Update: Hurricane* Gustav: Sights set on the Gulf

The latest GDFL run has Gustav peaking in the Gulf at 162 knots and making landfall near New Orleans as a Cat 4. Note: margin of error is significant at 5-7 days from projected landfall, so all those from Texas to Florida should keep their eyes on this storm



Operational Model Displays



[edit on 27-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

Meteorologists and acronyms: the girlfriend they fight over with the military


AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal Osillation
ATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system
BOC: Bay Of Campeche
CATL: Central Atlantic
CARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
CISK: Conditional Instability of the Second Kind
CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center
CONUS: CONtinental United States
DOMREP: DOMinican REPublic
EATL: East Atlantic
ECMWF: European Center for Medium range Weather
Forecasting
ENSO: El Nino/Southern Oscillation
GANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtion
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GFS: Global Forecast System
GOMEX: Gulf Of MEXico
HWRF: Hurricane and Weather Research Forecasting
IRT: In Reference or In Rgeard To
ITCZ: InterTropical Convergence Zone
IVO: In the Vicinity Of
LLC: Low Level Circulation
MCC: Mesoscale Covective Complex
MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation
MM5: FSU Mesoscale Model
MSLP: Mean Sea Level Pressure
NAM: North American Mesoscale Model
NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation
NCATL: North Central Atlantic
NEWD: Northeastward
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction
System
NWD: Northward
OBX: Outer Banks (N.C.)
QBO: Quasi Biennial Oscillation
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
SEUS: SouthEast U.S.
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
SPC: Storm Prediction Center
SSD: Satellite Services Division
SWEAT: Severe WEAther Threat
SWWD: Southwestward
TUTT: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof
UKMET: United Kingdom METeorological office
ULL: Upper Level Low
WW3: Wave Watch 3 model.
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated (also known as Zulu time)
XTRP: Not a model. Short for Extrapolation. Dead reckoning plot of a storm if it kept in a straight line, with no other forces acting upon it

www.wunderground.com...

Check close up satellite visuals of new convections popping everywhere loop animation here

[edit on 27-8-2008 by undermind]

reply to post by Regenmacher


Oh boy.... that is a whopper. Gas is going to be insane. I hope New Orleans is as prepared as their mayor is claiming.

Update on Gustav, Haiti hammered, the storm stalls, over a dozen perish as a result of the storm, which is expected to drop several inches of rain on the island.

13 dead as Gustav lashes Haiti, Dominican Republic

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Aug 27, 2008 (AFP) - Tropical Storm Gustav stalled over Haiti on Wednesday, lashing the impoverished country with heavy rain after striking it with hurricane force and killing 13 people.

The US National Hurricane Center warned that Gustav could regain hurricane strength on Thursday as it passes between Jamaica and the southeastern coast of Cuba, and oil prices rose on fears that the storm could strike installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

The US southern coastal state of Louisiana's governor Bobby Jindal activated a storm crisis team and vowed to lead advance preparation efforts, after the city of New Orleans was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Louisiana Governor also confirmed that he will stay home as long as the storm is considered a threat to Louisiana, which may keep him from the Republican National Convention.

Originally posted by Karlhungis
Oh boy.... that is a whopper. Gas is going to be insane. I hope New Orleans is as prepared as their mayor is claiming.

Surprisingly enough...

People are taking things seriously this time (it seems.) They have been out cleaning drains, prepping buses, trains, people are stocking up on supplies to leave with.

That's a big difference, people are stocking up on things to take with them, people aren't purchasing items that they will use to hunker down this storm (overall).

I am looking to Governor Jindal for guidance actually, I'm not relying on our no brains mayor to do much of anything. He's probably to busy still reeling from the excitement of that award he gave himself last week for excellence in recovery.

Everyone please stay safe, listen to the authorities when they say to go. My plans are made, I definitely won't be observing this one first hand like I did last time.

Following your insight niteboy, here's the latest on a potential evacuation of New Orleans..

New Orleans considers evacuation as Gustav looms

NEW ORLEANS, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Three years after Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Louisiana coast, New Orleans residents on Wednesday again confronted the prospect of an evacuation as Tropical Storm Gustav loomed.

