Update: Hurricane* Gustav: Sights set on the Gulf

I wonder how much is left of Cuba.

18-23' storm surge and 25" of rain along with average sustained winds of 145mph holy cow. I seriously wonder if half of Cuba didnt just get washed away.

It barely even phased Gustav too.

What was the final storm surge reading for Katrina? I've been checking into it, and all I could find was 11.45'. If an almost 12' storm surge did that to N.O. what is a 18-23' surge going to do to the area?

This is the video from the Press Conference:
Nagin Warns Of 'Storm Of Century'

[edit on 30-8-2008 by DearWife]

Category 5 strength coming soon, and the models are shifting east (again)..
Check out the intensity model here.. scary

Hi Kronos I really appreciate you keeping us updated on this .As you may know I am too busy yakking in here to watch the news ..So I appreciate it for sure.
Star for you .

In your opening post you said this
[I'm waiting for the "Chinas Firing up their weather machine" posts]

I was gonna say what about Americas weather Machines lol

anyway I just wanted to say thanks .

Whoever is by the coast lines please be safe and just get out of dodge .

Not much to update at the 2am. Wind speed looks to have fallen by a couple mph, pressure up slightly. Gus' southern eyewall took some damage from Cuba so this is not unexpected.

We're on sat blackout for right now. He's been reforming his eye and picking up some steam in the NE quad, so once blackout is over we may see a more defined eye.

Gus hasn't hit the Loop Current yet; that's where he's going to have the opportunity to really blow up. 5am update will probably not show much new, 8am should bring some big updates.

This thing is projected to be worse then Katrina.

Worse then Katrina. Worse then Katrina. More or less, every county that touches the gulf from AL/MS to just inside Texas is being evacuated.

NO folks are already showing up in Houston, not something we are to thrilled about. One has to hope they don't vandalize the very buses that are transporting them AGAIN. I suppose it's best to not even get into that issue.

Here is something to consider. The media obviously wants to sacrifice New Orleans. IF Gustav hit New Orleans as a at 4, New Orleans will cease to exist. How does the New Orleans National Marsh Land Park sound?

People in Houston are not going anywhere. If this things veers to the west, toward Houston and it's 3 million people in the metro area, it's going to be the Apocalypse here (in Houston).

Everyone will be caught off guard.

If this thing hits anywhere from New Orleans to Houston (and it will), it is going to be terrible. So get ready.

I'm holding out a little hope.
Gus has mostly lost his eyewall on the water vapor satellite. I've been watching the loops since he came off Cuba and the eyewall has continued to fall apart. Right now he's got a ragged wall on the southwest and an open eye on the northeast.

While I don't think Gustav is going to just go *poof*, I do think there remains an outside chance that he's not going to get as strong as the current forecast indicates.
He has yet to get through the very warm and very conducive Loop Current. He will strengthen when he gets some of that fuel, but he may not blow up to cat 5 as currently forecast. This does not change my strong recommendation that anyone in the path evacuate. I am hoping, though, that he won't be able to make landfall as a cat 4 storm.

5am update might well see him reduced to a cat 3 storm. Here's hoping for slightly better news in about 30 minutes.

5am excerpts

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 18 TO 25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

Downgraded. Good, sorta.
He's reforming the NE eyewall pretty quickly right now. He'll probably go back up to cat 4 later today.

Still holding out hope that he'll not make landfall as a cat 4.

Check out this buoy thats near Gustav.. 31' wave height!
Heres a link to nearby buoys in the gulf NDBC

42003 - MARITIME-buoy
Sunday Aug. 31 - 13:49 UTC
Air Temperature: 78°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Wind: E at 54 mph gusting to 67
Pressure: 994.8 mb
Wave Height: 31 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

Mornin' folks.

Some (relatively) good news to find after a few hours of sleep...Gus has remained at cat 3 through the 11am update with sustained winds at 120mph. Considering less than 12 hours ago he was forecast to be around cat 5 at this point, this is a definite improvement.

Please remember a category 3 is still a major hurricane and this storm will still cause serious damage.

