by AndrewTB

While polls are innacurate and useless. They can be used to suggest a change in popularity.

At any given time its hard to gauge exactly how many people support a candidate, but when polls start to lean in another direction it at least shows people are starting to change their minds.

McCain camp is in a very good spot at the moment. Lets just hold off on the celebrations until the final countdown!

Edit:

I must add, I think it will take another week or two before Biden's selection shows any real impact. Analyst say Biden would be the pick of weakness so I really see the numbers dropping by 2-3 points.

[edit on 8/26/2008 by AndrewTB]

reply posted on 26-8-2008 @ 07:09 PM by jetxnet