Not since Katrina struck on Aug. 29, 2005, have residents faced a forced departure from their homes and businesses as many still struggle to rebuild their lives in a city famed for its jazz clubs and Mardi Gras festival.

Storm levees broke under the onslaught of Katrina, flooding 80 percent of New Orleans and killing almost 1,500 people in the city and along the Gulf of Mexico coast. The hurricane caused $125 billion in wind and flood damage.

In addition evacuations of some of the offshore oil facilities have begun:

Shell says pulling 300 workers due to storm Gustav

HOUSTON, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Shell Oil Co said it was evacuating about 300 nonessential workers from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday due to the threat from Tropical Storm Gustav.

Dont let the current tracking models throw you off, because of the high mountains in Haiti, Gustav was torn apart quite a bit.
When that happens the center of convection (CoC) gets disturbed and portions of eye walls are exposed, this causes a hurricanes rotation to slow down which in turn causes the "CoC" to wobble, like a top does when its spin slows down.
When this happens, it becomes more difficult to track but once its back over water, as it is now, it will re-intensify, the pressure will drop and the eye wall will reform around the CoC and the storm will stabilize.
I wouldnt trust anything the models say until this happens, which they predict will be in the next 12-24 hours.
If I lived in New Orleans and had the ability to leave and a place to go, I would be leaving about right now or Friday at the latest, I would never allow myself to be put in the same negative, life threatening situation twice, especially in a city like New Orleans, where instead of helping each other in a dire situation, some people would rather take advantage of the situation.
Anyone remember the Iowa floods last year? City after City was completely underwater and were able to survive because they WORKED together instead of against each other.
In any case, the nature of my job requires me to go towards these storms and not away from them but not until AFTER theyve made land fall, which is why I have such a keen interest in them.

Latest advisory on the storm from NOAA..

www.nhc.noaa.gov

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...GUSTAV GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND HOLGUIN AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV...

Looks like it is just starting to move away from the Haiti area and expected to regain some strength, we should know more information on how well it is ragaining strength in the next advisory at 5PM EST.

New Orleans mayor, returning to the city from the DNC in Denver:

www.wwltv.com

New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin, who was a key speaker Wednesday morning at the Democratic National Convention, has decided to return to New Orleans immediately to closely monitor Hurricane Gustav.


Gustav, which has hit the southwest coast of Haiti and is threatening Cuba, appears to be on a likely course toward the U.S. Gulf region. The area, which will mark its third anniversary of the devastation of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on August 29, is still in the recovery stages.

reply to post by JacKatMtn


Nagin is an idiot and so is the former Governor of La, I cant believe the citizens of NOLA elected this incompetent fool back into office.
Im not going to de-rail my own thread with past arguments on this issue but I will say that if this city puts its safety in this idiots hands again, which I assume they will since they voted him back in.
I hope that it doesnt come to that though, this entire region (remember NOLA wasnt the only place hit) has suffered enough and as bad as it sounds, If Gustav must hit somewhere, then I hope it spares La, Ms and Al.
As a claims adjuster, I worked several claims in all of those states, including Tx, in 05 and Mississippi fared the worst out of the four, by a long shot.
It didnt just flood in Biloxi, the ocean actually came in, engulfed the city and carried it out to sea, much like the tsunamis did in indonesia.

Forgot to add the source link to the posts

Boy, Im sure I wouldve had some people calling for my head after a mistake like that.

The latest update came in a couple of hours ago and there was some new and fairly interesting news about its long range forecast. Being a little tired right now, instead of explaining the news in my own words Ill just copy and paste what they said, then as susual, provide the link to the source.

