Battleground States: Which way will they go?

As we all know, the election is about electoral votes. This will be a close race, and will look similar to 2004. With population shifts, and an African American candidate (one of Sen. Kerry's problems was no enthusiastic support) getting a sizable vote in the South, some states are now considered battleground when they were comfortably red or blue four years ago. What do you consider to be a battleground state and who do you think will win it?

Michigan: Won narrowly by Sen Kerry last election, this is a battleground state again. There is a sizable Muslim population and the African American vote will turn out very strong for Sen. Obama. Sen. McCain has to try to woo the Reagan Democrats big time to win Michigan this time. Sen. Biden is very popular among the union and blue collar workers and will campaign heavily to keep Michigan blue. Sen Obama will probably win Michigan.

Ohio: Pres. Bush won this in 2004 by over 100,000 votes. Again, the African American community is actually excited about Sen. Obama. Sen. McCain again will woo the Reagan Democrats and the Democrats will trot out the NAFTA treaty which is extremely unpopular. With Sen. Biden's help, Sen. Obama will win Ohio by over 100,000 votes this time.

Indiana: usually red state is surprisingly close. A sign of a problem for Sen. McCain will be Indiana not being immediately called in his column. Sen. McCain will win it by a slim margin.

Virginia: This usually red state has seen many Democratic leaning persons move into it. Sen. McCain may abandon other battleground states to keep Virginia red. Sen. Obama is going to campaign hard in this state to turn it blue. Sen. Obama may win this by a squeaker.

Georgia and Louisiana: two red Southern states that Sen. Obama will go after. Georgia has its own Bob Barr running for president on the Libertarian ticket. Add in a large African American population, and this state has a big potential to swing blue. This could help Sen. Obama if he were to lose Ohio and Michigan.
Louisiana: With a population of over 30% African Americans who will line up to enthusiastically vote for Sen. Obama, this red state has the potential to go blue. Sen. McCain will have to spend money in both these states to keep them. Prediction: upset in Georgia for Sen. Obama, and a squeaker in Louisiana for McCain.

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado: These red states have blue state people moving in them and large Hispanic populations. Sen. Obama is even going after Montana, a thought that would of been laughed at four years ago. This is why Sen. McCain has to woo Hispanic voters, as they will make a difference. Look for Sen. Obama to win New Mexico (a squeaker for Pres. Bush four years ago), Nevada, and Colorado.

New Hampshire, Iowa, Missouri: Again, Sen. Obama would like to get all three of these states in his column. New Hampshire will go his way because of Sen. Biden (in a close election since they do like Sen. McCain). Iowa will go to Sen. Obama as it is close to Illinois and he is popular there. He will campaign hard and have them remember he one that state in the primary. Missouri is one of those states he needs to turn blue. He won the primary in the cities, but needs to shore up the urban areas. Look for Sen. Clinton to campaign in the urban areas to help him. Another close one for Sen. Obama winning by a slim margin.
Florida: Hard to tell how this state will turn as they love Hillary, but are uncertain about Sen. Obama. Sen. Clinton will also campaign heavily in Florida to get the elderly and Jewish voters behind Sen. Obama. Sen. Biden is popular and will also be dispatched to this state often. If Sen. Obama wins the other states he needs, Florida would be a nice prize (especially to get back at the 2000 race), but not necessary. Look for Florida to go blue as Sen. Obama's enthusiastic voters come out and the Jewish voters are won over by Sen. Biden.

I think Sen. Obama will win this fall, but it will take a lot of hard work. They have to keep the enthusiasm for him up, and get out the vote. He ran an excellent primary campaign and has to really step it up going toe to toe with Sen. McCain.

A lot of you will disagree with me, so let us see how you think the battleground states will turn out.

Excellent post and nice commentary!

I think McCain will take Virginia (13), Georgia (15), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), Montana (3), Louisiana (9), Missouri (11) Florida (27) and Iowa (7).

I think Obama will take Michigan (17), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Indiana (11), Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4).

Minnesota (10)? Obama.
North Carolina (15)? McCain.

297 for Obama
241 for McCain

Now I can look here after the election to see how wrong I was!

I'll wager 20,000 ATS Points

McCain: Virginia (13), Georgia (15), Nevada (5), Montana (3), Floriday (27), Iowa (7), Indiana (11)


Obama: Michigan (17), Ohio (20), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9) New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Louisiana (9), Missouri (11) Colorado (9) and New Hampshire (4).

is my prediction

I am not going to wager any points on this one!

