Update: Hurricane* Gustav: Sights set on the Gulf

Mornin' storm-watchers.
As Dr. Masters says: "Time to Leave New Orleans"

8am update has Gus at a solid cat 3, 120mph sustained with pressure at 955mb. He took a little more of a northerly track over the last few hours. Expect to see the modeling jiggle a little due to that, probably back to the east.
There's a weather system moving slowly south that could push Gus west, but this is largely dependent on which system gets there first. If Gus beats the high, I'm guesstimating a mid-LA to mid-MS landfall. If the high drops down faster, western-LA to near-mid-TX. TBH, though, Gus hasn't really been doing what he's been expected to do, so there's still much up in the air.


The 8am official track has something of note: it has Gus staying at hurricane strength a full 24 hours after landfall. That's troubling. To me this implies he could potentially make landfall as a major hurricane, a solid cat 3 or higher. He also slows down tremendously, and some models have him all-out stalling right after landfall. This is potentially disastrous. As we saw with Fay, a stalled tropical storm will dump a ton of rain, and Gus will be much larger and stronger than Fay was.

If you're in a low-lying or coastal area on the northern Gulf coast...please head somewhere safe now. Today. He's firing up faster than anyone thought, and he's going to just get stronger.

reply to post by anachryon


Just wanted to think you for posting these updates. I have been checking in with this thread regularly.

I just hope that people are taking this seriously and that we have minimal loss of life.

For anyone whos in the path please let us know you are ok ect,
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Looks like its a cat 4 now. I'm so glad that NW Florida is not going to take a hit. If anything its going to go west a little further.

Oh Lord, I step away from the TV & computer for a few hours and Gus goes insane.

Yep, he's a solid cat 4 now with winds at 140mph. The 2pm update says, quote, "SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN CUBA."
Category 4 storms have sustained winds of 131-155mph and category 5 storms have sustained winds of 156mph and higher. The NHC tends to stay on the conservative side of forecasting, so if they say Gus could become cat 5, it's worth listening to and taking seriously.

He'll be passing over a low-lying area of Cuba so there are no mountains to tear him apart as in Haiti. His forward momentum is increasing too. He could very well lose some strength over Cuba, but he's so big and moving so quickly that any loss of strength will be minimal and temporary.

Guys, this is a dangerous storm. He's big and getting bigger, he's strong and getting stronger, and I urge anyone in the path of this thing to get the hell out now. Beaumont to Biloxi...get to high ground, please.

I just posted this in Hurricane Watch...I prolly should of put it here.

My husband told me he saw a video of the Mayor telling everyone to leave. Here's the vid:
Nagin encourages everyone to 'get out'

There's more video that plays afterwards.

Where is our Cloud seeding program!? This storm increased 23 mph in 4 hours, even when it's outer storm bands are over land, the furthest is reaching nothern flordia... it's still under cuba! Wow!!! And with Hanna with a projected land fall of possiably 4 days after Gus hits, your seeing history in the making. (.)_(.) keep them watching

This is live CONTINUING COVERAGE: WDSU COVERS HURRICANE GUSTAV

Just reposting here - some news agencies (CBS, Sky, a couple others) are reporting that Gustav is at cat 5 strength.

Gustav is NOT at category 5 yet

Gus is still a cat 4 with 145mph sustained winds. A FEMA official "misspoke" and called him category 5, and news agencies are running with that. Cat 5 won't happen until his sustained winds are at 156mph or higher. Bad news agencies for not researching the most basic hurricane info!!

He will almost certainly reach cat 5 strength today or early tomorrow, but he's not there yet.

5pm update:
Sustained winds up to 150mph - Gus is a strong cat 4 hurricane. Pressure is at 942mb though some recon flights have placed it a few mb lower.
Track has shifted to the east some again. It's gonna keep jiggling back and forth so we probably should expect that as the norm.

His forward speed has put landfall now about 12 hours earlier - Monday afternoon.

He's literally just about to cross Cuba, so there will be some changes for probably the 8pm and most likely the 11pm updates as well.

