The Singularity Is Near!, page
Pages:
ATS Members have flagged this thread 0 times
Topic started on 15-8-2008 @ 12:01 AM by innominate
I just finished reading "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil and my Weltanschauung has changed irrevocably. The main premise is that humanity will change very rapidly in this century, indeed 'rapid' is an unequivocal understatement. In the book Kurweil argues that a nanotechnology revolution in the 2020's will result in complete immunity and preservation of human bodies and organs. Biotechnology and more specific the field of Biogerentology lead most notably by Aubrey De Grey will find ways to treat and even reverse the effects of aging (in fact tremendous progress has made just recently in mice: www.abc.net.au... ... te=science) so that by approximately 2030 biological immortality will have become feasible (subtracting of course the possibility of accidential death).
This phase of the Transhumanist paradigm shift is only the beginning however. With the rapid growth in processing capacity derived from Moore's Law and new processing technologies including three-dimensional processing, a la the human brain, and quantum computing this trend is expected to continue exponentially almost asymptotic. Very soon computers will match the processing capacity of the human brain. After this it should be technically feasible to upload a human brain in a simulated environment every bit as real as our own. By "backing-up" our consciousness we can assure that any accident that may befall us does not result in our untimely death. In this simulated environment we can take any shape we want and transform the shapes of those around us anyway we want, activities deemed unnecessary can be removed entirely such as the cumbersome tasks of breathing, sleeping, and defecating. The simulation will be so real that it could not be differentiated from what we perceive to be "reality," through a interconnected communications system such as the internet we would be able to access any knowledge at any time and store it in ourselves indefinitely.
Ray Kurzweil estimates the time for the actual "singularity" at 2045 although considering humans will already be essentially immortal waiting wouldn't be as unbearable. Once the singularity happens a single $1000 computer will have the processing capacity of the entire human race (again this follows Moore's Law trends). At this time AI will take over as the most capable intelligence on the planet, and since the distinction will be blurred between AI and cyborgs (the fate of the human species) there will probably be no dystopia ending of the human race. Around the time of the singularity physical existence will probably be deemed antiquarian because the human species will be able to control physical "reality" through simulated "reality." Furthermore technology (likely in the form of advanced nanobots) will be able to change all physical matter into pure information. Physicists have determined that a one kilogram object has the calculating power of 5x10^50 cps (through quantum calculation at Plank's length) which is many many times more than the total mental capacities of all humans that have ever existed (a human has calculation power of approximately 10^16 cps). Kurzweil asserts that the ultimate fate of the universe will be to transform into a giant, efficient computer, and that we will be able to be anyone, do anything we want in the simulation, to have complete freedom for all eternity and a complete understanding of the laws of physics, mathematics, our neurology and how and why we exist. Furthermore (as if that wasn't enough) we will be able to physically manipulate the laws of physics, retrieve the consciousness of historical figures, and preoccupy ourselves in simulations akin to Earth.

:Brain Asplodes:

On a personal note I'm 19 and I feel absolutely honored to have been born in this time, as an atheist and nihilist technology interjects whole new meaning to life and understanding. For more information go here:
en.wikipedia.org...


reply posted on 15-8-2008 @ 12:42 AM by innominate
reply to post by declassified


I don't think its money that is the primary issue, its resources. Wars cost money and use government resources otherwise reserved for research and not enough kids are studying math and science. But I digress, I should have asked some good topic initiating questions in my post but used up the maximal amount of characters so here are some:
What are your opinions of this (just because you aren't able to fully grasp it doesn't mean its implausable)?
Do you think we could be living in a simulated environment (futurist Nick Bostrom puts the odds at around 20%)
Is the idea of omniscience and complete immortality appealing to you?

