Peak Oil

Apocalyptic scenarios, without evidence, proliferate too much media. Perhaps these draw attention from actual concerns that are proven and affect every facet of modern civilization. But many experts do report the dire nature of oil consumption versus reserve capacity. For example, the article, "Demographic Demand and Peak Oil," by Andrew McKillop of Petroleumworld.com (linked below), is an industry insider's account of the facts. Given the worldwide supply and demand requires the discovery of reserves equivalent to "a new Saudi Arabia every 2 years."

Hydrocarbons are poised to become the most valuable commodity ever known. Though rarely reported, the peak of petroleum production was in 2000. Alternatively, liberal estimates place the peak in 2008. While demand grows unabated, the quantity of oil that CAN be extracted is now decreasing more rapidly than ever. And there is no surprise actually, total reserves started dropping in 1859 when the first well was completed. Finally in 1965, new discoveries of potential reserves peaked. Since then due to crises, conservation efforts barely slowed exponential demand increases. Now that supply is ever-decreasing, those who control it are poised to make many billions, perhaps trillions. Because wars are waged for resources (whatever the ulterior motive), national interests require forces to be deployed in critical territories. Is there any way that the US would let itself be left out of the game of the millenium?

This not a re-run of the oil crises of the 1970s. They were like the tremors before an earthquake, but serious enough to tip the world into recession. Now comes the tremblor itself. However, the present shock is very different. It is driven by resource constraints, not politics, but of course political factors are considerable. Moreover, it is not a temporary interruption but the onset of a permanent new condition. The warning flags have been flying for a long time. They have been plain to see, but the world turned a blind eye, and message remained unread.

Petroleum is absolutely not renewable unless you count a pitifully tiny fraction of biodiesel. However, huge resources could be obtained if oil sands and shales could be exploited. But in that form, it takes more energy to extract the oil than can be generated from it. Even if a more efficient means of extraction is developed, it simply could never be as cost effective as pumping liquid from wells. Hence, expensive petroleum would result, and would not allay the current conumdrum. Similarly, ethanol also consumes more energy per gallon to produce than it can generate. The only reason that it is a fuel additive at present is due to huge, Republican farm subsidies. Timely warnings went unheeded, now we pay for the myopia.

Little of the popular media is interested, perhaps it is far too unpopular to report. But a cursory search of "peak oil" produces manifold confirmation of the foregoing assertions from credible sources. Here's a few:

www.petroleumworld.com...

www.peakoil.net...

www.mbendi.co.za...

hubbert.mines.edu...

www.oilempire.us...

I do not know what the big deal is because we can switch to diesel engines which run on vegetable oil. You can drain any diesel engine of its fuel, fill the tank with vegetable oil and fire it up. It has been done time and again and I do not know why it is not popular.

[Edited on 3-15-2004 by groingrinder]

About 25 years ago I can remember them saying we would be running out about now, but I guess they were wrong.

There's plenty of alternative sources of energy, but they are not currently cost effective. Eventually the price of gas will make these other sources of energy cost effective. Will there be hardships before & during the conversion - Yes absolutely, but not doom & gloom just change.

There are cities that haven't allowed combustable engine based vehicals for over 30 years, so I'm sure the rest of us will adjust.

groingrinder:

Even if if the simplistic possibility you cite had more of a basis in reality, how does the price of vegetable oil compare with fossil hydrocarbons? And how much energy does it take to produce such oil compared with the energy generated from it? As I mentioned, biodiesel (not simply vegetable oil) is used, though meets only a tiny fraction of energy needs. Supposing that it were just a matter of pouring vegetable oil into vehicle fuel tanks, then taking all similar oils from every factory and everyone's pantries, we would burn it up in days! Should we then wait for next year's harvest? And forget about the luxury of eating bread or any other product derived from cereal grains. One will no longer be able to say, "Let them eat cake."

Your solution might be feasible when crude reaches $100 per barrel. Certainly, many ideas are needed now, but few are developed into practicality. One other "minor" point, how do we all switch to diesel engines? Sounds simple, like flicking a light switch, but who can pick up that cost?

first off, it is not the end of the world, like outsider said, there are plenty of alternative sources for energy such as hydrogen, or electricity, or even nuclear which is almost infinite. Hydrogen power cells will be the most likely, cost and enviromently effective source of energy that will be used in the next century of so.

Us runing out of oil is no big deal, the only thing oil is used now adays is for oil burners in homes and other things.

outsider:

"They" (whomever that is) were obviously not very well informed even for their time. For many years, the capacity of reserves versus usage has been assessed. And because the problem is critical, attempts were made to develop alternatives. Unfortunately, development of such was half-hearted and the topic became a political football.

Please read some of the material from the links I posted. Of course, I took care to select resources from people who actually know the situation. This is something I've been following for twenty years, within the field of geology. Now, I am certain of the veracity of certain sources.

You make the point of cost-effectiveness as if it were just a color scheme or some optional equipment. But you're right, when gasoline is $10 per gallon, all kinds of alternatives will be employed, but how expensive are those methods? And can they be used to fulfill all of what petroleum does, including 80% of energy production? Because CHEAP petroleum is literally the lifeblood of our culture, what will expensive oil and alternatives do to the economy, everywhere?