RSOE EDIS did report it was catgory five about 10-15 minutes ago but it has changed back to four for now - it is predicted to hit 5 though in the next couple of days .

I just want to take a moment to once again encourage anyone in Gustav's path to move inland. Gus is big, Gus is strong, and Gus is going to be pushing a big storm surge ahead of him.

Please remember what happened three years ago. If the low-lying areas of Louisiana take a near-direct hit, there's a very real chance that the levees will not be able to hold up.

We're at less than 48 hours until current estimated landfall. There isn't much time to wait and see what happens.

8pm is out.

Gus is more than halfway across a narrow, relatively flat area of Cuba.
His winds remain at 150mph, and some recon flights have put his pressure down a few notches to the 936mb range. Official NHC report is at 941mb.

Storm surge of 18-23'. Please remember that Katrina's storm surge was ~28', and it was the storm surge that was responsible for the worst of the damage. Mets are talking very seriously about Gus' storm surge affecting Gulf levees. Levee damage and overtopping is not a distant possibility.

Track has not changed much, if at all, in the past 3 hours.

Gustav is dangerous. He's very, very dangerous. We'll probably see him raised to cat 5 by the 8am update. We're still looking at him making landfall as a cat 4 and retaining hurricane force winds for a full 24 hours afterward.

My thoughts are with the Cubans being affected by Gustav. This won't be pretty.

I'm watching the Live feed which is now showing Mayor Nagin and other representatives. The Mayor announced that Katrina had a footprint of about 400 miles but Gustav's footprint is at 900 miles. He also mentioned this storm is worse than Betsy and Katrina. Also to "Evacuate Now".

reply to post by anachryon


anachryon, i appreciate your updates on here, I havent really had time as I've been busy packing etc, should find out where Ill be headed tomorrow and be there by at least Tuesday.
Ill try and get some good firsthand photos and post on here when Im able to.
Toughest things is finding a hotel, thats open and has internet, cant do my job at all without internet.
Im betting that ill be somewhere near where I was in 05, abbeyville, new iberia, La fayette and Lake Charles..
I do NOT want to go back into NOLA..
.

Mayor Nagen of NO told everyone to leave. That is an example of a broken clock being right twice a day.

Winds are 150, eye is almost completely in the Gulf.

It's expected to strengthen. Here is the best part.

The NHC's model has the storm hitting NO, then hooking into Houston.

In the spirit of this website, does anyone think this storm is alittle TO perfect?

Seriously.

In the spirit of this website, does anyone think this storm is alittle TO perfect?

Despite the devastation that these things bring to peoples lives, I cant help but to think what a beautiful piece of nature a perfectly formed hurricane is.

Seriously

I'll keep posting updates as I can.
On the upside, I'm far away from the danger. On the downside, I'm going to be away from the PC Sunday evening, so I'll be out of pocket for the beginning of the worst of things.
I'm watching Gustav constantly. I just have a real bad feeling about it, and as I posted earlier, I have for days now.

Things are going to get real ugly over the next 36-48 hours.

For reference, other current Gustav threads on ATS:
Hurricane Warning to New Orleans
Current sustained winds 150mph
Gustav is coming, but I gotta stay
Are you in the path of Gustav?

Gus' eye is now about 99% back over water. He's heading right into some really warm water and nothing is between him and us now.
Cuba seems to have done very little to slow him down. His eyewall presentation is muddy but this is to be expected. He perked right up as soon as the north eyewall hit the Gulf; it went ragged near the coast but tightened when it reached the waters. This is not a good sign. Anything he lost over Cuba should be regained very quickly.

Nothing to do now but watch and wait. Some of the models have changed kind of dramatically in the past few hours and not in a good way, but until more models come into agreement with those ... I don't want to even go there.

11pm update is coming in as I type....winds down just 10mph to 140, pressure up only slightly. Jesus. I thought he'd lose more 'oomph' than that.

Here we go, guys. NOLA is under mandatory evac, coastal areas are preparing for 20' storm surge. At this point I think we can only hope for a miracle.