Discuss!



reply posted on 15-8-2008 @ 09:03 AM by innominate
reply to post by GrayFox


Technology is progressing because there are immense amounts of profit to be made in the sector. The reason Moore's law is so accurate is because people constantly want higher processing capacity and so chip makers like Intel have to work to keep up with demand. Its not unreasonable to predict with these trends that by 2020 a $1000 computer will have the cps (calculations per second) rate of the human brain as well as higher memory capacity. This talk about money is a deviation, the singularity is an inevitability due to the fact that people prefer expediency and convenience over labor. Scientists are working around the clock because this field is so profitable, to think that there are monetary limitations is very naive.


reply posted on 15-8-2008 @ 09:05 AM by innominate
reply to post by Cyberbian


Nice post, I agree. Although I think there will be an infinite range of entertainment venues in the future. Notable simulations akin to Earth.


reply posted on 16-8-2008 @ 07:25 AM by atlasastro
Originally posted by innominate
reply to post by GrayFox


This talk about money is a deviation, the singularity is an inevitability due to the fact that people prefer expediency and convenience over labor. Scientists are working around the clock because this field is so profitable, to think that there are monetary limitations is very naive.
In your OP and in your comment above your are seeing this from a purely western perspective. It is limited.The vast majority of the third worlds population do not prefer expediency and convienience of labour, infact they prefer getting a little bit of food and water, and perhaps shelter. There is also the tendancy for fundamentalism to grow in conjunction with scientific and technological breakthroughs. Notice how advanced we are today, and how many fundamentalists there are. So there is a question of opposition to the breakthroughs and predictions that you highlite in your OP. And the quetion of wether it will be universal or simply another western dream. Time will tell if these are "inevitable" or not, just IMHO. Great post. Very interesting.





reply posted on 2-12-2011 @ 09:01 PM by neotech1neothink
What if we were to pose the notion that a sort of Singularity–albeit a localized one–could have occurred already on our planet? This is a difficult notion to consider, since many argue it would be entirely unlikely, if not impossible, for something so remarkable and transformational to have occurred among only a select group, without the rest of the planet’s population being affected. However, what if some secretive organization could have, for instance, utilized suppressed technology for the last several decades, some of which likely even would have resulted in reports of advanced aircraft we call UFOs?

Almost without a doubt there are a variety of “secret” innovations that occur annually, and due to factors like their economic impact on a global scale, many are kept secret for purposes of not derailing existing markets (this is especially the case with the oil industry). If any one group could have access to remarkable technologies the general public didn’t know about, they might also have benefited from them in ways the populace would not.

In general terms this outlines the possibility, at very least, regarding how a “localized” Singularity might even occur here on Earth… and if such were to ever be the case, how might people like you or I interpret things if we did manage to catch a fleeting glimpse of, for instance, strange objects or foreign-looking aircraft buzzing through our skies?

In essence, either of these hypothetical scenarios, each involving greater than present human intelligence, could also outline the way a post-Singularity intelligence might already be present on Earth. Thus, rather than being right around the corner, evidence of a technological Singularity expected within next several decades might already be visible, on occasion, in places like our skies. The “Singularity” is actually here, given such criteria, and the evidence for a vast and strange future wildly different from our own has been right here alongside us for quite some time already.


reply posted on 6-12-2011 @ 05:50 PM by Ajax84
reply to post by innominate


Didn't you know? The Singularity already happened a long time ago. We are just in one of the ancestor simulations:


Pages:     ^^TOP^^



Starship Enterprise could be a reality by 2032, engineer says
  Posted 13 days ago with 77 member flags
WARNING: 3D TV\'s Possibly Causing Strokes and Vision Loss
  Posted 19 days ago with 27 member flags
I want to build a free energy generator! Suggestions?
  Posted 15 days ago with 20 member flags
World’s longest-running experiment now with webcam
  Posted 14 days ago with 19 member flags
Bye Bye Co2 and global warming
  Posted 5 days ago with 16 member flags
Big Oil Vs. Plasma Battery Technology - Guess who is winning?
  Posted 12 days ago with 14 member flags
Schoolboy \'genius\' solves puzzles posed by Sir Isaac Newton
  Posted 0 days ago with 11 member flags