Dollar soaring this week

just thought i should mention the american dollar has had it's strongest week in a long time.

the chart below shows you what kind of spike they are getting

quotes.ino.com...

interesting to me that the dollar is spiking at the same time everyone reallizes the gov't is using more tax payer money to bailout fannie and freddie.


however this is good for lower gas prices, it's funny i just saw an article on why oil is going down, and nobody mentioned the dollar.

seems The ECB's trichet signaled that rate hikes were done, and growth concerns were materializing

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com... which gives the dollar room to "run"


one thing that all fiat currency's have in common i.e dollar, yen, euro, RMB, is that over time , they all fall at different rates, so when one is strengthing against the other, does not necessarily mean it is stronger, (just sinking slower). This is why the dollar could rally, and commodity's could get hit hard.

However my opinion is the bernake fed has nightmare's about deflation and they see dollar devaluation as a means to stay away from "it" so i would suspect bernanke would cut in tandem w/ trichet of the ECB.


[edit on 8-8-2008 by cpdaman]

OK.. the US$ is gaining strength & value this week...

but i suggest that the rise in the US$ is not as we are led to believe
which goes something like; the rise in the dollar is because the ECB is not going to raise or lower their prime-rate.


i suggest that the Saudi and other Gulf States are helping to manipulate the US$ by allowing the price on spot oil and oil futures to fall...
which in effect allows the US$ to 'get stronger' or have more 'value',

i suggest that the
USA and these economic allies are manipulating the apparent value of the US$, with a future taget of ~$100 oil ?...so that the consumer driven world economy can stay on somewhat of a even but shrinking keel.


After all... all those Arab Soverign Wealth Fund monies that bought into Citigroup and other financial entities here in the USA stand the prospect of becoming next to worthless unless the USA financial house of cards can manage to survive.



A short term rollback of a couple hundred Billion in oil prices would be a smart move to save all those hundreds of Billions in real assets that would be totally 'lost' if the US$ and world markets really shut down


thanks




btw, there's been quiet agreements lately between the USA and Saudi kingdom, can you believe that Saudi (in concert) with the CIA are constructing Saudi prisons, to handle some 18,000 inmates, to be ready just as Guantanimo prison is shut down ?
What other operations are being played out...especially financial ones involving the US$ as the global reserve currency... hmmmm

yes St udio i read a good article stating that point by i believe Mr. Turk linked on the dollarcollapse.com website

well for america's sake we better hope the dollar remains the world reserve currency, or all the imbalances, and reliance on a credit led societ, will come home to roost. And perhaps this will be done in a gradual way, because anything to radical would cause a bit to much chaos.

ST udio what are you thoughts on the future for the petro dollar? A change to a basket of currencies?

do you think bretton woods II will break down (nuriel rubini had a good article on this a while back)

do some changes need to be made so that the country's in more resourceful spots regarding their "credit cycle's" or their short/mid term prospects for creating debt, can be transformed more into consumer economy's , while the USA may undergo a transition of our own. What you think St dio


[edit on 13-8-2008 by cpdaman]

Anyone see what's going on with metals tonight?ino.com Exchanges-metals

Looks like metals are getting creamed tonight, especially silver.

The velocity of the rise in the dollar has been pretty impressive of late.

Edit

Move in metals retraced since i noticed it, but silver was down 15% at one point tonight and gold was down 6% at one point.

Udio has some pretty interesting analysis for the current rise in the $, and his opinion is a definate possiblillity. There are really only a couple of other possibillities. Most debts in the world are denominated in $, could some large players currently be in the process of deleveraging? If the strong $ keeps up it's going to kill earnings on those companies who were deriving alot of their revenue from overseas.


[edit on 15-8-2008 by jefwane]

reply to post by jefwane


I originally posted this in another thread. It seems appropriate here.
(15/8/08)
I went into a coin shop today to reluctantly sell 1/2 oz of platinum to pay bills. After the transaction, the dealer told me that he is completely out of gold. Just then another customer, over hearing us, said that he was there hoping to by some gold. In all the years I have been doing business there, this is the first time that he has been sold out of gold.

I am assuming the situation is similar through out the country/world. Have any other ATS’ers out there notice a similar situation.

It seems to me that despite what the ministry of propaganda is telling us, There is currently a large demand for physical gold.

This was just posted on kitco.com. It speaks for its self.

IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.

reply to post by graysquirrel


I've heard that in more than a couple of places. In the past, I've noticed coin dealers reluctant to sell thier stock after a substantial pullback. Whether it's an actual shortage, or simply that the local coin dealer doesn't want to sell at a loss remains to be seen. Two of the possibilities going on 1) Actual shortage 2) Smaller suppliers bought their current stock at a higher price, and a reluctant to take a loss by selling now. I'm unconvinced of an actual shortage while price is trending lower.

Given the recent degradation of the Geo-political climate, I'm rather surprised to see such a hard pullback on metals, oil, and ag commodities. I do hold a small amount of physical metal as a TEOTWAKI hedge, but I hopped out of GLD and SLV (ETFs that track what you think they would) last year.

First of all, jefwane, I commend you for taking notice of this situation.

As regards to your second option of smaller suppliers reluctant to sell, please note that kitco.com is no small suppler. They are large and they are international. They may be willing to “promise” delivery at these prices, but, that fact is they can’t make immediate delivery.

Under free market principles, the price of gold should rise until there is enough sellers to maintain a minimal stock at the suppliers/distributors.

reply to post by graysquirrel

I am assuming the situation is similar through out the country/world. Have any other ATS’ers out there notice a similar situation.

Seems to be the case GS...not only in the US...but major Gold centers globally are reporting increased demand for fabricated product...shortages & back-orders.

India: Price fall leads to gold rush, shortsupply

All the major dealers appear to be dry. Since they supply coin shops, it follows that the smaller retailers would either be out of inventory...asking enormous premiums for what they do have, or simply reluctant to sell at a loss. The idea that major dealers are sitting on inventory until prices rise doesn't hold water. These reputable wholesalers, each turn thousands of ounces of Gold & Silver every day. To operate successfully, their business has to be structured to accommodate the most extreme market volatility, ie...their acquisitions are always adequately hedged in the futures market.

Aside from distress-sales, apparently not much is returning from the street either...exacerbating the shortage. Imo, this type of hoarding can be seen as an extension of; Bad money drives-out good money.

Old story. Declining prices spark intense buying pressure from more knowledgeable investors/traders....the less knowledgeable will show-up near the top of the next run

Once all the leverage gets flushed from the short dollar/long commodities trade, I expect PM's to bottom & resume.

I also believe that the dollar and the oil are manipulated, like I said before this is all linked to the coming elections to pave a favorite path for the administration and the Republican party.

I am an skeptical so I will believe that we are in the path to improvement after the elections and when the deceiving stimulus check euphoria is over.

I will tag this this thread to comeback later after the elections.