A ridge of high pressure is expected to force Gustav west through Friday. By Saturday, a trough of low pressure moving across the Midwest U.S. should weaken the ridge, and allow Gustav to turn north across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. The final landfall location of Gustav depends on the strength and speed of the trough. In this morning's runs, we now have some indication that this trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to pull Gustav to the coast by Monday. In fact, the NOGAPS model predicts Gustav will stall offshore the Alabama coast on Monday, before finally edging ashore three days later. The UKMET model is also much slower with its latest run, and slows Gustav down as it approaches the Louisiana/Texas coast on Monday. The latest HWRF model is also slower than the last run, and doesn't bring Gustav to the coast by the end of its forecast period (Monday). The HWRF foresees a Category 3 or 4 hurricane a few hundred miles south of the Louisiana coast on Monday. The latest ECMWF run is not much slower than the previous run, but does stall Gustav out over central Louisiana once it makes landfall near New Orleans Monday night. The latest GFDL model, though, is not much slower, and predicts landfall in Mississippi early Monday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. In summary, Gustav may slow down considerably just before landfall in the U.S., making its long-term track and landfall location very uncertain at this time.

In simpler terms, the speed and strength of the low pressure trough will make a huge difference in determining where this storm hits and how hard it will hit.
If it stalls just off shore for to long, it would dramatically weaken as well as set itself up for any future steering currents that have not been forecast yet.
Ive seen these storms literally stall off coasts and do loops for days until something strong enough comes along to push it ashore.

I know it sounds self centered but this is what I find depressing in this entire situation, but not the only thing obviously.

Gustav's potential impact on the oil and gas industry The price of U.S. crude oil has jumped about 2%, and the price of U.S. natural gas has increased 11% in the past two days, in anticipation that Gustav might rip through the oil and gas production areas of the Gulf of Mexico. About 25% of U.S. crude oil and 15% of its natural gas are produced in the Gulf of Mexico. As seen in Figure 3, the oil production areas are concentrated along the Louisiana and Texas coast. If Gustav makes a landfall on the right side of its cone of uncertainty, in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle, the oil and gas infrastructure might not be significantly affected. However, most of the cone of uncertainty lies in the major oil and gas producing areas, and I give a 60% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf.

Also, Id like to add that the damage that these storms do to homes, is what provides me with a job.
Despite popular belief I dont just make contact with insureds, making promises that cant be kept and write them a check for half of what would cover the damages.
I dont work for ANY Insurance Co, Im an indpendent adjuster and i get claims from many different companies so i have allegiances to no one.
I have and will never lowball an insured, aside from the fact that its wrong, I also get paid a percentage of the amount of the check that I write to them.

I provide a very important service to these people, I get to the affected area as soon as I can, sometimes even beating the so called first responders and Ive spent many hours, days and nights in my truck, working claims in the day time and using an inverter to enter the information into my laptop at night.
Despite all of the sorrow and sadness that I see first hand, its a great job and I wouldnt go back behind a desk again for nothing.

Just thought someone might wanna know why I have such a huge interest in these storms.


[edit on 8/27/2008 by Kr0n0s]

8pm update is out. Gus has picked up some forward momentum and is moving away from Haiti at ~7mph. Winds are down some but the pressure remains fairly low at 999mb, and he's coming back together after being torn up over Haiti.

The models are diverging again though the major ones still point to a landfall somewhere between the mid-coast of LA and the western edge of the FL panhandle.

What I don't like is how close the models are to this fella following a similar path to Camille.

I think in about 24-36 hours we should have a better idea as to where he's going and how strong he'll be when he gets there, but IMO everyone on the Gulf coast should be in planning mode. Refill any prescriptions, determine where you'd go if evacuated, fill up your car, and be aware of the evacuation routes/plans in your area. Don't panic, but don't be caught with your proverbial pants down.

He seems to be REALLY trying hard to get his act together again after several people (on another board) called for his "time of death" to be recorded

If you look on this IR satellite image, youll see a glob of red between Haiti and what I think is Jamaica, that is the center trying to reform. People do this every year with storms after hitting a Caribbean Island they declare them to be dead, only for them to be revived again within 24 hours, I guess it was some of the famed Haitian Voodoo this time around lol.




Also, here is a run by the tracking model HWRF, just click on the link, wait for the java to load then click the "FWD" button on the left.