ShatteredSkies:

Where do you get your information?!?

Please, do some actual research on the topic.

Merely "waving off" the facts is no solution.

You imply, "oh, someone will take care it..."

the arrival of "peak oil" on the curve and our descent past that point will, IMHO, be the beginning of great socio-political changes in society - if western society makes it through the changes (will involve us taking our collective heads out of our arses), the new technologies that will have to be put in place (a question of allocating currently misused financial resources) will help in many areas, not just those commonly associated with fossil fuels...big changes a'comin', people!!

Aeon10101110 is correct. Oil production has not surpassed the totals in 2000. You may look at the IEA or EIA for proof of this. Another problem that hasn't been mentioned, is the growing demand for oil in Asia. China has passed Japan as the 2nd largest oil importer.

Assumptions that hydrogen will be a source of fuel are incorrect. Hydrogen is an energy carrier, and using it is actually a net loss of energy. It takes more energy to produce the hydrogen, than you can get from it. I used to believe in the hydrogen myth too until I actually did some research on it. Now I wonder if my children will actually drive cars. Insurance will be cheap compared to gas then.

only thing oil is used now adays is for oil burners in homes and other things.

The "other things" happens to be 95% of transportation. How do you suppose we harvest the huge crops in the U.S.? With gasoline powered tractors. How does the harvested food get to market? With gasoline powered vehicles. You could carry this on to every item you get that isn't grown or produced in your back yard.

So either we are destined for,..

Expensive fossil fuels for another half a century, or..

An expensive alternative, to also become captive to, or..


We come up with a cheap-to-process fuel that has,
something with an 'equally' available root source,
obtainable, and somewhat 'clean' in manufacture and usage.

producing new oil? Everyday? You can't tell me that plant life and carbon have quit being part of the ecosystem. It's all B.S.

Originally posted by ShatteredSkies
first off, it is not the end of the world, like outsider said, there are plenty of alternative sources for energy such as hydrogen, or electricity, or even nuclear which is almost infinite. Hydrogen power cells will be the most likely, cost and enviromently effective source of energy that will be used in the next century of so.

Us runing out of oil is no big deal, the only thing oil is used now adays is for oil burners in homes and other things.

Where do you think plastic comes from?

There are many many products and marketable by-products sourced from oil.

more...Solvents, cleaners, paints, and yes,...plastics are a very big chunk of usage in every aspect and MOST products and their packaging contain portions of plastic.

Originally posted by GrndLkNatv
producing new oil? Everyday? You can't tell me that plant life and carbon have quit being part of the ecosystem. It's all B.S.

Do you have any idea where oil comes from and why we have to drill to 20,000 feet on the average to get it. Hint. time and pressure

Polar Bear

Originally posted by smirkley
So either we are destined for,..

Expensive fossil fuels for another half a century, or..

Actually it's more like a quarter of a century and the Industrial Revolution will be over as the wheels grind to a halt

Polar Bear

Well let's see,

CHECK IT OUT


Dear Reader,

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global �Peak Oil� and related geo-political events.

So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocalypse Bible prophesy readers? To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world. And this is what's so scary.

The situation is so dire that even George W. Bush's Energy Adviser, Matthew Simmons, has acknowledged that "The situation is desperate. This is the world's biggest serious question."

According to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, "America faces a major energy supply crisis over the next two decades. The failure to meet this challenge will threaten our nation's economic prosperity, compromise our national security, and literally alter the way we lead our lives."

the rest is here, especially for staunch shrub supporters

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net...

Voices of lucidity! Your confirmations are very well taken, Dr, dbates, smirkley, TPL & Polar Bear. You all realize the fundamental dependence of "westernized" civilization on cheap oil. Very soon, we will all see the unfortunate confirmation of the warnings we noted in the 1970's. Given the volumes of petroleum production information, not to mention geological explorations, it appears that we would be lucky to continue present consumption rates for five more years (even without the accelerating demands). But with prices exceeding $2/gal already this year, the market forces are apparently taking hold. Does anyone have a more accurate estimate of how long prices can remain below $40/bbl? Not that that is a critical point, but it may help to get an idea of the unfolding timetable of shortages.

the problem with the theory here is that one day we suddenly discover there is no more oil. it wont happen that way.

the way it will happen is that the easiest / lowest cost sources will be depleted first and over time as the supply becomes increasingly expensive to extract/refine the price of the end products will increase. as this happens this will spur more effort in research into alternative sources of energy. when the cost of oil exceeds the cost of the alternatives we will be switching over heavily to the alternatives.

the economy adjusts to scarcity of resources all the time.

Originally posted by Aeon10101110
Does anyone have a more accurate estimate of how long prices can remain below $40/bbl?

Well considering the current currency exchange inbalances, OPEC loses 40% of the barrel value when selling in Dollar's compared to the euro.

IE - as soon as the currency trade inbalance get's corrected somehow, and it will, oil will be 40% higher.
This if supply and demand remain constant.

So any shortage, will only agrivate the potential for a big increase in prices.

Three bucks a gallon might be remembered as the 'good-ol-days' fairly soon for many reason's.


..



[Edited on 15-3-2004 by smirkley]

good job polar bear
weve only got so long
Its the final countdown