Tropical Storm Fay Has Florida In Her Sight

A new tropical storm formed developed this afternoon in the Caribbean near the Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory

TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

Fay is expected to visit some part of Florida early next week right in time for the start of school and is expected to be either a strong Tropical Storm of weak Category 1 hurricane

Oh good, love a good storm now and then, long as it doesn't match Ivan or Dennis.

Current Forecast Path has ALL of Florida in the cone.

Looks like this is in that region where a LOT of strenghthing can occur...

Fay Could, as i expect, drift further to the west...

Hitting somewhere between Texas and Florida...


I have no PROFESONAL experience in storm predicting, but, from what ive see this year so far, i expect this to track to the WEST of the current cone...


The storm is curently moving WEST at 14mph...
The storm WILL make a northward turn...

But WHEN is the question... these forcasts USSALY perdict a north turn too soon...


Personaly, i give it a ~30% chance that this will make lanfall to the WEST of New Orleans...

I know it's not a popular view and I certainly hope no one suffers any losses but the fact is - the southeast U.S. could use a moderate tropical storm to ease the severe drought. It's pretty serious.

I can tell you that South East Florida is watching Fay very cautiously right now. Everyone seems to be going through their usual plans for this weekend and while grocery stores seem to be busy this morning it is not hectic or crazy like in past storms. There was ample water and canned goods on the shelves when I went earlier today. I hope that means that everyone is has been taking this seriously and have been prepared this June 1st.

Right now would be the time to clean up the backyard, and get organized in the event the path of Fay turns out to be headed straight your way. Either way though, most of Florida should experience some sort of weather from Fay if stays on the current projected track.

The Weather center has remodified the 'Cone' to show more to the East...


The Storm is still movig 14mph west...

Still no turn north...

Look here

I think it going to get into the gulf, and Stall out, or frop in speed my ALOT...

THEN move north...
This COULD get huge if it gets to the gulf and sits there...

Well, right now, she has our little micro-country in her sights [Cayman Islands]. I saw the potential weaking in the ridge when she was not yet a 'she' outside of Puerto Rico. First of all, I am no meteorologist, just a weather weenie. I think the low NW of Fay has a narrow window to effect her direction, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if she tracked more NW of the current model probabilities. I think she'll go Cat 1 tonight, having emerged into our warmer waters.

Something strange [to me] TWC said today that the COC of Fay should emerge into open waters later on today..... well, I kinda think the center of circulation has been south of Hispainola for a while. How could it encounter those huge mountains and still intensify? Besides which, it looked to me like the COC was below Hispainola early EARLY this morning; certainly the convection was over the land mass.

I had to snicker at The Weather Channel...... they almost always, year after year, come up with new permutations of our country. This year, it was Northern Cayman Islands. Okeydokeyfine. Better than "Grand Cayman Islands" as in the last two years.

As an aside, I think I should already get partial credit for this "prediction" which I made on 17-7-2008, on this thread: www.abovetopsecret.com...

1) On August 17, 2008, a cat 2 hurricane will pass between the larger island and the sister islands of the Cayman Islands; from there it encounters severe shear, and makes landfall on the western portion of Cuba as a TS, where it is mostly torn apart, landing again on the Gulf Coast as an aggressive tropical wave.

reply to post by worldwatcher


You're in Florida to eh? I'm in the Panhandle.
Sounds pretty stupid, I know, but I'm looking forward to the surf it'll kick up.
Kinda hoping the storm never moves beyond a tropical, or at least stays at a one.

A Charlie-like track would not suprise me; I have to worry a bit for those in the Keys right now, although those that want to evacuate usually do so early, and the "Conchs" stay and move to upper floors, and somehow usually seem to make it out alive. They're a special breed, those folks. I understand.

If this storm moves towards us, I'll post readings here on this thread. If that happens, folks, please know in advance that we are probably the most prepared folks I know of. We can close up the whole house in less than ten minutes, and as a matter of course will load up the van -- just in case -- with goods and can be to our cave in less than two minutes. I say this becuase well-intentioned people have in the past chided me for being online when I should be doing something different. Less than Cat 2, we stay at home, and have been through worse with no damage.

Not liking the SSTs of the Gulf. Around here has had SSTs hot enough to sustain a hurricane since late May. ewg. Hoping for some serious rain. Also hoping that Cuba and the U.S. don't get slammed.

Completely off-topic, and I hope you'll forgive me Worldwatcher, but I gave you a star, and your AV changed. I gave you a flag and it changed again. WHOOF! I don't know how you arranged the strings such that they'd change, but that was impressive and very entertaining Gave me pause for a second there.

Okay, on topic (I am such a polished butt-kisser) winds here are a gentle 14 mph sustained. Seas are calmed down from earlier today and the pressure is 29.81 and falling.

DATAbuoy! goo' boy! www.ndbc.noaa.gov...

I'm in Tampa. Seems like the current track brings it my way . Call me crazy but I look forward to it.


With it being this early into the game though, I doubt it will hit the area its currently project to hit. I see it taking the same route Charley did.

Looks like SE Florida is going to be spared a direct hit, but we're going to be on the "dirty and wet" side of Fay.

As of 3:30pm today, Schools are closed on Monday in Broward and Miami Dade Counties and in Monroe County schools are closed on both Monday and Tuesday.

Also word on the street from friends and neighbors who actually went to the stores today is that Walmart and Home Depot shelves are completely bare of water and that Publix was "super busy" today.

As long as Fay remains a weak Tropical Storm, I too welcome her in Florida, the rains could us a huge amount of good. However I'm very cautious of the period of time between Cuba and landfall where ever in Florida, I hope that Fay doesn't intensify too much during that time.

Good luck to all and stay prepared and informed with your local news coverage, this storm and it's path can change at any time.

I went to bed last night, with this being a Tampa or Panhandle storm and now it looks like it wants to be a South Florida event again

Per the earlier advisories, Tropical Storm Warnings are now in place for Broward and Miami Dade counties. We are also in a Flood Watch.

It has been raining heavily off and on all morning but so far winds have been light. I seriously hope all our Florida members have taken this storm seriously and already have their preparations in place.

Reminder also, while I welcome photography and local coverage, please do not take unnecessary risks, your safety is worth more than any picture or property.

At 8:24pm tonight Ponce Inlet, Florida reported winds of 72.5 mph. This is the highest winds I've found for Florida for this storm. This was obviously part of a severe squall line.

www.wunderground.com...

Scroll down to around 20:00 and watch how the readings change.

I was wroung in my guess that Fay would trend westward....


Or was i a week too soon...


Fay, after stalling out over florida, is starting to drift to the west...


I hope that Lake Okachobe is getting full...