HWRF

Thats about all for now, Im going to level up my pally on WoW

On a side note...the timing of this is frankly astounding. As this thing approaches New Orleans at the anniversary of Katrina and during the GOP convention, I hope everyone remembers the flubbed response and recovery and votes accordingly in November. But yeah, Nagin and Blanco suck too.

Models had a southern shift since the LLC's (low level circulation) center was repositioned or reformed based on latest recon.



The intensity forecast has been lowered for the next 48 hrs since encountering Haitian terrain, but the GDFL still has landfall at 120+kt as a cat 4.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING. GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 10 MB DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 215/7. THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER HAS CAUSED A BIG SOUTHWARD CHANGE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...AND GUSTAV IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA. more

[edit on 28-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

The storm slowly heading for Jamaica as it tries to regain strength:

Strengthening Gustav heads for Jamaica

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Tropical Storm Gustav was picking up steam and advancing toward Jamaica on Thursday after leaving at least 22 dead in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the National Hurricane Center said.

Gustav is expected to keep strengthening over the next 48 hours, the center said at 5 a.m. ET.

"Gustav could regain hurricane strength by Friday," the advisory said. It said the storm is reforming to the south and its center is expected to pass close to Jamaica later Thursday.

I hope everyone stays safe in the Jamaica and Cuba area as the storm makes its way through.


Many articles also of the emergency preparations in the US gulf area

Here's the google link for Gustav news sorted by date:

Gustav News



ed:sp



[edit on 8/28/2008 by JacKatMtn]

Latest advisory:

www.nhc.noaa.gov

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A STRONGER GUSTAV...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

I was thinking about the Katrina situation ..and how many of the poor were evacuated (sent other places where now they cannot afford to move back and some have nothing to move back to) and or drowned (took 4 or 5 days for help to come on purpose I believe) or were stranded during that mess (Which these ones are the ones left there now who will need to be removed so they can build up their Las Vegas style Elite place ) ..

Lets just say ...TPTB have figured out how to create hurricaines and manipulate them to go where they want (which I do believe this is possible) ...if this one goes to New Orleans ..... ..It would be another way to finish off (By drowning) or removing (Evacuating and sending them off to other cities so they cant come back ) the leftover poor people who survived the last one ...
So they can continue with their building of a Las Vegas type place for the Elite..
(which I also believe is a possibility)

reply to post by Kr0n0s


I was in Port Charlotte, FL when Hurricane Charlie tore us a new one. I'm pretty sure it was a cat. 3 when it made landfall. Thing is, they said it was going to Tampa, but it ended up right at our doorstep. Ever since then, I pay no attention to these "projected paths". I mean, you can get an idea where it might be going, but it does not give you a guarantee. They said earlier that its looking like it can become a cat. 3 by the time it gets into the gulf. I feel really bad for the people that have to deal with this storm. I never understood the power a storm can have and the destruction it can cause until Charlie. I just hope it does not hit New Orleans. I don't think they can deal with another hit.. at all.. I moved to PA in May because we had a baby and there is no way I was going to take that chance with hurricane season. I hope everything works out.

reply to post by KaginD

NHC official forecast and media hype are two different animals, and the later can get you killed.

Although Charley's path had the storm heading toward the Tampa area, Berg said the warning swath encompassed a much larger area -- as far south as Punta Gorda, in fact. The swath takes into account any errors, he said.

"We were not saying Tampa. We were saying the west coast of Florida," Berg said. The media's fixation with "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa," gave the public the wrong idea, he noted.

Everyone had "ample warning," Berg said. "It's just unfortunate that certain people didn't evacuate. source

The most accurate hurricane forecast available is still from the NHC.



National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification

Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone


[edit on 28-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

[It's just unfortunate that certain people didn't evacuate.]


Alot of people cannot afford to even leave their houses ..(No car maybe ,no money maybe,no gas in car,and nowhere to evacuate to ) and after the Katrina fiasco with everyone going to that dome ....I would not go to the evacuation centers either ...I would rather die in a hurricaine I think than be in that situation as those people were ..

Its sad really when you think about it ..isnt it ....

And even waiting for buses to evacuate you ...will get you drowned wont they ?Since those buses never showed up ..........