The most important news from the 11am update is this....
Gustav is forecast to make landfall early Monday afternoon.
Time is running out for people to evacuate ahead of this storm. He's picked up some speed and the new landfall estimates reflect this.

Gustav is very big, very strong, and remains very dangerous.

Some more slightly good news. I say "good news" with hesitation because Gustav isn't good news at all, but I don't know what other term to use.

5pm has Gus slightly weaker in the windspeed department, down to 115mph. This is quite a bit more than "just a windy day," but it's better than winds in the 150+ mph range that were thought possible for this point in his track.
Unfortunately we also see a drop in pressure with the update to 957mb. It's been slowly dropping all afternoon, which indicates we may well see the windspeeds go back up. This is balanced by the fact that Gustav is past the warmest Gulf waters; he'll probably get stronger, but he won't blow up in intensity to a cat 5.
He's likely to increase in size, though. He's a monster storm, and don't forget that. He's grown to hurricane winds at a 130mi diameter and tropical storm winds at a 440mi diameter. Gustav is really big.

Models have started a left shift, and the official track has adjusted based on these slightly west. Landfall is still expected Monday afternoon with the most likely point of impact in southeastern LA. He's trucking along pretty quickly, and outer storm bands are now visible on LA radar.

Gustav will be pushing a huge storm surge ahead of him on Monday, there's no doubt about that. Buoys have measured waves of 40+ feet ahead of the storm. Expect landfall as a strong cat 3, though it's also well within the realm of possibility to see landfall as weak 3/strong 2. His storm surge will be larger than whatever his landfall category indicates, though. Don't be lulled into a sense of security if you're in low-lying areas of the LA coast. A lot of water and a lot of wind are coming your way.

Unfortunately those who haven't evacuated are pretty much stuck where they are. Curfew goes into effect in less than two hours, and by the time curfew lifts the area will be experiencing the first waves of Gustav. This is your last chance to leave if you haven't already.
My best goes out to those along the entire Gulf coast, especially to those in LA who haven't evacuated.

Conditions are rapidly deteriorating on the Gulf Coast.
Hold on to your proverbial hats. This is the start of the bad stuff and it'll only get worse from here.

The outer bands of Gustav are now reaching coastal areas as well as slightly inland areas like NOLA. Tornado warning in effect for NOLA.

8pm update - winds continue at 115mph, remaining at category 3.

The area of hurricane force winds has expanded. Coastal areas will see 74+ mph winds starting around midnight tonight.

Pressure in Gus continues to drop according to dropsonde reports - down to 952mb. That's a big drop in a relatively short period, which is worrisome.

Forecast track remains unchanged with eye landfall expected on the southeast LA coast by noon CST Monday.

It looks like Gus is making a last-ditch effort to power up before landfall. Let's all hope he doesn't succeed....

Expect frequent NHC updates through the evening and overnight.
I'm trying to re-schedule a prior commitment I have for this evening. I'll update anything of relevance, but may be away from the compy for several hours before midnight EST.

Kinda off topic here but some of you might find this funny, some people have a "hurricam" set up, apparently in La. but not really sure.
Seems to be at a bar and these guys are drunk and being stupid.. if youre bored watch it, or just listen to them

Hurricam

I just realized its in Houma La. if anyone is familiar with that area of La, knows its cajun country lol..

Ill put it in its own thread, this could get interesting in about 18 hours or so..

[edit on 8/31/2008 by Kr0n0s]

Kr0n0s, I've had the drunk guys webcam on in the background for a few hours now. On one hand, it's a little light humor during all this stress; on the other hand, it's like a car wreck and I can't look away. Someone may have to scrape those dingbats out of the chain-link fence with a dental pick 12 hours from now.

No real change in the past 6ish hours. I'm sort of surprised; I thought he'd start weakening by this point.
His official eyewall landfall will almost certainly be as a cat 3. Hurricane conditions will be in full effect 4-6 hours before the eyewall reaches land. 74+ mph winds are already being reported from coastal buoys and wave heights are still in the 20-40' range just offshore.

This is a major hurricane and it's going to get ugly in the next couple hours. All that's left to do is wait, watch, and hope for the best.