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The Probability Of Contacting Intelligent Alien Life

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posted on Aug, 14 2008 @ 11:08 AM
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A short survey about the possibility of extraterrestrial life.


This survey deals with potential intelligent life. That exludes primitive microbial life forms which may well be discovered within our own solar system.

The Probability of Civilizations in the Universe
From the Atlas of the Universe we can see that our visible universe - which spans over 14 billion light years - contains an estimated 30 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 stars, or 30 billion trillion stars. Within that astronomical number of stars it seems mathematically inconceivable that there wouldn't be many other civilizations somewhere.
( For details see An Atlas to the Universe )

However, it is also obvious that we will never be able to communicate over such an enormous length of time, and any intelligent signals over such an immense space would diminish practically to zero before reaching us - for it would be swallowed up by millions of intervening galaxies.

Our own galaxy - the Milky Way - contains 200 billion stars, but it is still to large for effective communications, because its size - 90 000 light years - would require 180 000 years for a two way communication.

The Probability of finding other Civilizations
For practical reasons we have to confine our search for other civilizations to our immediate neighborhood. If we reduce our search to an area of 12,5 light years the number of stars shrinks dramatically to about 33 stars, out of which most are red dwarfs. That leaves about 6-7 normal stars. It would be highly unlikely to find intelligent life within such a small number.

A 50 light years large neighborhood contains about 2000 stars, with 80% red dwarfs - still a relatively small number.

The mathematical probability of finding alien life improves if we extend our search over 250 light years radius, within which we find an estimated 260 000 stars. Should we ever receive any intelligent signal it would most likely come from this small part of the Orion arm which constitutes part of the Milky Way.

However, we have to keep in mind that at this distance communications would be mostly a one way street. Because if we receive a signal from 250 light years away it would require another 250 years to answer and a return answer would not come back before 500 years!



Further obstacles to find other civilizations

A further complication can be demonstrated by the following consideration - let's call it the eggshell theory.

The thickness of an expanding eggshell in this theory would represent the space-timespan within which a scientific civilization would be able to broadcast its signals to other worlds before its own civilization expired.

Let's assume some distant planet had developed an advanced scientific civilization. It would be extremely unlikely that such a civilzation would have developed exactly at the same time as our own here on earth. It could have occured - let's say - two million years ago. ( If we take into account that the formation of our own solar sytem occured around 5,000 million years ago a 2 million year difference would be miniscule ).

Let's further assume that the lifespan of a scientific civilization would be 100 000 years - a very generous assumption. We only have to look at the fragile state of human affairs here on earth. Is it very likely that mankind will survive for more than a few thousand years after the onset of the nuclear age? ( If we consider the risks of nuclear war, the long term effects of global warming and a myriad of other problems it seems problematic that our scientific civilization will survive for more than 100 000 years).

That would not neccessarily be different on an another planet. If such an alien civilization had broadcast its existence for all of 100 000 years, but starting two million years ago, the timespan - or the thickness of the eggshell - would have radiated out from the originating planet at the speed of light. It would mean this electronic wave (the eggshell) would have hit our earth two million years ago but it would have lasted for only 100 000 years. So we would have missed it since at that time only primitive hominids roamed the African continent, barely having invented primitive stone tools.

Similarly, our own electronic projection - starting less than one hundred years ago - would hit another planet millions of years after its civilization had expired, or alternatively, long before it evolved. In that case no communication would be possible because we would attempt to communicate with each other millions of years apart. The probability that an expanding eggshell from one civilization would intersect another civilzation exactly at the right time when the receiving civilization would be able to detect such signals would certainly be 'astronomically' small, that is, almost non-existent.

On the other hand, if we assume a much more optimistic estimate - let's say a potential civilization would have evolved - 'progressed' - over several million years, then another possibility arises. The late Dr. Carl Sagan pointed out that such an extremely advanced civilization might have no interest whatsoever in our primitive human species. The gap would be too immense and such aliens would conceivably look at us, as we look at lower forms of life, such as insects for example. Or they might just ignore us as so underdeveloped that communication with us would be a waste of their time.

A more optimistic scenario

It has to be conceded that if the "Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence" (SETI) should find any intelligent signal in the future the above theories would have to be revised!
For more optimistic persons see Setiathome. Setiathome is a scientific experiment that uses Internet-connected computers in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. Anyone can participate by running a free program that downloads and analyzes radio telescope data.

