posted on Aug, 27 2008 @ 07:33 PM
I don't know if anyone is ready to go for the big taboo and skip ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire, but they don't have to do that to have a big
Feb 5 Becoming unofficial national primary day
The ever-shortening primary calendar has already claimed victims in past elections. In 2000, John McCain scored early wins in New Hampshire and
Michigan, but then was quickly overwhelmed by George W. Bush, who had more money and a larger organization. In 2004, Howard Dean, who entered the
primary season with what looked like Big Mo', had little time to recover from a disappointing performance in the Iowa caucuses and his infamous
"scream," allowing John Kerry to coast to the nomination.
While wins in New Hampshire and Iowa can give a candidate plenty of free media, these days that may not be enough to overcome a well-prepared,
well-moneyed campaign that has had ads and organization in place for months in all the states with Feb. 5 contests. The wave that Big Mo' requires
would not have time to build.
It will begin with a continued rush to Feb 5, but that wont be enough for swing states whose legislatures are under the control of one party. That
basically means states that are temporarily considered swing states as they transition from Red to Blue, like Colorado (moved up to Feb 5 this year,
both houses of the legislature and the governor's mansion held by Dems) will seek to steer their party even further in the direction that has brought
about their rise to power by pushing their primaries forward to increase their say over the presidential nomination race. They will probably aim for
somewhere close to the Nevada primary. There is however no guarantee that someone won't stop them.
I suspect that this will not be allowed after 2012 however, if it is allowed then (which is less likely in my opinion if we have a Democratic
incumbent in 2012). The end result that I forsee is that the parties will let the problem go just a little bit too far, then pull it back to what they
consider "just far enough" in order to effectively entrench the major candidates while making it appear as though the national committees are
fighting for fairness and order. What they will probably end up doing, whenever they feel things have gone far enough, is set the new Super Tuesday
deadline at the 3rd Tuesday in January (between the 15th and the 21st, depending on the year), in hopes of getting the nomination clinched as quickly
as possible by the strongest candidate coming in, so they can get right to work on building their platforms and warchests with a minimum of 8 months,
possibly 9, before the general election.