I do think Sen. Obama will win Nevada because it has a sizable Hispanic population and he is crushing Sen. McCain in that support. Popular Gov. Bill Richardson will be dispatched to those states in the west to get out the vote.

I am basing a lot of my calculations on the minority vote. All my African American and Hispanic friends are excited about Sen. Obama in a way not seen before. You are going to see a huge turnout like never before.
If Sen. Obama can get the youth vote (Kerry lost because their turnout wasn't as high as some thought it would be) in droves, it could be a popular vote landslide for him.
A high voter turnout always helps the Democrat, and that is what they need.
Sen. Obama will really go after Montana, Florida and especially Virginia, which are considered purple states. Sen. McCain will have to spend money in those areas to remain competitive.
I also forgot North Carolina, a state Sen. Obama is going after. A large African American population, he needs only 35% of the white vote to win it.

In a single choice, Sen. McCain has changed the battleground. I think when he chose Gov. Palin for his VP choice, he brought back Montana, Nevada and Colorado back to his column. Indiana will also stay red, and so will Florida (most of the disgruntled Hillary voters are from Florida). Oregon is now back into the play (something Sen. Obama does not need). Georgia and Louisiana will probably stay red, as the conservative base will now vote for Sen. McCain and not Bob Barr. Some of the conservative base was going to vote for Bob Barr, but with a conservative running mate will support Sen. McCain all the way.
As a soccer mom, she will put Michigan and Ohio back into play, along with New Hampshire. Sen. McCain will have to play up his support for Hispanics to increase the minority vote to help go over the top.

When Sen. McCain said we would be surprised, he was not kidding.

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
I think McCain will take... New Mexico (5)
I think Obama will take... New Mexico (5)

Oops! I got confused!
I think it will be Obama.

I will post another battleground map as the race gets settled. Once the bumps of the conventions and Gov. Palin as VP sinks in, the race will really go into effect. It is hard to look at polls, as many do not have Bob Barr or Ralph Nader in them, and they will effect it in differing ways. Sen. Obama is going to spend more money than any other Democratic candidate in a while as he has staff in many states that are going to be sought after. These include: Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida and Montana. He also has to keep Michigan and Pennsylvania. Ohio of course is the main attraction (just like in 2004). The thinking is to keep the McCain campaign spending money in defending the states that were won by Republicans in 2004.
I still believe Sen. Obama will win the popular vote, but the electoral vote will be close.

So far I'm ready to call 2 of them, as you see in my sig.

But that's pretty much all you need to know right there. If McCain loses Ohio, he can't lose even ONE other battleground state- not even Michigan.

No Republican has EVER gone to the White House without the blessing of the Buckeye State.

Never the less, I will continue to put up the swing state posts and call them all as time allows.

As a North Carolinian, I think this state may go blue for the first time in many years. It will take some work for the Obama campaign, but it can be done.

During the primaries Obama did well in the "Research Triangle"--Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill--and on the east coast. He also won most of the big cities. There is a large African American population in this state, but not large enough to carry it by themselves.

Here in the western part of the state, Hillary led because she ran a very smart campaign. Probably because it is mostly rural and in the Appalachians (a lot of working class white people) Obama did not even travel to this region. Hillary Clinton made many campaign stops and spent a lot of time here. This was not lost on us, as the last time any politician even bothered with us was when George H.W. Bush appeared briefly at the Apple Festival on his way through the state. On election day I got three pre-recorded phone messages from the Clinton campaign and not one from the Obama camp, though I am a registered Democrat.

I understand why the Obama people would think a region like ours is something of a write off, but he won in the one western county where Michelle Obama stopped to make a speech. When people are treated like they matter, often they respond.

Joe Biden is also an asset in this part of the country, as he is perceived as a down-to-earth man with working class roots. Maybe he should make a few stops here as well.

If Obama takes a page from Hillary Clinton's playbook, he just may turn this red state blue.

[edit on 7-9-2008 by Sestias]

Obama does have a problematic tendency to write off rural areas, and frankly it reflects very poorly on him and perpetuates the "out of touch, rich liberal" image that was so damaging to the previous two democratic presidential campaigns.

I think he is concerned that he won't be understood and only stands to get himself into more "clinging to guns and god" type trouble if he tries too hard for them. Biden could do a lot of good for him in those areas.

