This is another update to this thread. It is now one month from the election and the numbers are starting to gel. They can still move, but they
generally do not change to much. The fight is on for the undecideds as they are starting to pick their candidates. This has been a rollercoaster of an
election. Sen Obama was looking like the one to beat during the Democratic conventions. Sen McCain then pulled an ace out of his sleeve called Gov
Palin. The numbers moved in favor of Sen McCain, and it looked like he would be the one to beat. Gov Palin has gotten the party hardliners in tow, but
she has not won over many independents. Then came the financial meltdown that saw part of Sen McCain's campaign meltdown too. "Suspending" his
campaign to get a bail out plan did not work, as he now states he is against the one he just voted for. The debate coming up is about the economy and
that is not his strong point.
After a lackluster first debate, Sen Obama had some good moments and showed he knew about foreign policy. He will need to get more aggressive in the
next debate, and also have points on what he will do to fix the economy.
The electoral count is changing as some states were taken out of play by both candidates.
Sen Obama's strategy is to try to keep the blue states blue. Michigan was recently abandoned by the McCain campaign, but the Obama campaign will keep
campaigning there. They have a great organization there and plan to utilize it come vote time. Minnesota has a couple of polls that show Sen McCain
with a slight lead, and Sen Obama will have to spend more there to keep the state blue. He has a much larger organization there, and his people will
get out the vote. Wisconsin seems to be a strange play for the McCain campaign as the Obama campaign is heavily organized there too.
Pennsylvania was a prize Sen McCain was trying to take, but Sen Obama is strengthening his numbers there every day. More organization, spending and
campaigning is paying off for Sen Obama. While Pennsylvania went to the weak Sen Kerry in 2004, it cannot be guaranteed of staying blue. I see Sen
Obama winning PA, MN, MI, and WI. I also see Sen McCain abandoning PA in the next week to focus on Ohio and Florida.
Ohio is the prize, and the blue collar voters are being targeted by both of the campaigns. NAFTA and the meltdown will really hurt Sen McCain, and the
makeup of voters is much like that of PA and MI, though the state tilts a little more conservative. A Democratic governor helps when campaigning in a
New Hampshire was a worry for Sen Obama at first, but it seems to be heavily in his favor. New Mexico and Colorado are moving more in Sen Obama's
favor too. With Iowa turning blue, Sen McCain is trying to woo Minnesota to make up for some lost points. For a while he was also trying to woo
Washington state and Oregon. Those states have tilted heavily blue again, and Sen McCain will have to spend heavily to keep Nevada and Colorado.
Indiana, which has been a Republican stronghold for a while, is also in play. Virginia has polls that show Sen Obama with a big lead.
Patrick Buchanan had predicted Virginia would turn blue in 2008 because of moving population trends. They described Virginia and a few other states as
purple. Sen McCain cannot afford to lose Virginia, and now has to spend his limited resources there to keep it (along with North Carolina and
I see Sen McCain abandoning the states Kerry one in 2004 to defend the states that may turn blue this time. In 2004, Kerry had to abandon most of the
states and defend the ones Al Gore won. He staked all his hopes in Ohio, and lost. This time, Sen Obama's campaign will pick up many former red
states to make Ohio a nice prize, but not a necessary one.
Sen McCain has to have a strong debate on Tuesday as the last one will be good for both of them. He also has to make some tough decisions, as he has
to defend more than to take this time around.
Edited to add electoral count sites.
The Political Dashboard has Sen Obama with 330 electoral votes:
FiveThirtyEight has Sen Obama with a lead in electoral votes also:
[edit on 10/4/2008 by kidflash2008]