Should we detect any intelligent signals from outer space that certainly would be very exiting because it would expand our understanding of alien life forms enormously.
However, the fact remains that communication would - for all practical reasons - still be a one way street because our answer would not receive a response from a potential alien world for several hundred years !



posted on Aug, 14 2008 @ 11:14 AM
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Personally I think we are far from bieng the only life in this seemingly endless universe. The universe is too big, and it's getting bigger, the possibilites for life are infinite. Who's to say that there is no life on venus, or mercury??? Life that can only survive under extreme heat. Who's to say that life hasn't flourished on jupiter??? Life that can only survive under extreme pressure, or that lives by breathing its gases, or some other mechanism to survive on it. That is only in our solar system. There are around 400 billion stars in our galaxy alone, many of them containing planets. I'm sure a large portion of them may contain some sort of life, be it primitive organisms or sentient biengs. Then we can go into the endless number of other galaxies that each have their own billions of stars. Add it up and it comes to a ridiculously huge number of stars, a good majority of wich have planets, and endless possibilities for life.

OFF TOPIC

As far as aliens visiting earth goes, as much as I'd like to believe that it occurs, I have to admit that there is no evidence to prove it is real. I'd like to believe the videos on youtube that show UFOs hovering, or the videos that show nothing but lights. I would like to believe they are real, although when every video that comes out is a blurry mess, it is kind of hard to believe the videos are authentic.



PS. I'd just like to say that everytime I think of the size of these cellestial objects, I never stop bieng amazed. It is utterly ridiculous how huge planets, stars, and galaxies can get. Our star makes the earth look like nothing but a grain of sand. There are stars out there that make our star look like nothing but a grain of sand. WOW

Take a look at these pics and be blown away






posted on Aug, 14 2008 @ 12:48 PM
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yes if ever a signal was found it would be a multi generational effort to exchange messages. There's sci-fi books about this type of scenario.

the most optimistic scenario would be to detect a signal which is instructions on how to build a device that accesses the E.T "broadband" communication system. You know sub space or quantum technology that we dont have yet. Allowing faster ways to exchange information.

the classic "technological uplift" scenario evryone dreams about


[edit on 14-8-2008 by yeti101]



posted on Aug, 14 2008 @ 09:21 PM
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reply to post by yeti101
 



Is that an artist's rendition of what one of jupiter's moons would look like if it was habitable for humans??? Wow, that view would be beautiful



posted on Aug, 15 2008 @ 06:20 AM
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I'm also convinced there is other intelligent live in the universe. Thats all I need, I need no prove because I'm sure we can not understand it or even identify it as prove. Whose saying a strange shadow isn't a alien or that having goosebumps on a unpredictable moment (out of the blue) isn't the result of gentle touch of an alien.

Things written in the article are based on to many "earthly facts", which probaly won't go in any other civilizations. And why is spoken about a 100.000 year existence of civlizations if on our planet we have discovered that de dinosaurs existed for over 220.000.000 years! Ok, maybe they were not civilized, but it shows that long existance is possible.

Have you ever thought that alien lifeforms could be as big as moons or as small as bacteria? Even intelligent ones? I think the number of civilizations possible even extent our own fantasy.

I doubt we will ever be confrontated with a different civilizaton (our space brothers), but who knows?



posted on Sep, 28 2008 @ 10:41 AM
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well I am no scientist but I'm sure there are very good reasons that scientists in regard to life search for water or hydrogen rich planets, in a "habitable" zone not too close or too far from the star. I mean, we know which elements are most abundant in the universe and how they react to each other. I think because of our understanding of how chemistry works the only way life could exist is with a carbon base. My imagination goes wild when I think of alien machines. It could very well be true that alien civilizations have advanced to the point of consisting of nothing but machines with seemingly infinite intelligence, feeding directly from the energy of their entire galaxy.



posted on Sep, 29 2008 @ 03:38 PM
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I think the probability of contacting intelligent life is high, if the right technology is used. We can't depend on radio waves, like we have in the past. Sending a golden record and waiting just isn't going to get much response.


None of that matters though, as I also think contact has already been made, and has been going on for a long time. We are the contactee, not the contacters. We are no where old enough or smart enough to do these things alone. Sadly the public is not told these things, for (IMO) religious reasons.



I have to admit that there is no evidence to prove it is real.


You knew someone would point you out on this.


There is plenty of evidence. We just have to dig through the fakes and blurs. Instead of debating this and getting way off topic, I'd just like to point you to this. Personally, I don't know how the fact that Earth is being observed and studied by other intelligent life can get any clearer.

I want to thank you for posting those scale pictures! I came across those in an email a few months ago, but they got lost somewhere in the mix. I was never able to find them again, until now.



posted on Sep, 29 2008 @ 05:33 PM
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Originally posted by saturnus1962
I'm also convinced there is other intelligent live in the universe.


I'm also convinced there is NO intelligent live in the universe.

We aren't that smart. We are here from survival, now is inevitable, and the future is not certain.

The intelligence you refer to is our own definition and there is no present measure for any comparison.



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