If Biden goes to Central and Western NC, shows reciepts for American-made furniture, maybe that's the extra shove Obama needs.

reply to post by Sestias


I do think the Obama campaign knows this all to well. The primaries were different, and they ran that campaign to win the primary. Sen. Obama should go to the rural areas, since those were the areas that Jesse Jackson did very well in 1988 (yes, that Jesse Jackson!). The Reverend Jackson spoke to the poor areas and to farmers and did extremely well in the white vote. To win the states, Sen. Obama has to campaign hard and continuously, showing he cares about the people. He should talk of his experience as a community organizer. North Carolina and Virginia are among the states Democrats hope to contest this time around. Sen. Kerry made the mistake of writing off too many states, making him have to win all his battleground states. With Sen. Obama winning Iowa and New Mexico, he would love to get a few more in his hat. Then Ohio would be a nice prize, but not a necessity to win.

This is another update to this thread. It is now one month from the election and the numbers are starting to gel. They can still move, but they generally do not change to much. The fight is on for the undecideds as they are starting to pick their candidates. This has been a rollercoaster of an election. Sen Obama was looking like the one to beat during the Democratic conventions. Sen McCain then pulled an ace out of his sleeve called Gov Palin. The numbers moved in favor of Sen McCain, and it looked like he would be the one to beat. Gov Palin has gotten the party hardliners in tow, but she has not won over many independents. Then came the financial meltdown that saw part of Sen McCain's campaign meltdown too. "Suspending" his campaign to get a bail out plan did not work, as he now states he is against the one he just voted for. The debate coming up is about the economy and that is not his strong point.
After a lackluster first debate, Sen Obama had some good moments and showed he knew about foreign policy. He will need to get more aggressive in the next debate, and also have points on what he will do to fix the economy.
The electoral count is changing as some states were taken out of play by both candidates.

Sen Obama's strategy is to try to keep the blue states blue. Michigan was recently abandoned by the McCain campaign, but the Obama campaign will keep campaigning there. They have a great organization there and plan to utilize it come vote time. Minnesota has a couple of polls that show Sen McCain with a slight lead, and Sen Obama will have to spend more there to keep the state blue. He has a much larger organization there, and his people will get out the vote. Wisconsin seems to be a strange play for the McCain campaign as the Obama campaign is heavily organized there too.
Pennsylvania was a prize Sen McCain was trying to take, but Sen Obama is strengthening his numbers there every day. More organization, spending and campaigning is paying off for Sen Obama. While Pennsylvania went to the weak Sen Kerry in 2004, it cannot be guaranteed of staying blue. I see Sen Obama winning PA, MN, MI, and WI. I also see Sen McCain abandoning PA in the next week to focus on Ohio and Florida.
Ohio is the prize, and the blue collar voters are being targeted by both of the campaigns. NAFTA and the meltdown will really hurt Sen McCain, and the makeup of voters is much like that of PA and MI, though the state tilts a little more conservative. A Democratic governor helps when campaigning in a state.
New Hampshire was a worry for Sen Obama at first, but it seems to be heavily in his favor. New Mexico and Colorado are moving more in Sen Obama's favor too. With Iowa turning blue, Sen McCain is trying to woo Minnesota to make up for some lost points. For a while he was also trying to woo Washington state and Oregon. Those states have tilted heavily blue again, and Sen McCain will have to spend heavily to keep Nevada and Colorado. Indiana, which has been a Republican stronghold for a while, is also in play. Virginia has polls that show Sen Obama with a big lead.
Patrick Buchanan had predicted Virginia would turn blue in 2008 because of moving population trends. They described Virginia and a few other states as purple. Sen McCain cannot afford to lose Virginia, and now has to spend his limited resources there to keep it (along with North Carolina and Indiana).
I see Sen McCain abandoning the states Kerry one in 2004 to defend the states that may turn blue this time. In 2004, Kerry had to abandon most of the states and defend the ones Al Gore won. He staked all his hopes in Ohio, and lost. This time, Sen Obama's campaign will pick up many former red states to make Ohio a nice prize, but not a necessary one.
Sen McCain has to have a strong debate on Tuesday as the last one will be good for both of them. He also has to make some tough decisions, as he has to defend more than to take this time around.

Edited to add electoral count sites.

The Political Dashboard has Sen Obama with 330 electoral votes:

news.yahoo.com...

FiveThirtyEight has Sen Obama with a lead in electoral votes also:

www.fivethirtyeight.com...

[edit on 10/4/2008 by kidflash2008]