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Originally posted by Regenmacher
reply to post by KaginD
NHC official forecast and media hype are two different animals, and the later can get you killed.
Although Charley's path had the storm heading toward the Tampa area, Berg said the warning swath encompassed a much larger area -- as far south as Punta Gorda, in fact. The swath takes into account any errors, he said.
"We were not saying Tampa. We were saying the west coast of Florida," Berg said. The media's fixation with "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa," gave the public the wrong idea, he noted.
Everyone had "ample warning," Berg said. "It's just unfortunate that certain people didn't evacuate. source
99% of the time the NHC is correct www.nhc.noaa.gov...
[edit on 28-8-2008 by Regenmacher]
It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks.
The atmosphere pulled a major surprise last night and this morning, substantially altering the short and long-term fate of Tropical Storm Gustav. The ridge of high pressure that was forcing Gustav to the west shifted positions, and is now oriented southwest-to-northeast. This has pushed Gustav to the southwest, and pumped in some dry air into the northwest side of Gustav. As a result of this dry air, and the weakening of the circulation due to interaction with Haiti's mountains, Gustav was forced to form a new center under heavy thunderstorms on the its south side, away from the dry air and Haiti. As a result, the center of Gustav is now passing very close to Jamaica, and Gustav will pound that island today with winds near hurricane force. Rainfall will continue to be the main threat from Gustav today, as it was when it hit Hispaniola. Gustav's torrential rains accumulated to over 12 inches in southern Hispaniola, triggering floods and landslides that killed 22 people. The rain are mostly over in Hispaniola, but are just getting cranked up over Jamaica. It appears now that eastern Cuba will not get much rain from Gustav.
Originally posted by Kr0n0s
In a dire attempt at survival he created a new center away from damaging dry air, Gustav's track didnt change, he just made a new eye further south, giving the impression that the storm moved.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING. GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. source
Thanks to everyone for all the great maps and links. I am down in Houston and still preparing.
THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR..
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
It's time to leave New Orleans
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level. While New Orleans must exist where it is, this is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you.
If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees.
Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.
Visible satellite loops continue to show a well-organized and intensifying storm that is growing larger in size. Upper-level outflow is established in all quadrants and is growing. Low-level spiral bands are multiplying and intensifying, and the amount and intensity of Gustav's heavy thunderstorms are steadily increasing.
A well-defined eye has appeared, and Gustav appears poised to enter a phase of rapid intensification. Radar from Pilon, Cuba shows the developing spiral bands of Gustav quite well. Dry air is not evident anywhere close to Gustav.