So far, Obama leads history of polls

From the beginning, I will have to say that I do not know everything at all from politics of US, since I am a foreigner. However, since we are allowed to stay on facts, here comes:

www.realclearpolitics.com... president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

What you basically see is that historically speaking, Obama has been winning all the time, while McCain has been unable to keep up. I'd say that history repeats itself (and I speak in context of history, mind you) in a sense that unless a scandal comes first, both of these candidates are in a tie. There have been, as far as I know, no big scandals for either of candidates. They are both also able to maintain a steady 40+% acceptance, and have been for months or so. This means nothing, though, but I did want to give a reference to check acceptance ratings a bit before going any further.

McCain has proposed immediate expensing for capital investment, which means that investment capital can be deducted in the year it is incurred, like all other business expenses, rather than spread over many years under arbitrary depreciation schedules

source: townhall.com... rsus_mccain_on_the_economy

Basically, then, McCain wants companies to be able to spread and divide their stocks further by giving a carrot of less taxes for doing that. Since we know that when companies go into stockmarket, and whenever a company of good profit changes its number of stocks, prizes will increase, this would actually benefit economy. This happens because companies would have an increased motivation to do this kind of thing.

What does not work however is that federal tax income would go down. Basic taxes paid by investors are not exactly of same amount than what companies would get by doing this, and this would also increase number of lowering prizes due to dividing number of stocks and then selling it.

reply to post by rawsom


Truthfully I believe that Obama lead has to do more with the exposure that Obama is getting from main stream media as he is been taking in as an oddity, the first black presidential candidate, younger than average candidate and on top of that with a name that brings memories of a war on terror.

But still he is a new face in the block and that gives him an advantage.

Now on the proposed capital investment by McCain that one is new to me and more research needs to be done before I make an opinion.

reply to post by rawsom


Hi rawsom.
It seems that your link is not working.
I just wanted to help you out with another site with great trending stats and graphs.
On the left of the page there's an Obama v McCain historical chart.

intrade.com

[edit on 8/22/2008 by schrodingers dog]

Now that there are strict rules I don't dare to post and do not know how to write, nor does anybody else either. This works great :-D

About those charts, sorry for that. Apparently that site does not allow any kind of linking to its articles, you'll have to dig through main page. In the red bar on left, there's a link called 'National (RCP avg)' under Latest Polls. Click that. Its there.

Honestly, poll history means nothing. Anyone remember that "Dewey beats Truman" headline. All that matters is the electoral college. To top it off McCain is up by five, for the moment. Momentum will shift at least 2 more times- after each conventions. It's still to early to even consider poll acurracy. It would be interesting to analyze the pre convention poll history vs. the post convention polls vs, the endgame.

reply to post by rawsom


The battleground is set in a few states:
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Georgia
Montana
New Mexico
Nevada
Colorado

Those are just some of the states that now come into play because of moving patterns in the last few years. Kerry did rather well when you think about it as he was not a strong candidate and not that well liked in his party. The Democrats have a strong team in Obama/Biden, and they know to campaign right after the convention, not take an ill timed break that cost Dukakis the election.
Polls also under represent minority voters. They will be out strongly in this election because of historic nomination. The polls will show a dead heat, and in many areas, (especially the South) look for some upsets.